Singapore shows nothing is guaranteed to return normal

Having passed the 80 per cent double-vaccination mark last month, the example of Singapore suggests that achieving a milestone coveted by Australia is not a guarantee of returning to anything like pre-pandemic life.

The island state reluctantly delayed reopening measures and re-imposed some restrictions last week after seeing its highest daily COVID-19 infections in more than a year. Alex Cook, an infectious diseases modelling expert at the National University of Singapore, said life had not improved “by as much as we might have hoped”, despite Singapore being one of the world’s most vaccinated countries. The nation has relied mostly on the Pfizer and Moderna vaccines, with a handful of older residents opting for China’s Sinovac. Last month, it agreed to a 500,000 Pfizer dose swap deal with Australia. Mr Cook said the community cases have actually gone up since reaching 80 per cent coverage, in part because they’re allowing more social events for those who are vaccinated and, more fatigue at the control measures.

With 50 per cent of Singaporeans now allowed to return to the office and most using public transport to get there, the city last week announced that more than 300 COVID-19 cases had been linked to eight bus depots across the island.

Achieving 80 pc ‘too low for Delta’

Leong Hoe Nam, an infectious diseases expert from Singapore’s Rophi Clinic, said the Delta strain had moved the goalposts, in terms of what level of community vaccination was necessary. “They now need at least 90 per cent vaccination, which is technically not possible due to hardened anti-vaxxers or refusers.”

Dr Leong said 80 per cent was “not good enough because it can still burden the hospital system very significantly and there will be too many excess deaths”. Prime Minister Scott Morrison set a vaccination target as part of his four-step opening plan for Australia, with phase C triggered when double vaccination reached 80 per cent. However, Australia’s threshold is actually lower because it is based on the population aged over 16. Singapore’s threshold is based on the total population.

‘Bring mountain to Mohammed’

As for what Australia can learn from Singapore, in terms of ramping up vaccination rates towards 80 per cent and beyond, Dr Leong said the federal government needed to “bring the mountain to Mohammed”. “There are many people who would agree to being vaccinated but find it inconvenient to get to vaccination centres,” Dr Leong said. “But, they will take the vaccine if you go to them, which is what we did in Singapore, including individuals who are bed-bound or with other medical conditions.”

Dr Chow — who studied at Monash University and Deakin University in Victoria — warned locked-down Australians not to think of the 80 per cent vaccination mark as a cure-all panacea.“It doesn’t mean the end of the pandemic, as we’ve seen here in Singapore,” she said. “Eighty per cent is just a plaster onto the problem. We still don’t know what’s going to happen under plaster with the wound.”