One Year Countdown: Support for Both Major Parties Declines – Where Is the 2026 Victorian Election Heading?

Victoria will hold its state election on 28 November 2026. Although the election is still about a year away, political dynamics are already shifting, and public discussion has heated up following the appointment of Jess Wilson as the new leader of the Victorian Liberal Party, adding new variables to what had been a relatively stable political landscape.

Meanwhile, the Labor Party still holds a majority of seats, but polls indicate that its support is not unshakable. Recent surveys show that Labor’s primary vote has declined slightly, currently hovering around 28% to 30%. By comparison, the Coalition’s primary support is about 36%, showing some catching-up momentum. More notably, support for independent candidates and minor parties is rising, with roughly 22% of voters indicating a willingness to cast their vote outside the two major parties. This reflects a declining trust in the major parties and a growing voter preference for new faces or non-traditional options.

However, the shifts in major party support are not without reason. For Victorians—especially within the rapidly growing multicultural communities—it may be time to reassess whether the two major parties have responded adequately to social change and the needs of new migrants over the past decade, in order to judge which political force best represents their interests and future.

Labor Party: In the Shadow of Andrews — Both an Asset and a Burden

In the past 35 years, the Victorian premiership has been held by Labor for 25 years, solidifying its dominant position in state politics. Former Premier Daniel Andrews served for 8 years and 9 months, and his achievements and controversies continue to strongly influence subsequent Labor governments.

During Andrews’ tenure, Victoria’s economy grew impressively, Melbourne expanded rapidly, and infrastructure projects were undertaken across the state. The most notable include the Suburban Rail Loop, West Gate Tunnel, Metro Tunnel, and large-scale level crossing removal projects. Most of these projects relied heavily on debt financing, increasing the fiscal burden, but also created tens of thousands of jobs and reinforced Victoria’s position as Australia’s most dynamic economy. Observers generally agree that Andrews’ period saw Victoria’s economy, infrastructure, and education sectors ranking among the nation’s best.

However, these “ambitious projects” have faced numerous problems during implementation. Construction proceeded recklessly despite insufficient funds and unconfirmed costs. Among them, the Suburban Rail Loop has been criticized as a massive waste of taxpayers’ money: from an initially estimated total cost of around AUD 50 billion, the construction costs for the first two stages have already soared to over AUD 216 billion, with the final expense still unknown.

At the same time, post-pandemic economic pressures, rising interest rates, rapidly expanding debt, budget deficits, along with multiple project delays and cost overruns, have carried over into the tenure of current Premier Jacinta Allan. Victoria’s economic growth has slowed in recent years, and housing prices have stagnated, lagging behind stronger recoveries in other states. This has left many citizens frustrated, and Labor’s polling has weakened as a result.

The recently opened Metro Tunnel has become the most symbolic achievement of the Victorian Labor government in recent years and could help refocus voters’ attention on Labor’s governance. Yet, facing the upcoming re-election challenge, Allan still faces significant hurdles: a severe fiscal situation, persistently high cost of living, rising crime rates, deep social and economic impacts post-pandemic, and general dissatisfaction from the business community.

With the state’s debt projected to climb to AUD 194 billion by 2029, Allan has indicated that infrastructure and housing policy will remain the core of her campaign strategy, meaning debt is likely to continue increasing.

On law-and-order issues, in response to rising youth crime rates, the Allan government recently introduced a new bill allowing 14-year-old violent offenders to be sentenced as adults, partially closing the Coalition’s space to attack Labor on crime policy.

Liberal Party: New Leader Needs More Prominent Policies

In recent years, the Coalition’s support among young voters and multicultural communities has steadily declined. The Liberal Party has long struggled with internal conflicts, leadership struggles, and sidelining of moderates. The appointment of a young female leader is widely seen as an attempt to revamp the party’s image and re-engage voters under 50.

Jess Wilson quickly unveiled an initial campaign blueprint after taking office, focusing on abolishing five major taxes to “ease the cost-of-living burden and restore state finances.” Her policy focus is centered on four main areas: state debt management, law-and-order, healthcare, and housing affordability. She also plans to introduce legislation to make coercive control a criminal offense under family violence law.

However, structurally, the path ahead is clearly difficult: Labor currently holds a majority in the lower house, and for the Coalition to flip the government, it would need to win at least 16 additional seats. Labor has won the past two elections by a wide margin, reinforcing the ruling party’s confidence and highlighting that for the Coalition to regain voter trust, simply criticizing Labor or claiming the Liberals can “save finances” is insufficient; they need impactful and actionable policy proposals.

The key question remains: Can Wilson, with limited political experience, deliver in the next year, and how will the public respond to her performance?

Parties’ Policies and Attitudes Toward Multicultural Communities

According to the 2021 census, 31.5% of Victoria’s population was born overseas. Many recent immigrants over the past 20–30 years do not traditionally support major parties and often lack firmly established Western-style political positions. Yet, because they now represent an increasingly crucial portion of the electorate, any party that successfully appeals to immigrant voters has a chance to secure key votes.

Immigrant concerns are often not ideological but practical: Are parties willing to listen? Are relations between Australia and their home country favorable? Does the government help immigrants integrate locally?

The Chinese community is particularly attentive to Australia–China relations. Since Andrews’ government, Labor has taken an active approach, including multiple official visits to China. The federal Albanese government’s warming of diplomatic ties, and Allan’s recent facilitation of a Chinese railway delegation exchange, continue this trajectory. For some Chinese voters, this represents stable and friendly policy direction.

Labor has also introduced a series of multicultural initiatives, such as AUD 29 million in additional funding for local news and community broadcasting to support multicultural media development, and the creation of a Multicultural and Multifaith Law Reform Consultative Committee to allow multicultural communities more direct input into Victoria’s legislative process.

Last year, the federal Labor government published the Multicultural Framework Assessment, the first attempt by an Australian government to explore the development of a multicultural society. Federal funding has been pledged to implement recommendations, further advancing the framework.

In September this year, the Victorian Labor government released the Victoria Multicultural Development Blueprint, proposing the establishment of a new statutory body, Multicultural Victoria, and funding for Chinese cultural museums and facilities to directly respond to community needs.

However, promises are easier than delivery. For example, in 2014, Andrews promised land to Chinese and Indian communities for aged care facilities, winning significant immigrant support. In 2018, he promised additional aged care homes for the Chinese community. Yet ten years later, while four parcels of land have been purchased, none have been handed over for construction. This has fueled skepticism that Labor may use immigrant communities for votes without fully delivering.

The Liberal Party historically emphasizes small government and fair systems, but its leadership has limited engagement with immigrant communities and lacks awareness of the challenges newcomers face, resulting in minimal policy investment in multicultural issues. Past leaders, such as Peter Dutton, linked economic and housing pressures to immigration, calling for large cuts, and senior senator Jane Hume publicly labeled Chinese Australians as “spies,” further weakening support.

Although the party has recently attempted to modernize its image and policy platform for youth, women, immigrants, and environmental issues, no concrete policies benefiting immigrant communities have been implemented. Wilson’s proposed policy focus remains on finance, law-and-order, housing, and healthcare, without prioritizing immigrant groups.

Public Perception of Party Handling of Immigration

Australian immigration policy has long been closely watched. Public perception often frames the Liberals as restrictive and Labor as pro-immigration, though the reality is more nuanced. During the pandemic, net overseas migration (NOM) briefly fell below zero, then rebounded rapidly. Some conservatives blamed Labor, though experts note this was largely pandemic-driven rather than policy-driven.

NOM is not directly controlled by government, being determined by natural population flows of arrivals and departures. What is controllable is the permanent and temporary visa system, including skilled migration, family reunification, international students, working holiday makers, and temporary skilled visas.

While the Liberals verbally oppose “high immigration,” over the past 25 years they promoted temporary migration through international students, 457 visas, post-study work rights, and working holiday agreements. Labor, in contrast, has tightened regulations during governance, including capping international student enrollment, increasing labor and education oversight, raising language requirements, and curbing visa abuse. This highlights the gap between rhetoric and policy: Labor speaks pro-immigration but acts cautiously, while Liberals criticize immigration but relax temporary visa rules.

Immigration policy and visa quotas are federal responsibilities; state governments mainly assist with settlement. Victoria’s new immigrant population has risen steadily, closely trailing New South Wales, showing that the state Labor government continues investing in making Victoria attractive for new arrivals.

Rise of a Third Force

With Victoria’s political landscape fragmenting, independents and minor parties are increasingly significant. In Australia, the lower house primarily proposes and passes budgets, while the upper house reviews, amends, and checks legislation. Independent candidates, especially in the upper house, play a key role in representing voter interests and monitoring major party policies to prevent excessive concentration of power.

Moreover, reforms to the upper house voting system may reshape the overall electoral map. Previously, the Group Voting Ticket (GVT) system allowed voters to select a party, with preferences distributed by the party rather than voters. This sometimes enabled low-polling candidates to win unexpectedly, reducing voter control over results.

If GVTs are abolished, voters will assign preferences directly, making vote distribution more transparent and giving independent candidates’ influence a more direct reflection of voter intent, changing strategies and impact in the upper house.