Xi Jinping’s Absence from the G20: India Wants to Show Greater Influence

A spokesman for China’s Foreign Ministry announced on Monday that at the invitation of the Indian government, Premier Li Qiang will attend the Group of 20 (G20) summit in New Delhi, India, on September 9th and 10th. Last week, foreign media disclosed that Chinese President Xi Jinping might not attend the G20 India summit, the first time since he took power that he has not participated in the G20 summit. U.S. President Joe Biden was disappointed by the news that Xi would not attend the G20 summit. India is showing the world that it is a global leader, and the competition with China is intensifying. Australia’s Prime Minister, Mr. Albanese, had hoped to meet with Xi at the G20 to further strengthen the easing relationship between the two countries, but this time it is clear that this will not be the case.

India-China relations hit bottom

Chinese President Xi Jinping and Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi met briefly at the BRICS summit in Johannesburg, South Africa, last month on the 23rd of last month and expressed their desire to ease bilateral relations. But after the meeting, statements from both sides underscored the continuing tensions between the two countries. China’s foreign ministry said Xi Jinping had met Modi “by appointment”, while India responded that it had received a “pending” request for a meeting from China. On August 28, Beijing released a new official map of China, which further angered India.

The dispute between India and China over the Himalayan border has been going on for three years. The new Chinese map includes land over which India claims sovereignty, including territory close to where the two countries will clash in 2020. India has lodged a “strong protest” with China. Not only India, but also the Philippines, Malaysia, Indonesia and Taiwan have responded by rejecting the new map, which has been criticized as unjustified, and the issue of territorial disputes may turn the attention of the G20 summit to making a stronger statement against China, emphasizing stability in the Pacific.

Tensions between India and China could lead to the failure of a joint communiqué for the first time since the G20 was founded in 1999. Several unnamed sources involved in the discussions said that China had already objected to the draft joint communiqué’s wording on emerging market debt and condemnation of Russia’s war in Ukraine at the G20 preparatory meeting, and now even Xi Jinping will not be attending the G20, a deliberate snub in comparison to his flight to South Africa last week for the BRICS summit.

Aparna Bond, a researcher on South Asia at the Hudson Institute, believes that given the current relationship between India and China, travelling to India for the G20 summit should make Xi uncomfortable, given that India has become a beneficiary of the West’s desire to diversify its investments in China, but she also believes that perhaps Xi wants to use this opportunity to tell the Chinese public that India’s presidency is not a good idea for China. But she also thinks that perhaps Xi Jinping is trying to tell the Chinese public that India’s presidency of the conference is not that important to China. In a sense, this may also reflect Xi’s own insecurity, as he may be left alone among the leaders at the meeting. Meanwhile, Russia has announced that President Vladimir Putin has no plans to attend the summit in New Delhi. Given the announcement of China’s new map and the absence of Xi Jinping and Putin, the G20 summit is likely to place greater emphasis on the importance of maintaining regional security in the Indo-Pacific.

India’s Growing Diplomatic Influence

In addition to the military conflict on the border, both countries have ambitions to become leaders of the ‘South World’. In the international arena, the South has become a key swing state, with a growing divide between the global rules espoused by the US and its allies on the one hand, and the worldviews of China and Russia on the other.

India has always been an important member of the ‘Global South’ and is committed to establishing itself as a leader of the ‘Global South’ countries. As the host of the 2023 summit, the theme of the New Delhi summit was “One Planet, One Family, One Future”, and the agenda centered on issues facing low-income countries in the Global South, including unsustainable debt, inflation, food security, and climate change. India has always been well respected in the Global South and is not considered part of any bloc, nor was it part of any bloc during the Cold War.

Unlike China’s increasingly strained relationship with the US and the West, India can bridge the gap between the South and the developed West and can represent the Global South in close coordination with the West. Despite its excellent strategic partnership with the US, India has never been a security ally of the US. Therefore, India is seen as an impartial and objective country. India is also a member of the Quadrilateral Security Dialogue (QUAD), an informal strategic dialogue with Japan, the US and Australia. India also enjoys good relations with Europe. In May this year, India was invited to the G7 Hiroshima Summit along with other ‘southern countries’ such as Brazil, Comoros, Indonesia and Vietnam.

In recent years, India has grown in size to become the world’s fifth largest and fastest-growing economy, and by 2030, it is expected to become the world’s third-largest economy in terms of GDP. India is no longer satisfied with its current position in the world, but is aiming to increase its international voice through economic growth, and to take advantage of opportunities to play a more important role in international affairs. If the G20 summit in New Delhi does not include Xi Jinping, it will be the first time he has been absent since taking office. Except for 2021, when he missed the summit in Rome, Italy, citing strict quarantine measures, Xi has attended all the G20 summits since he took power in 2013 and has been active in delivering China’s message at the summits. This decision is likely to increase India’s diplomatic influence significantly as a result of the summit.

The “Beam” is a hard one to untie

Since India became the rotating president of the G20 in December last year, its presidency has been seen by Prime Minister Narendra Modi as a symbol of India’s status as a world power to the world and to the people of the country. More than 200 meetings are held in the name of the G20 throughout the year, spreading across 56 cities in different parts of India, with the peak being the Leaders’ Summit in September. The highlight is the Leaders’ Summit in September, which some Indian commentators have described as the “most prestigious international event” since India hosted the 1983 Non-Aligned Movement Summit. With the summit just around the corner, India is on tenterhooks. In addition to deploying 130,000 security personnel to maintain security and heighten vigilance, India has also been rehearsing the routes of the delegations from their hotels to the event venue.

The absence of Xi Jinping from the G20 for the first time in 2023 gives India the perfect opportunity to show its strength to the world, but it could also be a blow to Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi. After all, China is still a key member of the G20, and the expected side events between US and Chinese leaders will not take place. When Modi hosted the Global South Summit in January this year, China, a self-proclaimed “natural member” of the Global South, was conspicuously absent. Though both India and China have the will to run the ‘global South’, their approaches are fundamentally different. While China is clearly oriented towards a non-Western structure – after all, China has now become the other pole of the world on a par with the US – India is oriented towards the integration of the Global South into a structure that involves the West. The overt and covert rivalry between India and China is far from over.

India has been pursuing a permanent membership of the Security Council in the United Nations, but its repeated failure to get through, and its threat to withdraw from the UN and form a new UN, are all signals from India to the international community that it seeks to play a more important role on the world stage. China, on the other hand, is unlikely to give up the international status it already enjoys. Relations between India and neighboring China have been tense in recent years; in June 2020, the two countries’ armies clashed in the Garhwal Valley, resulting in casualties. As a result of diplomatic discord over border disputes, 43% of Indians consider China to be the biggest military threat, compared to 13% for “arch-enemy” Pakistan, making it even more difficult to resolve the relationship between India and China that was forged half a century ago.

On the 4th of this month, at the time of the summit, India launched a large-scale military exercise, the location of which includes the unresolved dispute over the Sino-Indian border area, and the military exercise will continue during the summit. Relations between India and China have always been tense due to the border standoff, and the absence of Xi Jinping is certain to bring more disputes to the already tense relations between the two countries, and also add great uncertainty to the upcoming G20 summit.

Changes in the World

China’s economic emergence on the world stage began more than three decades ago, and accelerated with China’s accession to the World Trade Organization (WTO). During this period, India did not become a world factory like China, but clearly followed a different path. However, India’s high-tech development should not be overlooked. The trade war between China and the United States has led to technological and economic sanctions against China by the United States, and it is clear that India is the biggest beneficiary. This can also be said to be an opportunity for India’s development.

In the past, a large number of Indians emigrated to Western countries, which also brought opportunities for India’s economic development. In Australia, the number of immigrants from India has already surpassed that of China. Indian Prime Minister Rafael Moody’s visit to Australia has been warmly welcomed by the Chinese community, which shows that Indian-Australians have a great influence on Australia. The Prime Minister of the United Kingdom, Rishi Sunak, is also of Indian descent, which shows that the acceptance of Indian immigrants in western countries is higher than that of Chinese immigrants. It can also be said that the rising influence of India would be easily supported by the western society.

At the same time, the West is also willing to draw India as an ally. India’s tradition of not making alliances shows that she is not willing to follow the Western agenda unconditionally, but it does not mean that she is not willing to cooperate with the West. On the contrary, India’s attitude was to have the West absorb and value her views on the world.

China’s war-wolf diplomacy at this time, and its willingness to go against the West, may well have increased India’s weight in the West. India’s geographic location in Asia, in close proximity to China, may have acted as a buffer between the West and China, and may have altered the balance of power among the world’s nations.

It can be said that the relationship between China, the United States and the West is in the process of adjustment, and India can be said to play a very important strategic role.

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