Have Australia and the world ready to ‘let Covid rip’?

As 2021 drew to a close, many Australians were cautiously optimistic that the worst of the Covid-19 pandemic was behind them.

The country had surpassed ambitious vaccine targets, meaning its rolling lockdowns could cease, both internal and international borders would reopen, and as Prime Minister Scott Morrison declared, it was now possible to “live with this virus.”

But as Australia moved to change course on its pandemic strategy, the highly transmissible omicron variant hit. In just over a month, cases have risen from around 1,000 a day to more than 100,000 a day. Hallmarks of the pandemic that Australia mostly avoided began to emerge. The health system is buckling. Many supermarket shelves are bare as sick workers stay home.

Despite this surge in cases, most Australian states and territories are holding the line and allowing the virus to circulate in their communities, which critics have labeled the “let it rip” approach. But is it all bad news?

‘Should we be doing this?’

For much of the pandemic, Australia aimed for zero Covid cases, employing regular lockdowns (the country’s second-largest city, Melbourne, was in lockdown for more than 260 days) and extremely strict border policies. And it worked —  the nation’s Covid mortality rate has been among the lowest in the world.

But as the pandemic ground on, the government decided restrictions could start to be dramatically loosened when a state or territory vaccinated 80 percent of its over-16 population. All states and territories achieved this in the final months of last year.

Practices that had become part of everyday life, such as wearing masks in certain settings and checking into venues via government apps for contact tracing purposes, were soon relaxed. (Australia did require that international arrivals be vaccinated, leading to the Novak Djokovic saga.)

More countries ease coronavirus restrictions

The early moves to relax such restrictions evoke a new turning point in a nearly two-year pandemic that has been full of them.

Omicron, the Geneva-based World Health Organisation says, has fuelled more cases — 90 million — in the world over the last 10 weeks than during all of 2020, the outbreak’s first full year.

WHO acknowledges some countries can judiciously consider easing the rules if they boast high immunity rates, strong health care systems and favourable epidemiological curves.

Omicron is less likely to cause severe illness than the previous Delta variant, according to studies. Omicron spreads even more easily than other coronavirus strains, and has already become dominant in many countries. It also more easily infects those who have been vaccinated or had previously been infected by prior versions of the virus.

Europe is entering a plausible endgame to the COVID-19 pandemic

The director of the World Health Organization’s (WHO) Europe office says the continent is now entering a “plausible endgame” to the pandemic and that the number of coronavirus deaths is starting to plateau.

As the winter subsides in much of Europe, when the virus’s transmission naturally drops, Dr Kluge said the upcoming spring “leaves us with the possibility for a long period of tranquillity and a much higher level of population defence against any resurgence in transmission”.

Even if another variant emerges, Dr Kluge said that health authorities in Europe should be able to keep COVID in check, provided immunisation and boosting efforts continue, along with other public health interventions.

Numerous countries across Europe, including Britain and Denmark, have dropped nearly all of their coronavirus restrictions after saying that their Omicron wave has peaked.

Others, including Spain, are now considering whether to consider COVID to be an endemic problem that might be handled more like seasonal flu.

Hong Kong can’t maintain ‘dynamic zero-Covid’

A persistent failure to suppress the current outbreak could leave Hong Kong facing more stringent measures with no end in sight, even as the authorities refuse to contemplate a more sustainable, business-friendly mitigation approach.It is time for the Hong Kong government to accept the possibility that even if zero-Covid is a desirable goal, it is not realistic or achievable. Alternative strategies for dealing with the virus must now be considered.

The government argues that it has to persist with “dynamic zero-Covid” – accepting that infections will happen but then moving quickly to stamp them out – because most of the city’s elderly residents are unvaccinated and therefore vulnerable. Just half of those in their 70s and only one-fifth of residents in their 80s have been double jabbed so far.

Under the current strategy, social distancing measures can only be relaxed once vaccination rates among the elderly are sufficiently high – say 80 per cent.

China hasn’t reported COVID-death in year with ‘zero tolerance’

Mainland China, where COVID-19 originated more than two years ago, has not reported a fatality in one year with the nation striving to become the exception to worldwide surges, including during the Winter Olympics.

Many of the 2,900 athletes from 84 countries have had to contend with the Delta variant and then Omicron. China has adopted a zero-tolerance stance on coronavirus, locking down cities of several million people and massive testing.

And this has been applied to the Olympics in a “closed loop” with 60,000 competitors, journalists and other officials cut off from others and being tested for COVID-19 every day. Competition takes place in thee locations in Bejing where the indoor events, including figure skating, are held.

Unlike in other nations where events are being played in packed stadiums, including more than 100,000 in the United States, attendance is sparce with no foreigners allowed and only invited guests allowed in venues. The attendance at the opening ceremonies Friday in the “bird cage” was restricted to 40% of the 80,000 capacity at the 2008 Summer Games.

Olympic athletes complain of Covid quarantine conditions

The International Olympic Committee has admitted that conditions for athletes forced to isolate after testing positive for coronavirus had not met expectations after German team officials complained of limited access to food and internet in quarantine.

Christophe Dubi, executive director of the Olympic Games, said most concerns over isolation had been addressed but conceded that improvements were needed after German officials called the conditions “unacceptable”.

Positive cases within the closed-loop system for Olympics participants, which is designed to minimise transmission, fell to just 10 on Saturday, compared with 45 a day earlier.

The contrast against covid policies

While Europe has rapidly lifted restrictions, China may take a more gradual approach, said Dale Fisher from the National University of Singapore’s Yong Loo Lin School of Medicine.

China has not started the “rite of passage” to let the “virus in and deal with the consequences,” Fisher said.

“I think when China does decide to move, it will be a gradual … approach, similar to Singapore,” he said.