Are we caught in a game of snakes and ladders?

All across Asia, the emergence of the Omicron variant has put long-held plans to reopen and return to a new normal in doubt. Just as other variants disrupted carefully planned coronavirus road maps throughout the region, the uncertainty over Omicron has led to governments recalibrating their policies.

Even states that are moving to live with the virus, like Singapore, have signalled they may tighten their restrictions if necessary. Although others like Thailand remain committed to reopening plans.

The responses throughout the region are different, justified as a way of buying time until scientists know more about the new variant. The measures are also less strict than those taken in 2020.

But last week, World Health Organization (WHO) director-general Tedros Adhanom Ghebreyesus warned the lack of a consistent and coherent global approach had “resulted in a splintered and disjointed response, breeding misunderstanding, misinformation and mistrust”.

The response has also highlighted the ongoing battle to regain normalcy as new developments emerge.

A pattern of countries opening and then closing has become a familiar one over 22 months. The uncertainty has threatened economic recovery and left citizens with pandemic fatigue.

But is this a sign the end point of the pandemic is a long way off? Will restrictions and disruptions to daily life become the new normal? This is what experts had to say.

A game of snakes and ladders

Scientists have long warned we are in a race against time to get global transmission rates low enough to stop the emergence and spread of new variants.

Already we are seeing variants developing advantageous mutations, prolonging the pandemic and contributing to its severity.

Omicron may just be the latest example, its dozens of mutations prompting fears it has the potential to make existing vaccines less effective.

Reflecting on this recently, Singapore’s Health Minister, Ong Ye Kung, compared the situation to a game of snakes and ladders.

“We don’t know what is the next throw of the dice and which square we will land on,” he said.

Mr Ong used the game to explain how there were a few possibilities that lay ahead. One was if Omicron was more infectious, more harmful and vaccines did not work well against it. 

The other scenario was if Omicron was more infectious, but turned out to be milder. Then, “in time, a less harmful virus may dominate over Delta”, he said.

The problem facing leaders as they wait to find out which way the pendulum swings on Omicron is what to do in the interim.

While many countries have acted swiftly, imposing travel bans, it has raised questions about whether nations may need to adjust their expectations about what living with the virus looks like.

Will Omicron impact Christmas?

Around the world people are now asking themselves the same questions: Is it still safe to go on holiday? Is Christmas cancelled? Will this pandemic ever end?

In almost no time at all, Omicron had spread to more than 57 countries as of December 9. It is not clear yet whether the variant will be as prevalent as the Delta strain, which is in over 170 countries, but many fear it could be just as transmissible.

But there may be a silver lining. 

It’s very likely we will see new variants emerge and each will have to be closely monitored. But in Professor Dantas’s view, so far our vaccine strategies and other public health measures are working and they can protect us against future variants.

“The more familiar we are with a virus, the more success we’ve had in containing it, the more we understand it, then we are in a much stronger control position,” Professor Bennett said. “But we’re still in that transition.”