Have we reached the peak yet?

Almost two months into a confusing series of local lockdowns across Sydney, with NSW cases soaring and the infections, having already invaded Victoria, rapidly spreading across the state and the national capital, the state government was finally forced to implement a total lockdown on the weekend.

As a health strategy, the soft lockdown approach has been an abject failure. From a national economic viewpoint, the ongoing apprehension about total lockdown has come at enormous cost.

Had NSW Premier Gladys Berejiklian called a two-week lockdown when the Delta variant first appeared in beachside Bondi — and it worked — the total cost would have been less than $3 billion.

AMP Capital’s Shane Oliver last week put the total bill so far at $17 billion. And counting. With the variant now running rampant, the total could end up several times more, if it can be contained at all.

/  Premier of NSW Gladys Berejiklian

How has it come to this?

Since late last year, Victoria, Queensland and Western Australia routinely have been portrayed by large sections of the media as being run by trigger-happy despots, eager to build walls around their economies, each time COVID-19 posed a threat.

The fiery editorials, however, have conveniently ignored the fact the federal government has imposed one of the world’s strictest national lockdowns, essentially cutting Australia off from the rest of the globe.

And while they have hammered home the soaring costs associated with shutting down businesses and imposing social restrictions, they’ve disregarded the obvious conclusion; that on each occasion, particularly given the absence of vaccines, the rapid response to even the smallest threat with hard lockdowns has proved effective.

What we now are about to learn is that inaction, hubris and complacency carries a far greater cost, and not just financial. Lives and livelihoods will be lost unnecessarily and NSW’s health system will be put to the test.

Youth hit by Delta blues

For months, we’ve been regaled with tales of NSW’s exceptionalism; the state’s gold-standard contact tracing and its unrivalled ability to contain outbreaks without resorting to hard lockdowns.

A large dose has, until three weeks ago at least, come from Prime Minister Scott Morrison, backed up by a significant portion of the national media.

Even as late as last Thursday, one national daily proclaimed NSW was leading the way in how best to respond to the latest wave of the pandemic.

The Delta variant was just far too virulent, it argued, and its rapid spread had a silver lining. The nation had woken up to the fact that vaccines were the answer and we had to just live with it.

That’s not a view shared by the Prime Minister. With a vaccine program running way behind schedule, he switched to championing lockdowns weeks ago and argued that even if the vaccine program had been on track, it wouldn’t have been enough to save NSW.

There is truth to that. For the Delta variant has discovered and attacked our weakest point. Where the earlier incarnations attacked the elderly, this variant is pursuing a much younger cohort, between the ages of 20 and 40.

That’s the group that has been put to the back of the queue for vaccinations. It also happens to be our key workforce demographic.

In the absence of vaccines, it pays to be decisive.