The federal government will on Wednesday unveil major reforms to the National Disability Insurance Scheme (NDIS), which are expected to become the largest savings measure in the upcoming federal budget. The government aims to reduce annual growth in the scheme from around 10%—on current spending of about AUD 49 billion—to a more sustainable level of around 5%.
Treasurer Jim Chalmers said that without intervention, NDIS expenditure could rise to AUD 62 billion by 2028–29, placing significant pressure on public finances. The government has made the reforms a central part of budget planning and brought forward the announcement to allow consultation with state governments and stakeholders.
The proposed changes reportedly include tightening eligibility for children entering the scheme due to developmental delays, strengthening measures to combat fraud and excessive charging, and improving regulation and registration of service providers. Similar reforms in the past have faced opposition from state governments, as federal cost-cutting often shifts greater responsibility for disability services onto the states.
The upcoming budget is also expected to include tax reforms and productivity measures, with potential adjustments to property-related taxes such as capital gains tax concessions and negative gearing arrangements. The government also anticipates slower economic growth and rising unemployment due to ongoing tensions in the Middle East.
The Treasurer said that although the overall size of savings may be lower than previously expected, it remains “significant.” At the same time, earlier fuel excise relief measures introduced in response to rising fuel prices will continue and form a major new spending item in the budget.
Analysts say the NDIS overhaul reflects the government’s attempt to balance fiscal pressure with social welfare commitments, though how the reforms will be implemented—and their impact on vulnerable groups—remains to be seen.