The result of the by-election in Nepean, Victoria, is in, with the Liberal Party successfully retaining its traditional stronghold, won by former local mayor Anthony Marsh. A result was projected in under three hours of counting, indicating the party still holds a solid base in the electorate. However, the final outcome is still pending completion of full vote counting and preference distribution by the electoral commission.
The by-election was triggered in a contest where the Labor Party did not field a candidate, leaving competition primarily between the One Nation party and independent candidates. Early figures show the Liberals leading with around 63.5% of the two-party-preferred vote. However, their primary vote fell by approximately 9.6%, while One Nation secured close to a quarter of the vote, suggesting a more fragmented voter base.
Victorian Opposition Leader Jess Wilson said that while the seat has been retained, the party faces a significant challenge ahead of the November state election, in which the Liberals need to gain an additional 16 seats to form government. She said the party would take lessons from the result and focus on local concerns, including infrastructure, law and order, and healthcare services.
The Victorian Premier said the result suggests the Liberals may increasingly rely on One Nation preference flows in the future, questioning the stability of their electoral base. Political analysts described the outcome as “mixed,” noting that while the Liberals held the seat, the decline in vote share reflects growing caution among voters toward major parties.