On March 21, Trump warned Iran via social media that it must reopen the Strait of Hormuz within 48 hours without any threats; otherwise, the United States would use force to destroy several Iranian power plants. However, on March 23, as the deadline was about to expire, Trump suddenly backtracked, stating that the situation had taken a turn for the better. He claimed that the U.S. had engaged in “very good” and substantive talks with Iran, and therefore decided to temporarily postpone the airstrikes for five days.
Although Trump claimed the negotiations were progressing smoothly, the Iranian Foreign Ministry immediately denied having engaged in any direct dialogue with Washington, countering that Trump was spreading “fake news” to quell the surge in international oil prices caused by the threat of war. Iranian Parliament Speaker Mohammad Bagher Ghalibaf bluntly stated that the U.S. was merely waging psychological warfare to extricate itself and Israel from the quagmire of war. The Iranian military further warned that if energy facilities within its borders were attacked, it would retaliate by destroying all critical infrastructure surrounding U.S. military bases in the Middle East, including desalination plants that support the lifeline of Gulf nations. Since Gulf nations rely on these facilities for up to 80% of their drinking water, this threat has sparked international humanitarian concerns.
The International Energy Agency (IEA) noted that the scale of this supply disruption has surpassed that of the 1970s oil crisis. Australian Energy Minister Chris Bowen confirmed that domestic gasoline prices have surged to over 2.50 Australian dollars per liter due to the cancellation of crude oil shipments caused by the conflict. In parts of Western Australia, gasoline prices have risen by more than 40% in a single month, triggering panic buying among the public. Experts warn that if the situation does not de-escalate in the short term, the ripple effects on energy costs will drive up transportation and food prices, dealing a blow to both the Australian and global economies.
Commentary:
This ultimatum perfectly embodies his signature “deal-making diplomacy” and “maximum pressure” strategy. By threatening to destroy key power plants in Iran, Trump is not attempting to launch a protracted full-scale war, but rather using America’s overwhelming air superiority as leverage to force Iran into full concessions without deploying ground troops. This tactic of rapidly shifting between tough military threats and conciliatory diplomatic rhetoric creates strategic “unpredictability,” making it difficult for Iran’s leadership to accurately gauge the U.S.’s true bottom line, thereby forcing them to exercise greater caution before taking further provocative actions.
Given the surge in oil prices in Australia and globally, Trump is well aware that high energy costs will severely damage his domestic popularity. Therefore, the so-called “five-day grace period” appears more like a political maneuver to counter market panic, aimed at temporarily calming oil prices and stabilizing global financial markets. Even if this strategic maneuver continues to cast uncertainty over global supply chains, Trump still intends to redefine the power dynamics in the Middle East by striking at the foundations of Iran’s state apparatus.