Harris in Battle, U.S. Election Uncertainty Continues

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The 2024 U.S. presidential election, which seemed to have been written as a duel between former President Donald Trump and current President Joe Biden, has suddenly been completely rewritten with only three and a half months left before the vote. Biden, who for months believed he was the best candidate to beat Trump on Nov. 5, announced on July 21 that he was withdrawing from the race, and that his vice presidential partner, Kamala Harris, had already clinched the Democratic nomination to take over the election. Now, it seems that the Democrats’ temporary change of command will definitely add more uncertainties to the U.S. election in a hundred days. A change of command before the battle is a rare event for a U.S. president in more than 100 years, and in just over 100 days, it is even rarer. The entire campaign agenda has changed from the original competition between the two presidents, with the addition of age and ability, to a competition between men and women, whites and blacks, and conservatives and liberals, for the acceptance of Americans. It was like the plot of a Hollywood movie, so to speak.

Biden’s withdrawal shakes up the political scene

Since his poor performance in a live television debate with Donald Trump last month, the 81-year-old Biden has faced mounting pressure to withdraw from the race. While Biden’s situation is becoming more and more passive, his rival Trump’s attempted shooting on July 13 has strengthened the confidence of his supporters, making him a strong candidate who will not be surprised by any changes. In the eyes of some, the outcome of the presidential election has already been written. It can be said that Biden’s withdrawal was both expected and unexpected. In announcing his withdrawal from the presidential race, Biden said it was “in the best interest of the Democratic Party and the country” and that he supported the nomination of his deputy, Harris. Biden also said he would remain in office for the final six months of his term. While some have argued that if Biden were to withdraw, he should resign immediately and let Vice President Hershey succeed him, so that he could continue to compete with Trump for the presidency, so far Biden has no intention of resigning, and the focus of the community has shifted to changes in the race, not whether Biden resigns.

Biden’s decision to withdraw from the race has apparently reopened what seemed to be a dominant pattern: Democratic campaign fundraising, which had been sluggish since June 27, came back from the dead with the news that Vice President Harris might take over the race. The campaign raised $46.7 million in just one day, the highest amount ever raised in the 2024 election. Although Harris has not yet been officially named the presumptive new Democratic nominee, it seems logical that Harris, as the current vice president and Biden’s vice presidential partner, would take over the reins of the campaign. She apparently won a lot of support within the Democratic Party in the first hour of Biden’s withdrawal. The Democratic National Convention is scheduled for August 19-22 in Chicago. In less than a week, Democratic leaders, including former President Bill Clinton, Barack Obama, and Speaker Nancy Pelosi, have endorsed Biden, and all potential challengers to Harris have rallied behind her. Harris has shown in this week that she has become the consensus of Democratic leaders, and has removed the hesitancy that was previously associated with Baily’s reelection bid.

The change of command has reunited the Democratic Party, putting weeks of infighting over Biden’s political future behind them, and quickly rallying the most resources behind Harris to defeat Trump with just over 100 days left before Election Day. The Harris campaign has generated so much interest that more than 28,000 new volunteers have signed up since the announcement, a rate more than 100 times the daily average of Biden’s previous campaign, underscoring the enthusiasm for Harris. The past month has proved that the fate of the White House race can change quickly and permanently. Harris has already secured her ticket to the biggest stage in American politics, but now she must prove she can compete.

The future is uncertain

The U.S. ABC News recently released the results of a poll, Vice President Harris’s approval rate rose 8% to 43%, the Republican presidential candidate Trump holding rate fell from 40% to 36%. The poll noted that Harris has an advantage over Trump in terms of how enthusiastic Americans are about Harris as a nominee for the presidential race. 48% of Americans say they would be enthusiastic if Harris were to become the Democratic nominee, while 39% would be enthusiastic about Trump as the Republican nominee. The survey was conducted in English and Spanish among 1,200 adults nationwide and has a margin of error of 3 percentage points. Trump’s team attributed the temporary rise in the polls to the recent media coverage of Harris as the new Democratic nominee, which is likely to continue for a few days or so. However, it has been 10 days since Biden withdrew from the race, and the enthusiasm for Harris has not dropped significantly, suggesting that the Trump team cannot afford to take Harris lightly.

Speaking to campaign workers in Wilmington, Delaware, Harris admitted that the past few weeks have been a “roller coaster”, but expressed confidence in the new campaign team. She then pivoted to the theme of campaigning against Trump over the next 100 days, contrasting her experience as a prosecutor with Trump’s felony convictions and portraying herself as a defender of economic opportunity and abortion rights. At a time of unprecedented turbulence in modern American political history, Kamala Harris is having an unusually good time. Trump’s campaign pollster, Tony Fabrizio, has even called this phenomenon the “Harris honeymoon period” – a combination of positive media coverage and positive energy that has given the Democrat a strong momentum.

As the U.S. presidential election enters its 100-day countdown, the Harris campaign, from the Democratic camp, has been receiving an increasing number of donations in recent days, with the vast majority coming from first-time contributors. The U.S. presidential election has not been a mandatory vote like Australia’s. In the last three elections (2018 and 2022 congressional elections and 2020 presidential election), at most one-third of eligible voters voted, with whites making up the highest percentage. Women, blacks, Latinos and Chinese have consistently voted at lower rates. Harris, on the other hand, is of women, blacks and ethnic minorities (Jamaican and Indian), which makes her and Trump absolutely different from each other in attracting these voters who are traditionally uninterested in elections, and brings different variables to this election. It is widely believed that the race between the two candidates in the U.S. presidential election will be very intense.

However, there is another huge problem for Harris personally, that is, she cannot get rid of the impression that she is Biden’s understudy. Since Harris is running as Biden’s replacement, she will have to align her policies with Biden’s, making it difficult for her to create a fresh and independent image for herself. Coupled with the fact that Harris did not come up with a more appealing policy that demonstrated her independent stance during her tenure as vice president, the outcome of the election will probably still be favorable to Trump. If Harris is elected, she will become the first female president of the United States and the first South Asian president.

Same Country, Different Voters
Australia has mandatory voting, and the influx of immigrants from Asia and other parts of the world over the past three decades has transformed the country into a multicultural nation. It is clear that the traditional support for political alternation between the two major parties, which was based on people’s consideration and choice of two political paths, is no longer the norm. In the past few general elections, only about two-thirds of the electorate voted for the two major parties combined. The two major parties are caught in a dilemma, that is, they are unwilling to risk losing their traditional supporters, and actively reach out to the new multicultural voters to make policy breakthroughs. At the same time, they are unable to devote more resources to winning over ethnic minorities and attracting new immigrants. As a result, independent candidates or a small number of radical political parties have built up space, making it difficult for the winning party to gain an absolute advantage in the legislature.

There is no mandatory voting in the United States, but the election of Hamas seems to have touched a chord in the hearts and minds of those who seem to have a large population in the United States and who have long been apathetic about politics. The large number of first-time donors and volunteers suggests that the mix of voters in this election is likely to be different than in previous ones. And when people’s enthusiasm for political participation is aroused, it doesn’t usually cool off in a short period of time, which means that the United States is about to experience a shift to a different electorate in the same country. For both Democrats and Republicans, this is an agenda that leaders will have to revisit after the election.

The “Two Americas” Debate

With the recent conclusion of the U.S. Republican National Convention, the “Trump-Vance” group on the Republican side of the 2024 U.S. presidential race has been officially named. As the conservative successor to Trump’s MAGA (Make America Great Again) candidate, Vance, who is less than 40 years old and comes out of the Appalachian Mountains, has been pinned with the hope of continuing Trumpism in the post-Trump era. On the Democratic side, Biden has withdrawn from the race and supported the nomination of Vice President Harris, and whichever combination ends up in the race, it represents a very different side of America. This is not only a reflection of the liberal-conservative divide, but also a reflection of racial, religious, cultural, economic, and other differences in identity and direction of the United States.

With the 2024 U.S. presidential election just a hundred days away, the “two Americas” debate is not only the undercurrent of this election, but also the melody of America’s past for more than 200 years, and the competition for a long time to come. On the whole, the difference between conservatives and liberals lies in the relationship between culture and politics. In short, conservatives believe that culture determines the rise and fall of society and the success or failure of politics, while liberals believe that politics can change culture and customs. A “cultural America,” that is, a conservative America that is constantly confronted with the reality of economic and social inequality, believes that the fundamental solution to America’s problems lies in its culture; while a “political America,” that is, a liberal America that never stops realizing the ideals of freedom, equality, democracy, and the rule of law, believes that the solution to America’s dilemma lies in its politics.

As the first black/Indian female presidential candidate in history, the Democratic base, including labor unions, minorities, women’s rights, and young people, quickly took a stand in support of Harris. The Republican Party, which has lost the “old man card,” must also reshape the direction of the race. Somewhat surprisingly, Latinos are the fastest growing segment of eligible voters in the U.S. Historically, this group has traditionally supported the Democrats in presidential elections, but recent polls have shown that more and more Latinos are changing their voting preferences, a trend that poses a huge challenge to Harris, the incumbent vice president who is destined to be the Democratic presidential candidate, and who will have to spend the remaining 100 days fighting against the attraction of Trump’s hard-line border policy to Latinos. She has 100 days left to counter Trump’s appeal to Latinos with his hard-border policies. With just 100 days to go before the U.S. election, Biden’s withdrawal from the race and his full support for Harris, who has been temporarily thrust into the front line, versus Trump, whose popularity has skyrocketed as a result of the shootings, there are still countless unknowns about who will win. This election will be a showdown between the old and the new, the traditional and the innovative, the conservative and the liberal, and the future of this beacon of democracy will take a new direction that has never been seen before.

The Way Forward
The biggest fear of those in the Democratic Party who demanded Biden’s withdrawal was that once Biden withdrew from the election, he would not be able to rally the voters. However, the response of the voters in the past ten days or so has allayed their fears. Obviously, there is a new leader in the Democratic Party. What remains to be seen is whether the concern and support aroused by Ms. Ho Kam Lai can be sustained for a longer period of time, and turn into a new wave of impetus. In order to achieve this, Mario FUJITSU has to put in a lot of resources. The huge donations made in the past 10 days or so seem to have provided the ammunition for the Democratic Party to turn around. If Georgette Hogan’s campaign team can grasp this opportunity, I believe that after the Democratic Party convention in mid-August, the electioneering work will see a new atmosphere.
Perhaps then, we will see a clearer picture of the trend.
Trump’s team seems to have no choice but to make more personal attacks on Georgette in the meantime, in the hope of stopping the situation from getting worse. But until now, it seems that this strategy has not worked, and the picture is not yet clear.