Seeing How Australia Has Changed Through Forty Years of Population Change

On 11 August 2026, Australia once again conducted its national Census. Millions of households across the country were required to complete the questionnaire, answering questions about their age, employment, language, religion, education level, family composition, housing situation and other matters.

It is not only Australia’s largest official data collection exercise, but also an important basis for the government’s planning for the future. So, it is answering a bigger question: what kind of country is Australia, and what kind of country is it becoming?

Who Belongs to Australia?

Today, the Australian Bureau of Statistics (ABS) conducts a Census every five years, and it has become a routine exercise. But in fact, Australia’s history of population statistics is older than the Australian Federation itself.

Not long after British colonists arrived in Sydney Cove in 1788, the colonial government began recording population numbers. During the nineteenth century, individual colonies conducted their own population counts; in 1881, the Australian colonies conducted a census simultaneously for the first time. After the Australian Federation was established in 1901, the first national Census was held in 1911, conducted by the newly established federal statistical agency. At the time, census officers travelled through remote areas on horseback, by horse-drawn carriage and even on foot to collect data, with all the information processed by hand.

However, early censuses were not simply statistical exercises, but also part of the colonial government’s tools of governance. Who was included in the statistics and who was excluded was itself a political choice. The most obvious example was Indigenous Australians.

When the Federation was established, Section 127 of the Australian Constitution stipulated that, when calculating Australia’s population, “aboriginal natives shall not be counted” in the total population. Although some Indigenous Australians were recorded in various censuses, they were not officially included in federal population statistics, while the Indigenous populations of many remote areas were simply estimated by state government departments. In other words, for more than half a century after Federation, the official population figures of Australia did not actually portray the full Australian society.

The 1967 referendum became an important turning point. More than 90 per cent of voters supported amending the Constitution and removing the relevant provision. The 1971 Census then became the first Census to fully include Aboriginal and Torres Strait Islander peoples in the official population statistics. This was not merely a symbolic change. It also enabled the federal government, for the first time, to gain a more systematic understanding of the size of the Indigenous population, their residential distribution, education and health conditions, providing a foundation for later Indigenous policies, healthcare resources and financial allocation.

This shows that the Census does not merely reflect changes in national identity; it also reflects how the government understands “who belongs to Australia.”

Immigration in the History of the Census

If we compare the results of the 1986 Census with those of the 2021 Census, Australia’s population was around 16 million in 1986; by the 2021 Census, it had exceeded 25 million. The change was not simply an increase in population numbers, but that the sources behind population growth had become completely different.

Data on Australia’s population in the nineteenth century shows that growth came largely from immigration. Whether settlers from Britain and Ireland, or immigrants from China, Germany and other parts of Europe during the gold rush, most residents had originally been born overseas. This shows that Australian society was itself a migrant society in its early days. But as immigrants gradually settled, had children and raised families, the proportion of Australian-born people began to increase. After the White Australia policy was established in the early twentieth century, immigration sources remained predominantly British and European for a long period. After the war, Australia faced another problem: insufficient population.

At the end of the Second World War, Australia’s population was less than eight million. The government was concerned about labour shortages and inadequate defence capabilities, and therefore introduced the famous “Populate or Perish” policy, bringing in large numbers of new immigrants from across Europe. These immigrants and their descendants became an important force behind Australia’s post-war economic development.

After the 1970s, as the White Australia policy was gradually dismantled, Australia’s immigration policy changed again. Refugee resettlement programs following the Vietnam War, the establishment of the skilled migration system, and the movement of international students and skilled workers during the era of globalisation led to an increase in Asian immigration, gradually changing Australia’s population profile.

For much of the twentieth century, Australia’s population growth was driven mainly by European immigrants and their descendants, with the United Kingdom consistently being the largest source of overseas-born residents. However, by 2021, India had become one of Australia’s largest overseas-born groups, with a population of more than 910,000; the China-born population was close to 790,000; and communities from Asian countries such as the Philippines, Nepal and Vietnam also continued to grow rapidly. This means that Australia’s multiculturalism is no longer simply diversity among European cultures, but is gradually becoming a truly global cultural composition.

The 2021 Census showed that 27.6 per cent of residents were born overseas, close to three in ten people; if the country of birth of parents is taken into account, more than half of Australians have at least one parent born overseas.

From this perspective, every Census does more than record population change. It records how Australia has gradually transformed from a migrant country dominated by British culture into one of the most multicultural countries in the world today.

What Kind of Country Has Australia Become Over Forty Years?

According to the 2021 Census results, besides English, the most commonly spoken languages at home in Australia include Mandarin, Arabic, Vietnamese, Cantonese and Punjabi. These figures help explain why Australian hospitals, government departments and community service organisations today commonly provide multilingual translation services.

Another major change has come from religion. In 1986, Australia was still clearly a predominantly Christian society. By 2021, however, “no religion” became the largest single response in the Census for the first time, at 38.9 per cent. At the same time, the overall proportion of Christians continued to decline. This does not mean that religion has disappeared, but reflects that Australian society is becoming more secular, while increasing immigration has also brought more people from different religious backgrounds, including Muslim, Hindu and Sikh communities.

Family structures have also undergone significant changes. Australians are marrying later, fertility rates have continued to decline, single-person households have increased, and average household sizes have become smaller. These changes may appear to be private choices, but in reality they have a major impact on housing demand. As more people choose to live alone, even if the population grows at the same rate, more housing units are needed. At the same time, the population is becoming increasingly concentrated in a small number of major cities. Melbourne, Sydney and southeast Queensland continue to attract large numbers of people, driving employment and economic development while also increasing pressure on housing, transport and public services. The infrastructure challenges Australia faces today are, to some extent, the result of population concentration over the past several decades.

If Australia in 1986 was a relatively young country, predominantly made up of people of European migrant descent and with a stronger religious character, then Australia in 2021 was a society with a higher degree of ageing, greater cultural diversity, more diverse religious identities and more varied family structures.

Population Changes, Parliamentary Seats Change

The most direct political impact of the Census is democratic representation. Each electorate in Australia’s federal House of Representatives must maintain a relatively similar population size to ensure that every voter has broadly equal representation. As populations move between different states and cities, the Australian Electoral Commission (AEC) needs to regularly redraw electoral boundaries and even adjust the number of House of Representatives seats allocated to each state.

For example, over the past several decades, population growth has continued towards Queensland, Western Australia and the outer suburbs of Melbourne, while population growth in some remote areas and South Australia has been relatively slow. As a result, some states have gained seats while others have lost seats. Every redistribution of electoral boundaries can change the composition of voters, which in turn can affect election strategies, competition between political parties and even the formation of government.

In other words, a Census can ultimately influence who has the opportunity to govern.

Multicultural Policies Are Also Built on the Census

For Australia’s Chinese community, the most direct impact of the Census may come from multicultural policies.

Every Census collects data on country of birth, ancestry, languages spoken at home, English proficiency and religion. These figures allow the government to understand which areas need more translation and interpreting services (TIS National), which communities need Adult Migrant English Program (AMEP) courses, and which areas are suitable for increased community language education and multicultural funding. The ABS also states that the Census helps governments and community organisations plan local services and support different population groups.

For rapidly growing communities such as Chinese, Indian and Vietnamese communities, the Census does more than reflect population growth; it also means whether the government has sufficient evidence to allocate the corresponding resources. However, the Census itself does not make policy recommendations. It simply records what is happening in Australia.

Yet when we look back at data from the past forty years, we can see that many of the issues considered crises today had already left clear signs in the Census.

First Warning Sign: Housing Needs Have Already Changed

When discussing the housing crisis today, people often focus on increasing immigration, insufficient construction or changes in interest rates. But the Census reveals a deeper structural factor: household sizes have continued to shrink. In 1986, an average household had around three people; by 2021, that figure had fallen to around 2.5. The increase in single people, later marriage, non-marriage and population ageing have all meant that more people need to live independently. This means that even if population growth does not change, Australia still needs more housing to accommodate the same number of people.

In other words, increasing housing demand is not only due to population growth, but also changes in lifestyles. The Census had already revealed this trend, but housing supply, planning systems and infrastructure development failed to adjust in tandem over the long term, eventually allowing housing problems to accumulate.

After the pandemic, Australia experienced its fastest population growth in recent years while also facing a nationwide shortage of housing supply. The government introduced policies such as the National Housing Accord and the Housing Australia Future Fund in an attempt to increase housing supply, but their effectiveness remains to be seen. The 2026 Census will provide the first comprehensive picture of the changes after the pandemic, allowing the government to reassess whether housing demand has undergone new changes.

Second Warning Sign: Population Ageing Did Not Appear Suddenly

Australia’s ageing population is often described as a challenge that is “about to arrive”, but Census results show that it has been continuing for decades.

Since the 1980s, the Census has consistently shown a steady increase in the proportion of older people, while the median age has continued to rise. The government therefore established My Aged Care, expanded home care and reformed the retirement system, with the overall direction broadly correct. However, the 2021 Royal Commission into Aged Care Quality and Safety found that the system had long suffered from staff shortages, inadequate services and inconsistent quality.

At the same time, Australia is ageing rapidly. In 1986, Australia was still a relatively young country, with most of the post-war baby boom generation still of working age. Forty years later, this generation has gradually entered retirement. The 2021 Census showed that people aged 65 and over accounted for nearly one-sixth of the total population, while the average age has continued to rise. Population ageing is no longer simply a future challenge, but a reality that is already happening.

According to the Australian Government’s Intergenerational Report, over the next forty years, the proportion of people aged 65 and over will continue to increase, while those aged 85 and over will become one of the fastest-growing age groups. The 2026 Census will provide the latest post-pandemic picture of Australia’s age structure and will also help the government assess whether further adjustments are needed to aged care, healthcare and retirement systems.

Third Warning Sign: Multicultural Policies Are Still Catching Up with Population Changes

Forty years ago, Australia was still largely made up of immigrants of European backgrounds; today, Asia has become an important source of new immigrants. The government has indeed gradually expanded translation services, multicultural broadcasting and settlement policies for new migrants based on Census results. At the same time, however, the structure of new immigration has also changed.

Over the past two decades, Australia has seen a large increase in international students, skilled migrants and temporary visa holders. They tend to be younger, more concentrated in major cities, more likely to rent, and more dependent on public transport and the employment market.

These populations differ from the post-war model, which was mainly based on family migration, and their needs in housing, mental health, employment support and community integration have also changed. The Census can show these changes, but whether public policy can adjust in time remains an issue worth continuing to observe.

After the pandemic, Australia once again significantly increased permanent and temporary migration, while international students also returned rapidly. The 2026 Census will show which cities and communities this round of population growth is concentrated in, and whether there have been new changes among people from different linguistic, religious and cultural backgrounds.

The People and Things the Data Cannot See

The Census itself will not directly build hospitals, increase schools or determine migration quotas. However, it provides the government with the most comprehensive foundational data for understanding Australian society. After the Census is completed, the ABS combines it with administrative data such as births, deaths and migration to update Australia’s official Estimated Resident Population (ERP). This population estimate subsequently becomes an important basis for policy-making by federal, state and local governments.

However, even the most comprehensive statistical system cannot fully present the whole picture of a society.

The greatest strength of the Census is that it can answer “how many people there are”, “where they live” and “who they are”; but it cannot answer another more important question — why.

For example, the Census can tell us that Australia’s birth rate continues to decline, but it cannot explain why young people choose to delay marriage or having children; it can show that more people are renting, but it cannot reflect whether they are being forced to move because rents are too high; it can record whether a person is unemployed, but it cannot show the impact of unemployment on their family, mental health or quality of life.

Therefore, the Census is an extremely detailed map, but it is not an instruction manual.

At the same time, the Census remains a “self-reported” statistical exercise. Although the Australian Bureau of Statistics improves response rates through extensive publicity, community partnerships and follow-up efforts, some populations remain more difficult to record completely. For example, people experiencing homelessness, people living in remote areas, some highly mobile residents, and people with limited language skills or a lack of trust in government may find it more difficult to fully participate in the Census.

In recent years, Australia has also seen an increasing number of short-term residents, including international students, working holiday makers and temporary skilled visa holders. Although they live in Australia and create actual demand for housing, employment markets, transport and public services, the Census has specific statistical definitions and the concept of a “usual resident”. Different population groups may therefore be treated differently across different statistics. When reading Census data, it is therefore necessary to understand its statistical scope rather than simply treating everyone in Australia as the same population group.

More importantly, the Census can only provide “evidence”; it cannot replace “value judgements”. Therefore, the Census is not a policy manual telling the government “what it should do”, but a mirror. Its role is to reflect reality; how to respond to that reality remains part of democratic political debate.

New Questions, a New Australia, New Challenges

In August 2026, Australia will once again conduct its national Census. In addition to core questions on age, education, employment, family, housing, language and religion, one of the biggest changes in this Census is that, after years of social discussion, statistical questions on sexual orientation and gender will formally be included for the first time, including sexual orientation, gender identity and sex recorded at birth, in order to more comprehensively reflect the diversity of Australia’s population. The Australian Bureau of Statistics stated that these new questions will help governments and communities better understand the size and service needs of different groups.

At the same time, the 2026 Census has also expanded the collection of ancestry data, allowing respondents to report up to four ancestries instead of two as in the past. This change may appear minor, but it reflects the increasingly diverse backgrounds of Australian families. With the increase in intercultural marriages, many Australians now have multiple cultural backgrounds, and traditional single-ethnicity classifications are no longer sufficient to reflect reality.

These changes are not simply about adding more statistical questions, but reflect the Australian government’s desire to use Census results to more accurately understand an increasingly complex society.

What Really Matters Is Not Just Population, But the Future

A Census held once every five years may appear to be nothing more than a routine exercise. One questionnaire, dozens of questions, completed in one evening, followed by waiting for the next Census to arrive.

But when we look back at more than a century of Australian history, we find that every Census has recorded how this country has gradually changed itself. It recorded the population structure during the era of the White Australia policy, witnessed how large-scale post-war immigration reshaped Australia, and reflected how Australia gradually became one of the most multicultural countries in the world. But the true importance of the Census is not only that it tells us what Australia looks like today, but that it reminds us what kind of country Australia is becoming.

Therefore, the question that truly deserves to be asked is whether the government is genuinely willing to make changes based on the reality reflected by the Census. A good Census can help the government better understand its people, but more importantly, a good government should know how to respond to its people.

The 2026 Census will soon be completed. The real test will not end on the day the questionnaire is filled out. It will come over the next few years, as the data is gradually released, when Australia must decide how to face a society that is becoming older, more diverse, more urbanised, and also increasingly challenging.