Vaxzevria: saving the rest of the world

Today, the coronavirus landscape – and the status of their jab, ChAdOx1 nCoV-19 – looks very different. In the UK, half the population have had their vaccine, restrictions have ended, and while cases and hospitalisations are rising in the UK, a dramatic uptick in deaths is not expected. The jab has saved more than a million lives, according to estimates, but its reputation has been battered by a toxic mix of misinformation, miscommunication and mishaps. Two years after Pollard, Gilbert and their teams first began making the miracle jab now known as Vaxzevria or Covishield, it has been sidelined in the UK and Europe, and snubbed in the US.

Instead, ChAdOx1 nCoV-19 is gearing up for what will probably be its final act: saving the rest of the world. About 2.6bn doses of it have been distributed to 183 countries, but 3 billion people have yet to receive a first dose of any Covid jab. The highly infectious Omicron variant is flagging in the west, but new cases are soaring in less-vaccinated areas. Globally, daily cases remain high, averaging about 1.8m – three times the 600,000 a day in December. Cases are rising in the Middle East, Asia and Latin America, and the low cost and ease with which the Oxford/AstraZeneca vaccine could be deployed to these regions, as well as the more “inaccessible parts of the world”, meant the jab could still play a crucial role in helping end the pandemic, Pollard said.

Instead, ChAdOx1 nCoV-19 is gearing up for what will probably be its final act: saving the rest of the world. About 2.6bn doses of it have been distributed to 183 countries, but 3 billion people have yet to receive a first dose of any Covid jab. The highly infectious Omicron variant is flagging in the west, but new cases are soaring in less-vaccinated areas. Globally, daily cases remain high, averaging about 1.8m – three times the 600,000 a day in December. Cases are rising in the Middle East, Asia and Latin America, and the low cost and ease with which the Oxford/AstraZeneca vaccine could be deployed to these regions, as well as the more “inaccessible parts of the world”, meant the jab could still play a crucial role in helping end the pandemic, Pollard said.

Two years after the jab’s inception, Pascal Soriot, the chief executive of AstraZeneca, insists he has no regrets. “It is really hard to regret anything when you have delivered 2.6bn doses of vaccine, saved 1 million lives around the world and enabled economies in many countries to restart,” he said. “A lot of people focus on some of the challenges that we faced in parts of the world, but I would like to remind everybody again that the US and Europe represent about 10% of the world’s population.”

Indeed, a data analysis for the Guardian by Airfinity, the health analytics company, reveals that despite the jab’s trials and tribulations, it is already reaching every corner of the globe. Among the 2.6bn doses delivered, 166m have gone to Brazil, 84m to Mexico, 60m to Vietnam, 54m to the Philippines, 19m to Nigeria, and 16m to Iran, for example. Even Germany and France, once the sources of slipshod reporting and false claims about the jab, have quietly accepted 31m and 10m doses respectively, the analysis reveals.

Despite the early “excessive hype”, Tang says it remains an “effective” and “useful” vaccine that can still play a big role. “The AZ vaccine is cheap, easy to store and its overall efficacy is still generally sufficient to roll out across many countries to offer protection against severe Covid-19.” Designed to be sold not-for-profit – for about £3 a dose, a fifth of the price of Pfizer’s jab – it recently started turning a modest profit. Rivals have made tens of billions of dollars but Pollard calls AstraZeneca “morally brave” for ignoring the “perverse commercial incentive in a pandemic to sell first to the rich”. A spokesperson says low-income nations will continue to receive the vaccine on a not-for-profit basis.

AstraZeneca is under contract to deliver a further 1.4bn doses worldwide this year, according to a second Airfinity data analysis for the Guardian. “We estimate these [orders] will be fulfilled by the autumn,” said Matt Linley, Airfinity’s analytics director. Some of AstraZeneca’s 25 facilities in 15 countries will reduce their output after that, he expects. “However, we do not foresee demand for the AstraZeneca jab ending completely,” Linley added. “There will remain a need for it, although at a much lower level, especially in difficult to reach parts of the world.”