Could Coronavirus be eliminated in Australia？

Coronavirus could “die out” in Australia entirely if New South Wales and Victoria stay on their current trajectory of low infections, according to two leading epidemiologists.

But as new infections flatline in Victoria after a months-long lockdown, and cases dwindle in NSW amid rampant contact tracing, some experts have now admitted COVID-19 could be eliminated in Australia, despite the fact it has never been the national strategy.

Yesterday Victoria recorded its seventh straight day of no new cases and NSW has recorded nine cases since Monday.

“NSW is the model, we have a low number of cases, the public health response stamps on any clusters and you keep everything under control,” he said.

“No-one knows what will happen over the next week in Victoria, but it’s not outside the bounds of possibility that we will see zero cases for another week or so and then technically we’ve eliminated the virus.”

Suppression, rather than elimination, was the goal of Victoria’s stage-four lockdown, while NSW Premier Gladys Berejiklian has long maintained residents must learn to live with COVID-19 until a vaccine is found.

Flattening the curve, again

Australia’s two most populous states have been on very different COVID-19 trajectories throughout the pandemic.

These graphs outline how, by the third week of May, lockdowns in NSW and Victoria had successfully flattened their curves.