Once vaccines roll out, Covid case numbers will no longer a focus

Scott Morrison has ordered a review of the way Australia deals with Covid-19 outbreaks once vaccinations are under way, suggesting the jabs will change the “risk environment” and pave the way for less concern about raw case numbers.

The prime minister flagged the rethink after a meeting with state and territory leaders on Friday, while announcing that the caps on the number of people allowed to enter Australia would start to increase again next week.

Morrison hinted that Australians could expect a return to a greater level of normality in the months ahead, as vaccinations would reduce the incidence of severe disease and fatalities, while cautioning that “we’re not there yet”.

The head of Morrison’s department, Phil Gaetjens, will work with the top public servants in each state and territory to advise leaders on “how the risk environment has changed in relation to the management of the pandemic”.

That would take into account, on the negative side, the new variants of Covid-19, while on the positive side it would consider how the testing, tracing and quarantine system and the public response had improved.

Morrison said Australia had so far avoided a third wave because the systems had proven themselves over the past couple of months. The impact of the progress of vaccinations will be a key part of the risk review.

The PM did not go into specifics on what he wanted to change – such as the tendency to close state borders – but said he wanted to “understand the risk settings better so we can better manage the pandemic and ensure our economy can grow and Australians can return to as normal life as possible”.

Morrison said the situation Australia now faced was very different from March last year, when “we stared into that abyss both from a health point of view and economically [and] we were extremely concerned about tens of thousands of Australians dying”.

Morrison said some things that may have been considered too risky last year – such as allowing international arrivals to quarantine at home – may be possible this year, depending on what the review finds.

Morrison said while hotel quarantine could be improved – including issues such as greater use of CCTV and dealing with risks of airborne transmission – he emphasised that the system continued to be Australia’s primary quarantine system for the virus.

While around 40,000 Australians are still seeking to return home from abroad, there was slow progress on Friday on flight cap increases.

In mid-January, the caps on international flight arrivals were temporarily halved for New South Wales, Queensland and Western Australia amid concerns about managing the new more infectious variants.

From 15 February, NSW will reinstate the previous weekly cap of 3,010 passengers into Sydney, while Queensland will resume its previous cap of 1,000 international passengers, plus surge efforts for 300 vulnerable Australians.

Western Australia remains at its currently halved level of 512 international passenger arrivals per week, because Morrison said WA authorities were still working through issues with the latest case.

But South Australia will lift its weekly cap to 530, an increase of 40 passengers.

Victoria will increase its weekly cap by 90 passengers to 1,310, and Morrison said he would have further discussions with the premier, Daniel Andrews, “about where it goes after that.”

The tourism sector has been pushing for assistance given the international border is likely to remain closed for most of 2021.