Omicron waves peak in Australia Live with it or Kill it?

Australia may have reached its Omicron peak with the burden on the health system lower than earlier projections. Hospitalisation admissions have started dropping in Victoria and Chief Health Officer Brett Sutton says Victoria is close to a peak, fell to 998, down from 1,002 patients on Sunday. There are fewer COVID-19 hospitalisations in New South Wales, and its peak is far lower than earlier projections for hospital demand.

Fewer healthcare workers are also currently in isolation, partly due to changed protocols. Hospitalisation is steadily rising in Queensland at 863 but a slowing of admissions is expected to occur soon. Most states are confident that they are nearing a peak in this Omicron wave.

Health Minister Greg Hunt has declared the Omicron variant is nearing its peak across several infection hotspots as states continue to grapple with rising case numbers. Mr Hunt said hospitalisation numbers were showing promising signs of stabilising after COVID-19 infections had soared during the Omicron wave.

(IMG 1)

UK became an early lead for “live with virus”

Throughout the pandemic, the United Kingdom has, at times, been an early indicator to other countries of the dangers posed by new variants. Now Omicron is swiftly moving through Britain, with cases already surpassing the UK’s peak pandemic levels and setting new records.

England – and the rest of the UK, for that matter – is one of best protected nations when you combine the immunity built up by vaccination and previous infection. More than 97% of the population has antibodies, the latest Office for National Statistics data suggests. When the pandemic began, that was, of course, 0%.

This does not necessarily mean people are immune to infection, but our bodies have become better at fighting the virus. The result is Omicron is now causing milder illness and the proportion of infected people dying has dropped markedly.

More than 15,000 people in England are in hospital with Covid, although this is not entirely what it seems as close to half of them have been admitted for something else rather than being seriously ill with the virus.

More freedom to “live with it”

Meanwhile, the rise of Omicron meant the effectiveness of two vaccine doses in preventing infection has been significantly reduced, weakening the argument for Covid passes to access events. Instead, what many experts believe will be crucial now is the behaviour of the public.

Just because the government is giving people more freedom, it does not mean there will be a headlong rush back to normal.

This has been seen throughout the pandemic. Even after England’s 19 July “Freedom Day”, mixing patterns did not rebound back to pre-pandemic levels, when people would average 10 contacts a day, helping keep the virus largely in check until the arrival of Omicron.

Now the public is again being asked to manage the risks, and that behaviour will determine the course of the pandemic over the coming weeks.

HK’s “zero covid policy”

Chief Executive Carrie Lam said Saturday that Hong Kong is sticking with its zero-infections policy of suppressing outbreaks, saying the city wasn’t ready to live with the virus and its vaccination rate is too low.

Hong Kong has struggled to get its most vulnerable vaccinated despite wide vaccine availability. Overall, 71% of Hong Kong residents have received two doses of a coronavirus vaccine. But less than half of people in their 70s have received two shots, while the rate is under a fifth for people in their 80s.

While much of the world was hit repeatedly by mass Covid-19 outbreaks, Hong Kong largely kept the virus out, recording fewer than 14,000 cases and 213 deaths since the pandemic began. Recent outbreaks of both Delta and Omicron variants ended a monthslong stretch of almost no locally transmitted cases.

With community transmissions rising to more than 100 over the weekend, all schools will be closed starting Monday, while restaurants remain closed for dine-in after 6 p.m. Gyms, pools and bars are shut. More concerning for international businesses and employees is a requirement that almost all arrivals spend three weeks in hotel quarantine or be sent to a hospital if they test positive for the virus. Most nonresidents are barred from entering.

See no ends and hopes

The highly transmissible omicron variant is going to be a “very difficult challenge” for Hong Kong as the city sticks to its zero-Covid policy, a former U.S. diplomat said. People understand that Hong Kong wants to reopen the border with mainland China, and that it needs to follow the same zero-Covid policy in order to achieve that. In the long run, however, the zero tolerance policy is “not sustainable and unnecessary, and the arrival of Omicron might make it even more challenging”.