Victoria’s numbers crossing over with NSW

As restrictions in Victoria begin to loosen, the state is experiencing record-high daily increases in COVID-19 cases. But why are Victoria’s numbers crossing over with New South Wales?

Why have things shifted in Victoria?

In the past few weeks, numbers have increased in Victoria largely because of household-to-household contact. Simply put, it is because people are not abiding by the rules. 

Professor Blakely said numbers could also go back down again, if the rules were more strictly followed. But there were also other factors to consider when comparing the numbers, he noted.

One is the rising vaccination rate in New South Wales, which had dampened transmission there. Across that state, 85.5 per cent of those aged over 16 years had received a first dose of COVID-19 vaccine, and 60.1 per cent were fully vaccinated.

In Victoria, only 78.7 per cent of those aged over 16 years had received their first doses and just over 48 per cent had both doses of a vaccine.

While Victoria was behind NSW in vaccine coverage, Professor Blakely said he was confident numbers in the state would go down eventually. But, he said, exactly when that could happen was harder to predict.

What could this mean for Victoria?

Professor Baxter said there were challenges with opening up before cases have come down and it was not something that was being done in other parts of the world.

“Generally, places have waited till their outbreak has subsided and the pressure on healthcare system has gotten better, and then they open up,” she said.

She said cases could start to contract in Victoria if long-term changes were implemented as well as high vaccination rates achieved, and other additional measures taken.

Some of those included making sure ventilation was well maintained, mask-wearing indoors, and making sure people were isolating when needed to and not going to work while sick. Professor Blakely agreed with the changes needed to see those results.