14 or 21 days?

Singapore recently increased the time most international travellers must spend in mandatory quarantine from 14 to 21 days, over concerns people can shed the virus beyond two weeks.

The country now has one of the world’s strictest quarantine arrangements, alongside Hong Kong.

Hong Kong introduced a 21-day requirement in late 2020, although people from low-risk countries (including Australia) only need to do two weeks’ quarantine in a facility followed by seven days of monitoring.

In Vietnam, the government extends the mandatory quarantine period for arrivals from abroad to 21 days from 5 May.

The mandatory quarantine period for travellers arriving in Malaysia has been extended to 21 days for those from the Indian subcontinent, and 14 days for others with the possibility of it being extended to 21 days.

The new quarantine periods come into effect from end of May. They were extended after concerns about the spread of three Covid-19 variants.

As Australia continues to look at ways to minimise spread of SARS-CoV-2 into the future, Murdoch University professor of immunology Cassandra Berry says it needs to “revisit” national quarantine arrangements.

“If we made it 21 or 20 days, that may actually help reduce the virus spread even etter,” she said.

“We’d likely see less outbreaks.”

Professor Berry acknowledged 21 days was a long time but said it could help protect the community from new overseas strains such as the Delta variant.

“We’re going to see new variants pop up all over the world along with the increased chance of importing them into our country with new arrivals,” she said.

Peter Collignon, professor of infectious diseases at the Australian National University, was strongly against lengthening the time people had to quarantine in Australia.

Professor Collignon said the proposal would also limit the number of people who could re-enter Australia.

“It will decrease our capacity markedly for the number of people to return to Australia, because we only have a limited number of quarantine facilities and rooms,” he said.

On a practical level, Professor Collignon said very few people developed an infection more than two weeks after exposure to the virus.

“The reality is it’s very, very rare to have someone develop COVID more than 12 days after exposure to the virus,” he said.

“The average incubation period is about five days.

“Anywhere from one day [after exposure] out to 12 days is where 99.9 per cent [of infections] happen.”

Professor Collignon said the key problem in Australia’s quarantine system was infection control breaches.

Experts believe that vaccinating as many people in Australia as soon as possible was also a priority. The focus is seen to be getting as many people vaccinated as quick as possible.