On May 30, Donald Trump was convicted of all 34 felony counts of “falsifying business records” by a unanimous verdict of 12 jurors in the first trial of his state criminal “hush-money” case in New York State, an outcome that sent shockwaves through the United States and beyond. Despite being convicted of an unprecedented number of felonies, the former U.S. president will fight to defeat incumbent President Joe Biden in the upcoming election.
A fraud trial?
The trial, which took place in Manhattan, New York, went through two days of deliberations before a 12-member jury announced Thursday afternoon that it had found Trump guilty on all 34 counts he faced. A unanimous jury verdict was required on any of the 34 counts. Trump is expected to appeal. The day after the verdict, the Republican presidential candidate cited a series of grievances against his rivals in an angry, rambling speech. Trump pleaded with supporters to donate to his campaign and said the challenges he faces are more than he can bear alone, “because we are fighting for America”.
And the day after Trump became the first former U.S. president and presidential candidate ever to be criminally convicted, incumbent U.S. President Joe Biden finally broke his silence on Trump’s case and responded positively, stating that the U.S. justice system is the bedrock of the United States, and that Trump had been given “all the chances to defend himself that he deserved.” Biden also criticized Trump for “saying that judicial trials are rigged because he doesn’t like the outcome. That’s reckless, dangerous and irresponsible. Voters are split on whether the hush-money case against Trump is politically motivated, with 52 percent saying the prosecution is primarily about upholding the rule of law and 46 percent saying it is about preventing Trump from returning to the White House.
Trump supporters, most of whom believe the New York ruling was a miscarriage of justice, donated $34.8 million to Trump’s campaign in just one day last Thursday. That’s Trump’s one-day high on WinRed – the platform that handles fundraising for the Republican network. Nearly every Republican official and organization backed the former president, arguing that the trial was flawed, that the charges should never have been filed, that there were problems with the jury in heavily Democratic Manhattan, and that the judge was biased. But local authorities denied the charges.
Trump’s conviction marks a number of historic ‘firsts’ – he is the first US president to be convicted of a crime and the first presumptive nominee of a major party to become a felon. Trump plans to appeal the hush-money case, and the judge is set to hand down a sentence on July 11, which could theoretically include a prison sentence and a hefty fine, but it’s not too early to consider the political ramifications. However, given the unprecedented nature of the incident, this will also be difficult.
However, if Trump were to be sentenced to prison, and if he were to be elected, he would be the first US president to govern from prison. It’s a mind-boggling possibility, but it’s possible. Of course, if Trump were elected, he could exercise his presidential power and pardon himself so that this would not happen. But would Trump do that? I don’t know.
Can Trump survive this?
Too many scandals, allegations of sexual and financial misconduct, and two impeachments have failed to bring Trump down. Now that he’s been convicted of a felony, can he and his campaign survive? Voters will now make their own judgment, as Trump, the presumptive Republican nominee for president, heads toward the Nov. 5 election and uses this trial and the other indictments he faces to rally his supporters.
The felony conviction comes on the heels of a new Reuters and Ipsos poll showing that 10 percent of registered Republican voters say they are less likely to vote for Trump. The two-day poll showed that 56 percent of registered Republican voters said Trump’s guilty verdict would not affect their vote; 35 percent said they were more likely to support Trump. For Trump, losing one in 10 Republican voters could be more serious than receiving strong support from more than one-third of Republicans – after all, many of the former are people who would likely have voted for Trump regardless of his conviction.
It has already been shown that Trump’s conviction, while making him more popular with his supporters, is being questioned in the community. If this situation continues, there is a possibility that the middle-of-the-road voters may not support him so actively. Therefore, during this sensitive period, Trump has to be more careful not to lose the middle-of-the-road voters. At the same time, President Biden is also seen to be taking extra care of his image during this period. President Biden’s son is also in trouble with the law at this time, but Biden has not made a lot of comments on his own initiative, that’s why.
Of course, the American electorate’s feelings about the hush-money case may be lessened because it happened eight years ago. While a conviction is not a good thing, what voters will be thinking about in November will be inflation, the southern border, competition with China and Russia, and money spent on Israel and Ukraine. It is understood that the incarceration will not prevent Trump from running for office, nor will it prevent him from taking office if he wins. The Republican Party expects to nominate Trump as its presidential candidate at its July 15-18 national convention in Milwaukee. Republican analysis suggests that by the day of voting, Trump’s conviction will have had little impact on voters’ thoughts.
Professor Alan Leachman, a scholar of American political history, has constructed a political model that has successfully predicted the winners and losers of every presidential campaign since 1984. But he has to admit that Trump’s criminal conviction could be an “unprecedented and catastrophic” turn of events that would put the model in jeopardy and alter the course of history. There are still more than five months to go before the U.S. presidential election, which means things could still change dramatically between now and November 5th. If the former president loses, his guilty verdict will likely be cited as one of the reasons why; if he wins, it could be just a footnote in Trump’s tumultuous yet far-reaching political career.
Trump-Biden Rematch
American historians are accustomed to looking at the founding of the United States and the events of its 200-plus years of history for contemporary insights, but there has never been anything like it in the entire history of the United States. Given that this is a domestic political development in the United States, Australian politicians have chosen not to comment on the outcome of the trial, but have said that Australia’s relationship with the U.S. is more important than any one person, any one leader, or any one government, and that the outcome of November’s U.S. election, undoubtedly one of the most important political events of the year, is bound to have far-reaching consequences.
Whether or not Trump is convicted of a crime and sentenced to prison does not affect his eligibility to run for president. The U.S. Constitution only lists three requirements for the presidency: a candidate must be a “natural born” citizen, be at least 35 years old, and have lived in the U.S. for at least 14 years, and it does not require that the president not be a convicted felon. There is no requirement that the president not be a convicted felon. Historically, there have been a few presidential candidates who have run for office after being indicted or convicted of a crime. However, U.S. presidential elections are usually decided by narrow margins in a few hotly contested swing states, which means that even a small number of voters who turn their backs on a candidate can have a significant impact.
What’s hard to understand is why many Americans are sticking with Trump versus Biden. Both men are young, and Biden’s senile behavior, which has long been a topic of conversation in the United States, has not been a source of pressure for the Democratic Party not to support Biden’s reelection. In fact, no Democratic leader is in a position to challenge the unimpressive Biden. Similarly, no other Republican candidate has a higher popularity and support rating than Trump. It is fair to say that the American community is generally in favor of a repeat of the last election with two controversial candidates.
The fairness of the last US election was controversial, and it is not yet known whether it will happen again this time. However, the trial of Trump’s case is believed to be the prelude to the controversy.
Analysts say Trump’s approval ratings have dropped slightly as a result of the trial, and that could also affect the presidential race. In key states like Wisconsin or Pennsylvania, if a few thousand voters who had supported the former president stayed home, it could have a huge impact. After all, young voters, as well as college-educated suburban voters, have long had concerns about Trump’s demeanor and approach to government, and a guilty verdict would further exacerbate those concerns.
When incumbent President Biden and former President Trump go head-to-head in 2020, they have already set a record for the oldest U.S. presidential elector. In a historically unique and troubling scenario, these two political veterans are bound to set their own previous records. But Biden’s and Trump’s ages are not enough to make a difference in this election, and what has caught the world’s attention is the fact that the U.S. justice system is once again intervening in the election, and is likely to play a pivotal role. Trump’s campaign is currently unencumbered and remains highly competitive in the polls, but not all of the questions that have arisen, and will likely arise, from subsequent sentencing and other unresolved cases have clear answers in the Constitution and federal law. These questions will take the United States into a truly uncharted territory, where major decisions will depend on the discretion of a few federal judges. Obviously, the Framers never imagined in more than 200 years that the United States would find itself in this position.
Is there any other possibility?
The U.S. presidential election, scheduled for November 5 of this year, still has independent candidates and small parties in addition to the two major parties. If the candidates of the two major parties are not recognized by the voters, is there a possibility that the independent candidates will win in the end?
Robert Kennedy’s son is currently running as an independent candidate, but his approval rate is less than 6%, so it is almost impossible for him to be a competitor between Biden and Trump. Of course, if Biden and Trump in the campaign period, if there is a sudden important event, affecting voters’ thinking, the situation may change. However, the Democrats and Republicans can also put forward other candidates within a short period of time, so the impact of these variables is not likely to be significant.
It seems that there are only 5 months left in this year’s US Presidential Election, and the whole world will be watching to see if the drama of the last election will happen again this year.