NSW Covid outbreak doesn’t look good

Amid the politicking, blaming and panicked rhetoric of NSW’s daily Covid update, there was a surprising number of insights into why the state is struggling to bring this outbreak under control, and what’s coming.

1.  Despite tighter restrictions to limit movement to only those in essential work, the highly contagious Delta virus is still spreading through supermarkets and essential workers. Many live in the hotspots. The chief health officer, Dr Kerry Chant, said she’s “very concerned” that despite the “intensive lockdown” over six days, there’s not been a decline in case numbers.

This is borne out by the type of exposure sites now being listed. The implications of this are profound. Locking down harder will be difficult and demands new strategies. It would mean moving to deliveries or click and collect for food, introducing strict protocols in warehouses and restricting truck movements. It means working with employers of essential workers to vaccinate key workers.

2.  Many essential workers are young and unvaccinated

“The group of workers that keep the society going is this group of workers in the 20 to 49-year-old age group in south-western Sydney,” Chant said. As Chant pointed out, under-40s are not routinely eligible for Pfizer. The advice on AstraZeneca was that they can have it after a discussion with their GP on the risk. 

However, the advice on AstraZeneca has changed on Saturday. All adults in Greater Sydney should “strongly consider” getting vaccinated with any available vaccine, including AstraZeneca, Australia’s expert vaccines body says because of the increasing risk of COVID-19 in the city, and emerging data on the severity of the Delta strain. 

In multicultural south-west Sydney, the government is struggling against some age-old problems: multiple languages and a distrust of government among some migrants.

3.  There is a huge shorta ge of Pfizer and confusion about AstraZeneca.

There is clearly not enough Pfizer to vaccinate younger essential workers, should that step be endorsed. Yet the state is “awash in AstraZeneca” according to the health minister, Brad Hazzard. The problem is the messaging around the use of that vaccine, and appointments are not being filled. 

Berejiklian lamented the lack of clear message from our nation’s leaders. She urged everyone to take AstraZeneca, as she and her family has done. But there is confusion emanating from NSW as well. Its hubs cannot administer AstraZeneca to under-40s. Younger people need to have a conversation with their GPs to get it, though pharmacies will soon be able to give AstraZeneca on the same basis.

4.  ‘Surveillance testing’ – requiring essential workers who are leaving hotspot LGAs for work to have a test every three days – is at its limit.

Health and aged care workers and other essential workers from Fairfield local government area have to get tested every three days to go to work. This has been extended to health and aged care workers in the Canterbury-Bankstown LGA.

Others in western and south-west Sydney – over a million people – can’t leave without a test once a week. The list was expanded on Friday. But that means people getting tested because they might have Covid-19 are now waiting up to 72 hours for test results.

5.  If the virus takes hold in Sydney and NSW, it will seep into other states

The Victorian premier, Daniel Andrews, might want a ring of steel around Sydney, yet NSW is a different situation.

/ The Victorian Premier, Daniel Andrews

While Sydney residents were directed not to leave the metropolitan area early in the outbreak the strategy relied mostly on trust: police cars patrolled the routes out of Sydney and fines were issued. Yet anyone determined enough could still just take their chances. Victorian Premier Daniel Andrews pointed out this difference and called for NSW to adopt his state’s “ring of steel” strategy to prevent further cases of Delta spreading from Sydney.

6.  Despite the premier’s spin about ‘living as freely possible during July, August, September and October’, Sydney is heading into a prolonged lockdown.

Berejiklian conceded the lockdown won’t end on 30 July. She refused to answer questions about whether she still intended to open up construction in a week. A huge number of tradespeople live in south-west Sydney, so this would increase movement, exactly what the authorities don’t want. No matter how safe worksites are, those workers will stop for coffee, shopping and petrol in other areas. Berejiklian seemed to indicate that the end of lockdown could be contingent on much higher rates of vaccination.

/ NSW Premier Gladys Berejiklian