Documents reveal almost 145,000 Australians will lose support for autism under NDIS reforms

Almost 145,000 Australians receiving support for autism on the national disability insurance scheme (NDIS) are expected to be removed by the end of the decade, internal estimates show, as the federal government moves ahead with plans to narrow the focus of the “diluted” $52bn scheme toward those with significant and complex needs.

From 2028, almost two-thirds of the 241,000 participants set to lose access to the NDIS will be aged 18 or under, health department documents released to Guardian Australia under freedom of information laws show.

The changes are part of the Albanese government’s endeavour to get the NDIS “back on track” financially and are expected to pass when parliament returns next month despite fierce criticism from advocates and politicians. The government estimates the $52bn-a-year scheme will more than double in cost to $117bn a year in a decade’s time without intervention.

People with autism are the fastest-growing cohort of the NDIS, making up 42% of the entire scheme. The majority (68%) of autistic participants who were given access to the scheme in the quarter ending in December 2025 were under 14. The health department expects 241,000 NDIS participants will eventually be shifted off the scheme by June 2031 following the introduction of the functional capacity test, to keep the number of participants at about 600,000. During that period, an additional 105,000 will be stopped from entering the scheme.

When asked by Guardian Australia if there were any planned programs for teenage Australians with autism, a government spokesperson did not address the question directly. The NDIS minister, Mark Butler, has repeatedly said the scheme is only intended for people with “significant and permanent disability”.

The Thriving Kids program, jointly funded by federal and state governments, will begin offering support in October to children under nine with mild developmental delays and autism who are shifted off the NDIS.

A parliamentary human rights committee’s report in June looked at the government’s proposed changes to wind back the size of the disability funding lifeline for many Australians, warning they could be retrogressive and limit human rights for some. In a submission to a parliamentary inquiry into the bill, the grassroots autism advocacy group Autism Aspergers Advocacy Australia warned a functional capacity test for autistic people would be “especially problematic”, as no one has created a tool for functional assessment of autistic subjects though many have tried, and so there is no reason at all to expect that the NDIS will succeed.