The United States announced on 7 July that it would reinstate economic sanctions on Iran’s oil industry and end ahead of schedule a temporary oil export waiver that was originally set to expire in August. The move was made in response to Iran’s alleged attacks on commercial vessels in the Strait of Hormuz. Following the announcement, international oil prices briefly rose by more than 5%, with tensions in the Middle East escalating once again.
The US Central Command said Iran had recently attacked three commercial vessels in the Strait of Hormuz, describing the actions as “unjustified, dangerous, and a clear violation of the ceasefire agreement”. The US military has launched a new round of airstrikes against Iran. On the same day, the US Treasury Department announced that new Iranian oil and natural gas transactions would be prohibited, restoring sanctions on Iran’s energy sector.
The United Kingdom Maritime Trade Operations (UKMTO) reported that three vessels were attacked near the Strait of Hormuz within 24 hours. The incidents included two oil tankers being hit by unidentified projectiles and drones, while another commercial vessel was also attacked. No casualties or significant environmental damage were reported.
Saudi Arabia and Qatar both accused Iran of attacking energy transport vessels in the region. Qatar summoned Iran’s acting chargé d’affaires in Doha to lodge a protest, demanding that Tehran immediately stop actions that threaten international shipping and global energy security, and provide an explanation for the incident. Iran denied the allegations, calling the claims “unacceptable”.
On the same day, Iran’s Foreign Ministry accused the United States of once again violating the ceasefire memorandum previously signed between the two sides, warning that it would take “decisive measures” to protect its national interests and security. According to Iranian state media, explosions were reported on Qeshm Island, Sirik, and the major port city of Bandar Abbas in southern Iran.
Commentary:
Although the US and Iran previously reached a ceasefire arrangement, their long-standing hostility and lack of mutual trust mean that any military action or economic sanctions could quickly trigger a new round of retaliation, making the ceasefire more like a temporary de-escalation rather than a genuine solution to the root causes of the conflict. Iran’s actions may also be an attempt to express dissatisfaction towards the US and regional countries through limited-scale pressure, while testing their responses and assessing its own influence in the region.
Previous crises have shown that without effective diplomatic mechanisms to support a ceasefire, such agreements often become only a brief pause before the next conflict. If the US and Iran want to prevent the situation from spiralling out of control again, the key is not who gains the upper hand in the short term, but whether both sides can rebuild a minimum level of communication and trust. Otherwise, even if the Strait of Hormuz temporarily returns to stability, another crisis could emerge at any time.