Taiwan Election Settles, Another Green Victory Highlights Public Opinion

On January 13, Taiwan held the 2024 presidential and legislative elections. The ruling Democratic Progressive Party (DPP) candidate, Lai Ching-teh, won the election with more than 5.58 million votes, breaking Taiwan’s eight-year party rotation “curse” – the party will enter its third consecutive four-year term, which is unprecedented under Taiwan’s current electoral system. This is unprecedented under Taiwan’s current electoral system. However, in the Legislative Yuan election, no party won more than half of the seats, with the DPP losing one seat to the KMT, and Ke Wen-je’s People’s Party winning 8 seats, which could become a key minority in Taiwan’s political scene in the future. The result of the Taiwan election will have a profound impact on the world. Immediately after the announcement of Lai’s victory, many Western countries sent congratulatory messages to Lai, emphasizing that the DPP presidential candidate’s re-election for a third term was a success of Taiwan’s democratic election and the people’s choice. The U.S. Congress immediately sent a cross-party delegation to Taiwan to meet with Tsai Ing-wen, Lai Ching-teh, and the candidates to express their affirmation and support for the election results.

Unprecedented Victory

In recent years, the international and cross-strait situation has changed dramatically. Especially since Xi Jinping came to power, Beijing has always put the unification of Taiwan on its agenda. This year, China’s interference in Taiwan’s elections is more diverse than ever. Military and economic carrots and sticks, but also cognitive warfare, information warfare, and AI technology. Xi Jinping declared a few weeks ago that unification is “historically inevitable”. Two days before the election, former Taiwanese President Ma Ying-jeou said in an interview with Deutsche Welle that he had to trust Xi Jinping in cross-strait relations, and also bluntly said that Taiwan could not defeat the mainland, which means that Taiwan’s security is pinned on the goodwill of Xi Jinping.

But none of this has changed public opinion – the election results show that the democratic and anti-communist line is still upheld by Taiwan voters. The current vice president, Lai Ching-te, a former doctor, will be the new leader of Taiwan, and Beijing regards him as a staunchly pro-independence advocate. Taiwan’s spontaneous revolt is proof of what many have already seen: Beijing’s pressure on Taiwan – including economic sanctions and military harassment at sea and in the air – only reinforces Taiwan’s desire to defend its status quo of independence and to get rid of the huge shadow of China. The disillusionment with “one country, two systems, no change for 50 years” in Hong Keng is a wake-up call for the Taiwanese people.

Despite Taiwan’s autonomy since the 1940s, China has always emphasized its sovereignty over the island and its surrounding territories. China’s Taiwan Affairs Office responded to Lai’s election in mild terms, without mentioning him by name. Chen Binhua, a spokesman for the office, said “Taiwan is China’s Taiwan,” noting that the Democratic Progressive Party (DPP) “does not represent the mainstream of public opinion on the island,” and emphasized that the vote “will not change the basic pattern and development trend of cross-strait relations. Chen said the mainland’s position on resolving the Taiwan issue and completing national unification has been consistent and its will is rock-solid. However, from the point of view of the Taiwanese people, Taiwan has been under Japanese rule for 50 years since 1895, and the Republic of China (ROC) has ruled the country since then, and has given the Taiwanese the right to elect the ruling government since 1996, whereas the authoritarian Communist Party of China (CPC) has never ruled Taiwan directly for more than a hundred years, and the CPC regime, which was only established in 1949, has demanded Taiwan’s return to the country, which is in fact regarded as an act of aggression.

Therefore, both China and Taiwan have always regarded this election as a choice between war and peace in Taiwan. According to Taiwan’s constitution, President Tsai Ing-wen cannot be re-elected after two consecutive terms. The Democratic Progressive Party (DPP) led by Lai Ching-Te, which advocates Taiwan’s independent identity and rejects China’s territorial claims, succeeded in winning a third term in office, which is unprecedented under Taiwan’s current electoral system. The results of the Taiwan election showed the victory of democracy, the failure of China’s intervention in the Taiwan election, and the failure of the KMT’s cross-strait policy to be accepted by Taiwan voters. The distance between this noisy democracy and China and its dream of unification has become even more remote.

Reinforced Identity

For Beijing, Taiwan’s efforts in recent years to distinguish itself from the mainland have posed a dangerous obstacle to the Chinese government’s efforts to cajole or coerce Taiwan into its political orbit. 2022 In October, Xi Jinping warned against what he saw as a trend toward secession: “Anyone who forgets his ancestry, betrays his motherland, or splits up the country will never have a good ending. However, this statement of authority has been constantly challenged. The Qing government, which ceded Taiwan to Japan, clearly handed over the administration of China to the Republic of China (R.O.C.) government. Today, the ROC government still effectively governs Taiwan, and has given up the claim of governing the mainland, so the ROC has effectively become the ROC of the Taiwanese. Before his election campaign, Lai Ching-Te also emphasized that Taiwan does not need to fight for independence, because Taiwan is already an independent democracy. It can be said that China’s rule over Taiwan can be legally considered as an invader from outside.

Most Taiwanese do not want to be absorbed by Communist China, but they also want to avoid the risk of war. The results of the latest election prove that public opinion – cross-strait relations are still the elephant in the room, an issue that affects Taiwan’s security and sovereignty – is trending toward more Taiwanese choosing the Democratic Progressive Party (DPP) to defend Taiwan’s democracy, and that China’s interference and intimidation seem to be counterproductive.

According to a 2022 survey conducted by the Election Research Center of the National Chengchi University in Taipei, more than 60 percent of the island’s 23 million-plus Taiwanese consider themselves to be solely Taiwanese, triple the percentage in 1992, and only 2 percent consider themselves to be Chinese, up from 25 percent 30 years ago. The victory of China’s least favorite candidate, Lai Ching-teh, in this three-way race is likely to maintain the status quo on the island and between Washington and Beijing, and continue geopolitical tensions; the choice of the Democratic Progressive Party (DPP) also confirms more voters’ sense of belonging and identifying as “Taiwanese” rather than “Chinese”.

Taiwanese people’s strong sense of self-identity stems from a series of social, cultural, and educational changes since the 1950s, which have strengthened Taiwan’s local consciousness and cultural characteristics. This local consciousness and cultural characteristics have further enhanced the political participation and civic awareness of the Taiwanese. Among Taiwanese, the answer to a question asked decades ago – do you consider yourself Chinese or Taiwanese? -has become increasingly inconsistent, which is a wake-up call for Beijing. For Taiwan’s political parties, it’s a subtle new dance in which ideological certainty is being quietly put on hold.

As an emerging democracy, Taiwan has always ranked high on the Global Democracy Index. Taiwan has been a democratic success story since the first direct presidential election in 1996, the culmination of decades of struggle against authoritarian rule and martial law. Lai pledged to maintain Tsai’s line of maintaining a careful balance between the U.S. and China, asserting that Taiwan is already a sovereign state, not affiliated with the People’s Republic of China, and that there is no need to declare independence. Lai said he would maintain the status quo in cross-strait relations and was determined to “protect Taiwan” from China’s “cultural attack and military intimidation,” replacing blockades with exchanges and confrontation with dialogue.

He emphasized the democratic governance of Taiwan, and won the recognition and support of many Western societies for Taiwan. In the current path of China’s delinking from the West, it is believed that many Western countries are extremely reluctant to see the democratic Taiwan being incorporated into China, and the situation has a tendency to be intensified.

Canberra’s dilemma

The results of the Taiwan elections show a victory for democracy, a failure of Chinese intervention in Taiwan, and a failure of the Kuomintang’s cross-strait policy to be accepted by the electorate. However, the next four years will still be difficult for the victorious Democratic Progressive Party (DPP), as it does not have an absolute majority in the Legislative Council. One of the direct consequences of this is that it is difficult to implement policies on the ground, and Ke Wen-je’s 8 seats are crucial. Whether the PPP under Ke’s leadership will be able to break away from partisan rivalries in the face of controversial issues is still unknown; it is not hard to predict that the efficiency of the DPP’s administration in the next four years may also be significantly reduced compared to the previous eight years. To take a step back, if we can get Ke’s key seats, we will have to give the PPP a chance to grow bigger and stronger. In the next four years, the cross-strait situation in the Taiwan Strait is still full of uncertainties. Putting aside the factor of regional security, there is a difficult question in front of the Australian government at this moment.

With both China and Taiwan seeking to join the Comprehensive and Progressive Agreement for Trans-Pacific Partnership (CPTPP), Australia has a difficult choice to make, as allowing Taiwan to join the CPTPP could result in the creation of a new trading partnership. Allowing Taiwan to join this trading partnership could create tensions with China. Prime Minister Anthony Albanese’s stance on China is to cooperate where we can, and accept differences where necessary. Given China’s economic strength, Canberra is unlikely to risk undermining diplomatic relations with Beijing, and is more likely to maintain the current diplomatic status quo – establishing formal diplomatic relations with China and recognizing the “One China” policy – while Australia, although it has never formally recognized Taiwan as a country, maintains unofficial economic and cultural ties with Taipei. Meanwhile, although Australia has never officially recognized Taiwan as a country, it still maintains unofficial economic and cultural ties with Taipei.

On January 14, the Australian Department of Foreign Affairs congratulated Lai Ching-teh on his victory in Taiwan’s January 13 election and congratulated the people of Taiwan on the peaceful exercise of their democratic rights; it also said that the smooth conduct of the election was a testament to the maturity and strength of Taiwan’s democracy. The Australian Department of Foreign Affairs said Australia looks forward to continuing to work with Taiwan to advance our important trade and investment relationship, and to strengthen our longstanding and deepening exchanges in the areas of education, science and culture, as well as people-to-people exchanges. This expectation is in line with Taiwan’s approach, which, in an effort to steadily decouple itself from China’s economy, has implemented a series of policies to encourage closer economic ties with Southeast Asia, South Asia, Australia and New Zealand.

The ties between Taiwan and Australia are closer than one might think, given their common location in the Indo-Pacific region. China is Australia’s number one trading partner and Taiwan is Australia’s seventh largest, and beyond the economic impact, regional stability is vital to governments around the world, including Australia. In the event of a regional conflict, this would have a direct impact on Australia’s economic interests. Migration from Taiwan to Australia has also been on the rise in the last decade. In the 2016 Australian Census, there were 70,790 Taiwanese migrants in Australia that year. The number of young Taiwanese going to Australia for working vacations is the fifth highest in the world, and in 2017-2018, nearly 70% of Taiwanese youths chose Australia as their first choice for overseas working vacations. According to Australian government statistics, Taiwan has become the second largest source country for working vacation makers to Australia, with 22,000 people coming to Australia every year. How to accept these new immigrants from Taiwan, how to understand their active differentiation of their identity from that of immigrants from Mainland China, and how to help them integrate their identity and gain a new sense of identity and belonging in a land that is still predominantly white, but which promotes cultural pluralism and tolerance, are issues that the Australian government cannot evade.

There are also more Hong Kong people who have recently moved to Australia who do not consider themselves Chinese. Whether or not the Australian government will separate “Chinese” from “Chinese” will also affect Australia’s attitude towards China, Taiwan and Hong Kong.

Author/Editorial Sameway

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