The United Arab Emirates has announced it will withdraw from OPEC and the OPEC+ framework starting May 1, saying the move is aimed at focusing on its long-term national strategy and economic interests, while increasing oil production capacity and market flexibility.
The UAE said it had conducted a comprehensive review of its oil policy and future production capacity, and decided to direct resources more directly into domestic energy development in order to respond more effectively to global market demand, while maintaining its responsibility for market stability.
The UAE has long expressed dissatisfaction with OPEC’s production quota system, arguing that it restricts its expansion plans. Tensions have intensified as the country seeks to raise output from around 3.4 million barrels per day to 5 million barrels per day by 2027. It currently produces about 2.9 million barrels per day, accounting for roughly 15% of OPEC’s total capacity. After its exit, the organisation will be reduced to 11 member states.
Analysts note that the UAE and Saudi Arabia, both core oil producers within the group, have increasingly diverged in recent years over production policy and geopolitical positioning, particularly following the Iran conflict. The UAE has also criticised Gulf states’ approach to Iran and regional mediation efforts, and did not consult partner countries prior to its decision to withdraw.
The Iran conflict has further intensified volatility in global energy markets, with disruptions in the Strait of Hormuz tightening supply and keeping international oil prices elevated. Market analysts say the UAE’s exit will weaken OPEC’s ability to regulate oil markets, increase supply uncertainty, and potentially lead to greater long-term price volatility.