Ukraine Counterattacks Russia War Takes a Major Turn

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Article/Blessing CALD Editorial；Photo/Internet

After nearly 30 months of stalemate, the situation of the Russian-Ukrainian war is undergoing an important change.

After a recent Ukrainian raid on Russia’s home state of Kursk on the border between the two countries, Russia has evacuated tens of thousands of residents from the border and announced an anti-terrorist operation in three areas of the border. The anti-terrorist operation is designed to give the military full control over local activities, including communications surveillance. Russia has also launched a counter-attack, and while more information on the actual fighting between the two sides is awaited, it is worth keeping an eye on the possible changes in the fighting situation, which may have a number of implications.

Beautiful Strategic Counterattack
A few days ago, the Ukrainian army pushed 30 kilometres into Russia, which is the deepest and most significant counter-attack since Moscow’s February 2022 full-scale invasion of Ukraine. Ukraine’s surprise counterattack on the Russian mainland, successfully burning the fire into the Russian mainland and hitting the Russian army in the loosely defended (weak) Kursk region, is a major victory for Ukraine in the battlefield, which completely breaks Russia’s original rhythm of attack, reduces the pressure on the Ukrainian mainland’s defence, and at the same time, demonstrates to Russia that Ukraine has the military capability to cross the border and attack the Russian mainland to hit the Russian army hard. At the same time, it demonstrated to Russia that Ukraine’s cross-border attack on Russia’s territory was capable of dealing a serious blow to the Russian army. More importantly, this attack changed the existing battlefield situation: ‘If the enemy can go, we can also go’.

Although the Ukrainian attack was unexpected by Moscow, the Russian army has already started to reinforce its front line. Whether it can effectively counterattack the Ukrainian army and recapture the lost ground will let the outside world see clearly the strength of the Russian army at the moment. The Russians are wary of attacking Ukraine in the future, so they have to allocate a lot of military power and resources to strengthen the border defence work, while dispersing and weakening the military power of the Russian army to attack Ukraine. The military strength of this counter-attack, which can penetrate into the Russian mainland and severely damage the Russian army, will surely be an important bargaining chip for the Ukrainian side in the future Russian-Ukrainian armistice negotiation, so as to fight for a better armistice condition for Ukraine.

In addition, with Russia’s inability to revive its Black Sea fleet in the short term, it is also worth paying attention to whether Ukraine’s offensive in the south is likely to regain control of Crimea. The dominance of Crimea is also a bargaining chip for both sides in the coming negotiations. After all, not long ago, both Russia and Ukraine released their willingness to negotiate and their respective conditions. The Ukrainian army’s surprise attack at this time is clearly intended to use war to force the negotiations, and to accumulate more bargaining chips for the negotiations that may follow. The background of this strategic idea was the insistence of the Kiev authorities on the idea of recovering full sovereignty over all the lost territories, and Kiev’s desired outcome could only be realised if it could effectively consolidate and even expand its gains within Russian territory. However, Russia said on 14 August that it would withdraw its previous ‘generous’ peace terms because of the Ukrainian attack on Russia. However, Ukraine has always scorned Russia’s ‘favourable’ peace terms, and Russia’s withdrawal of these terms can be regarded as a totally powerless response.

The international situation has become more uncertain
In this new wave of war, the strength of Moscow’s counter-attacks against the Ukrainian army and the strength of its operational strength are of great importance. If the Russian army fails to counter-attack effectively or shows signs of military disillusionment, it may lead to the spread of the whole body, which may inspire Ukraine to take over more territories under the superior force, and it may also affect the attitude of the Western society towards the war. For Ukraine, the cross-border attack has greatly boosted public morale at a time when it is undermanned and underarmed, with a frontline of more than 1,000 kilometres facing relentless Russian attacks. It helps reverse the disappointment of domestic and international allies that it has been bogged down in a battle of positions over the past few months in a major counter-offensive in the east, and gives the outside world more confidence.

The Biden administration has supported the Ukrainian war effort for more than two years, but has been reluctant to let the Ukrainian army counterattack on Russian soil in order to avoid escalating the war and drawing NATO into the fray. Washington changed its position in the middle of this year, acquiescing to Ukraine’s use of U.S.-made weapons to counterattack the Russian mainland, mainly for the sake of more quickly in the battlefield to gain a clear advantage, if there can be a big reversal in the Biden presidency, the Democratic Party’s overall election in November will be favourable to the actual results of the war to offset Trump boasts of a day to solve the myth of the war. European countries are willing to accelerate their support for the Ukrainian counterattack, but they are also looking at the possibility of variables unfavourable to Europe once Trump takes office.

It remains to be seen how long Ukraine can hold out this time. But there is no doubt that the Ukrainian offensive has embarrassed China, Russia and North Korea. For Moscow, the attack has once again breached Putin’s red line, or even bottom line, which is the use of nuclear weapons in the event of an attack on the Russian mainland or the eastern states. Even in a conventional war, Putin faces a dilemma: if he goes all out to counterattack, he will smash his own cities and damage the image of love for the people that he has worked so hard to build; and if he responds slowly, he will let Ukrainian troops stay on the mainland longer, which will not be good for his image either. The Chinese Communists and North Koreans are also embarrassed – because it makes their commitment to Russia look like a double-edged sword.

Reaction of European Countries
All along, the European countries and the United States have been providing military equipment for Ukraine to fight against Russia in the hope that Ukraine would be able to withstand Russia’s attack, and eventually Russia would seek reconciliation when it could no longer support itself. However, the peace proposal demanded by the European countries is not easy to achieve. As China, North Korea or other countries keep supplying Russia with arms, and the economic sanctions against Russia are obviously ineffective, some European countries will have to re-schedule their long-term support to Ukraine after the election of a new government, and in the face of the possibility that Donald Trump may come back to power in the United States to bring about uncertainties, the European countries obviously welcome this attack by Ukraine.

The German government said it had no problem with Ukraine using weapons they supplied on Russian soil, and considered the attack an acceptable tactic in Ukraine’s fight against Russia. Other European countries have not made many public statements, it seems to depend on Russia’s response to the incident, and do not want to provoke Russia too much at this time. However, military analysts believe that Ukraine will not, and does not need to, occupy the Kursk region for a long time, but the outcome will depend on whether Russia can quickly drive the Ukrainian army out of the occupied area.

Dilemma
The Ukrainian counter-offensive against Russia may seem easy, but looking at the whole region, it doesn’t mean that the war will be over anytime soon. The Kursk region is an area of about 50 miles by 20 miles, insignificant in terms of the size of Russia and Ukraine, but far more important in terms of political implications. This counterattack is a testament to the effectiveness of the Ukrainian strategy over the past year of insisting on trading space for time to maximise the depletion of Russian military resources. The Russian army had been stretched so thin on the long front that it could not muster enough troops to stop the attack even a week after the mainland was taken.

The Ukrainian invasion of Russia’s Kursk Oblast and the rapid occupation of the territory humiliated Putin and boosted the morale of the Ukrainian army. The counter-offensive also changed the Russian perception of the war, which was no longer a distant ‘special military operation’ but a development with direct consequences. But Ukraine is now faced with a dilemma: is it worth committing more troops and military equipment to expand the war effort? The hardest part of the Ukrainian cross-border attack may begin now, with the entry of Russian reserves into the war. If the Ukrainians are to push further from where they are now, it will be an uphill battle, not unlike the beginning of this offensive.

The Ukrainians are still outgunned and outnumbered by the Russians in most areas. The main problem with this counterattack is that it does not change the fundamentals of the front line in eastern Ukraine – the Kursk operation will require significant resources, especially infantry personnel, which may be needed more urgently elsewhere. The next stage of this counter-attack will depend on what reserves the two sides have and how they are deployed. On a 1,100-kilometre front, Ukraine lags far behind Russia in terms of troops and firepower, but it has decided to risk creating a hotspot a few hundred kilometres away, to distract its opponents and shift some of the pressure away from the Ukrainian east and towards Russia’s Kursk region. The future for Ukraine may be a risky one, a risky victory.

What is the way forward?
Until now, Ukraine has had a positive impact from the raid. At least Putin’s claim that he would ‘use nuclear weapons if the Russian mainland is attacked’ has not come true. Russia’s response will become clear in the next week or two, and the West is waiting to see what happens.

Earlier on, many European countries have increased their military aid to Ukraine, and provided more offensive military equipment, whether it will be used more widely in the future is not yet known. In fact, Russia does not have a lot of military facilities and equipment in the Kursk region, and there is not a fierce dispute between Ukraine and Russia in this region. The situation would be complicated if Russia used gravity to drive out Ukrainian troops and Ukraine was unwilling to leave.

There is also the question of how much support the Russian people still have for continuing the Russian-Ukrainian war, and how they feel about the fact that Russia has not been invaded by a foreign country since 1941. It will be important to know how much support and confidence the Russians will give to President Putin if Russia is occupied, or if there are more losses, in what is supposed to be a ‘revival of Russia’.

Furthermore, whether China, which has been providing Russia with civilian and military resources, will continue to do so under the threat of U.S. sanctions is also a variable to be considered. If Russia is unable to continue its supply during this period, it is believed that Russia’s instability will increase and the international situation will change.

The US presidential election will be held in November. After the replacement of Emily Hogan by the Democrats, the electoral situation will immediately change, and the chance of the Democrats to continue to lead the White House will increase, while the situation of Trump’s original stability will change again, which is believed to be an important point of consideration for Russia and Vladimir Putin. Therefore, in the coming month, I believe there will be a breakthrough in the further development of the Russian-Ukrainian war.