After the peak

The end of 2021 was meant to herald the arrival of Australia’s “hot vaxxed summer”. Despite concerns over a slow start, vaccination rates were high, marathon lockdowns had ended, and international border closures — the country’s first line of defence against COVID-19 — had finally started to lift after nearly two years.

The next two weeks

While most experts agree signs suggest we’re on the other side of this wave, that doesn’t mean we’re going to see a smooth, or swift, decline in case numbers.

Young adults in their 20s drove the wave, with a number of superspreader events early on lighting a spark that couldn’t be extinguished. But Professor Bennett says the virus has now spread outside these communities, which means the decline will be far less quick.

Another curve ball will be the beginning of a new school year next week; children returning to classrooms, widespread screening testing, and increased movement could mean an uptick of case numbers in the short term.

The next two months

By the end of March, Australians will be well out of holiday mode and back into the swing of day-to-day life. What this will look like is hard to say before the impacts of the next few weeks are felt, but Professor Bennett suggests it’ll be a gradual adjustment towards the “new normal”.

Without case numbers to look to for what is normal, Professor Bennett says the new standard will be whether businesses can operate normally, the healthcare system isn’t overrun, and people are able to move around freely.

This will be impacted by growing numbers of people who have recently recovered from the virus, and are therefore exempt from isolation, and changing quarantine rules around the country.

The next 12 months

With the ever-looming threat of a new variant, experts say the greatest hope for a ticket out of this pandemic is a “universal vaccine”. This refers to a vaccine that has been developed to protect against all possible variations of the virus, not just the ones we know about.

Research is underway into creating such a vaccine, but Professor Esterman warns it’s unlikely to be here before the year is up. That means we’ll still be living alongside COVID in 12 months time.