Warning sounded on Omicron

COVID-19 cases are surging in New South Wales and continue to rise in other parts of Australia as authorities warn transmission of the Omicron variant has a doubling time of around two days.

It’s an anxious time, with thousands preparing to travel around the country over the summer break, and as some experts claim governments may not be doing enough to control the virus’ spread – particularly in NSW. 

Health Minister Greg Hunt says Australia remains “overwhelmingly towards opening up” and no states or territories had indicated further restrictions at this point in time.

“The clear direction is higher vaccination and less restrictions,” he said on Sunday.

With Omicron expected to fast become Australia’s dominant variant, research by a team from the University of Hong Kong (that is yet to be peer reviewed but has been widely published) shows the variant could be 70 times more infectious than Delta.

The Executive Director of World Health Organization (WHO)’s health emergencies programme, Dr Mike Ryan, says Omicron’s highly infectious nature is because the virus has changed the shape and ability of its spike protein over the past two years to make it more transmissible among humans.

At the same time, preliminary research appears to show current vaccines are less effective against the new variant, which means other health measures such as distancing and mask wearing are in the spotlight.

So, how much do current vaccines protect us and how important is mask wearing in Australia as Omicron takes hold?

How much do current vaccines protect us?

Recent research from the UK has shown that having two doses of a COVID-19 vaccine offers less defence against symptomatic infection from the Omicron variant than with Delta.

But the good news is a booster does appear to raise protection considerably to 70 or 75 per cent, though it remains unclear whether the vaccines will protect against hospitalisation and deaths with the new variant.

Different COVID-19 vaccines have been found to be safe and effective as boosters. The results of the Cov-Boost trial, published in December, looked at the use of seven different vaccines as boosters after two doses of either the AstraZeneca or Pfizer vaccines: AstraZeneca, Curevac, Johnson and Johnson (Janssen), Moderna, Novavax, Pfizer and Valneva.

The trial found that all vaccines (except for Curevac) boosted the immune response, although the level of antibodies differed significantly, depending on the mix of vaccines.

Epidemiologists and health experts agree triple vaccination is a crucial line of defence against Omicron, but claim other measures such as social distancing, mixing outdoors where possible and mask wearing remain important in stopping the spread.

Dr Benjamin Veness, executive member of OzSAGE – a multi-disciplinary network of Australian experts that offers advice on the pandemic response – and co-founder of Health Care Workers Australia, says mask wearing is key.

What do experts suggest regarding masks?

Calls from epidemiologists and public health experts to mandate masks in all indoor settings, particularly in NSW, have been getting louder.

The Australian Medical Association (AMA) has called on the NSW government to reimpose restrictions across the state following a steep rise in infections that AMA President Omar Khorshid described on Saturday as “almost vertical”.

A study published in the American journal of Preventative Medicine in November shows that nations that imposed mask mandates at the beginning of the pandemic had significantly lower death rates per million than countries that did not enforce mask rules.

The study examined 44 countries in Asia and Europe, 27 countries with mask mandates and 17 without, between February and May 2020. It found the average COVID-19 mortality per million in countries without face mask policies was 288.54 per million compared to the 48.40 per million in countries with national mask mandates.

And, this was before the emergence of the highly transmissible Omicron. Dr Veness said people should be wearing a mask regardless of how many vaccinations they’ve had.+

Are our leaders living in Wonderland?

The Omicron was only declared a variant of concern by WHO on 26 November, yet it is rapidly infecting people around the world, and now accounts for 20% of all cases in the UK. Initial laboratory data shows that this highly mutated variant is about twice as transmissible as the Delta variant, and more easily evades immunity. 

Because of this, countries like the US and the UK are swiftly rolling out booster shots, allowing people to have one 12 weeks after their second dose. A week ago, we were told that we would have to wait six months from our second dose before we could get a booster. Then Atagi changed that to five months. 

Throughout the epidemic, there has always been a fine balance between protecting the public and minimising damage to the economy. Most governments have rightly given public health priority over business. After all, the first priority of any government is to protect its citizens. However, the government has always been reluctant to introduce lockdowns because of their impact on business. But there are many public health measures that we can take that have little or no impact on business – things like wearing face masks in shops, hand sanitisers, and improved ventilation.

A sensible approach from the government would be to at the very least retain these measures, especially now in the face of rapidly rising case numbers, and in the lead-up to Christmas shopping and festivities. These are strange times.