The Second Trump Era Begins in a Big Way

On January 20, Donald Trump was sworn in as the 47th president of the United States. In his inaugural address, he promised to usher in a new “golden age” for the United States, a speech that was both promising and contradictory, highlighting some of the opportunities and challenges that the new president will face in his second term. A series of executive orders were signed immediately after the inauguration. After Trump’s return to power, he led a team with a detailed implementation strategy and an aggressive agenda. His own rhetoric remains as unpredictable as ever, and may represent a new policy or just a temporary distraction. The second Trump era has truly begun.

Trump lays out his vision for a new ‘golden age’

Trump opened his 30-minute speech with the statement “America’s Golden Age is about to begin,” declaring that the administration’s top priority is to create a “proud, prosperous, and free nation. From political reform, economic policy, national security, foreign strategy to social culture, Trump’s inaugural speech outlined a more radical MAGA vision, emphasizing the “restoration of U.S. sovereignty” and the strengthening of the “authority of the executive”. At the center of the new “Golden Age” vision may be a leaner and tougher government, which not only marks the return of Trump’s MAGA political agenda, but also signals a major shift in the direction of U.S. policy.

Since taking office, Trump has issued a series of executive orders. Overall, the executive orders continue Trump’s previous campaign policy ideas. They dealt with immigration, environmental, and diversity initiatives, and kicked off his presidency with a strong use of power, signaling that he was about to make a dramatic reversal of existing policies. The series of executive actions were designed to roll back many of President Biden’s most important domestic policies, primarily in the areas of climate and immigration, as well as to reintroduce Trump’s agenda, which would kick-start drilling and mining for natural resources and fundamentally upend the U.S.’s global role as a refuge for refugees and immigrants.

It is worth noting that on his first day in office, Trump signed an executive order announcing that the U.S. is once again withdrawing from the Paris Climate Accord, reaffirming the current administration’s “America First” policy. The move will see the largest carbon emitter in history pull out of global efforts to combat climate change for the second time in less than a decade. The Paris Agreement was signed in 2015, in which governments agreed to limit global warming to no more than 1.5 degrees Celsius above pre-industrial levels in order to avoid the worst effects of climate change. This decision by the Trump administration will leave the U.S. as one of the few non-signatories to the Paris Agreement in the world, along with countries like Iran, Libya, and Yemen. In addition to withdrawing from the Paris Agreement, Trump has also announced that he is withdrawing again from the WHO, a statement that has significant implications for the organization.

WHO will lose arguably its most important member and by far its largest donor. The U.S. has given $1.284 billion to the WHO between 2022 and 2023, hundreds of millions more than Germany, the second largest donor, and the WHO holds an annual general meeting every five years to discuss the important agenda, member country contributions, and membership applications. Trump has already expressed his displeasure at the fact that the U.S., with a smaller population than China, is responsible for more than twice as much funding. However, more than 80% of WHO’s funding comes from voluntary donations from member countries and charitable organizations. The U.S. is indeed the largest contributor in this area, while China’s contributions are so low that Trump thinks the U.S. is being cheated. It is also true that China and developing countries have often joined forces to promote the WHO’s agenda without taking US interests into account in many of its decisions, which makes assessing the WHO’s “benefits” to the US in terms of “influence” a poor calculation. However, the original purpose of the WHO is to take care of the needs of small countries, is it not the responsibility of big countries to do so? It is only that today China has become a “powerful country”, and has been able to offer all kinds of benefits to the developing countries in the WHO to gain their support, which has led to Trump’s dissatisfaction with the WHO today.

Looking ahead to the next four years, the two withdrawals are likely to be just a prelude, and Trump is likely to withdraw from organizations such as the United Nations Relief and Works Agency for Palestine Refugees in the Near East (UN Relief and Works Agency) and the United Nations Population Fund (UNFPA), etc. After all, Trump has the experience of the past four years, and his withdrawal from the group will be more targeted. At the same time, the international organizations in which the U.S. has little interest even if it does not withdraw from them for the time being will probably “switch”, i.e., shift their center of gravity to another group, so that the so-called big group will be hollowed out.

Opportunity for China’s “rise” to the top

The new U.S. administration has reiterated its intention to build a prosperous economy with “America First”, and the contours of the “New Economics 2.0” have emerged. For Trump’s old rival China, from the time he officially won the election to his inauguration, he has been making intensive use of the previous 3-month transition period to cope with the situation. Since the end of September and the beginning of October last year, China has been launching a series of policies to expand domestic demand and stimulate the economy, as well as allowing the Renminbi to depreciate sharply to stabilize trade and stockpile gold. In addition, China is moving closer to and improving relations with Japan, and is no longer at loggerheads with India and Australia. It is clear that Beijing’s strategy is to get closer to the three members of the Quadrilateral Security Dialogue between the US, Japan, India and Australia. But from a strategic perspective, these countries will not suddenly fall into the Chinese camp with the arrival of Donald Trump, and their alliance is unlikely to be weakened.

The newly appointed U.S. Secretary of State, Marco Rubio, even held his first call with Chinese Foreign Minister Wang Yi, a member of the Political Bureau of the Central Committee of the Communist Party of China (CPC), in a “direct ball game” on Friday, emphasizing that the U.S. has “serious concerns” about China’s coercive actions against Taiwan, while Wang stressed China’s principled stance on Taiwan and asked the U.S. side to “deal with it with caution”. Obviously, this is the first step in the U.S.-China exchange, where both sides are exploring each other’s bottom line and drawing out each other’s red lines first. The reality is that despite Taiwan President Lai Ching-te’s recent trip, which included a visit to the U.S., the situation in the Taiwan Strait has calmed down a bit compared to the past.

As Trump announces plans to withdraw from various international organizations and agreements, China, on the other hand, may gradually position itself as a global leader and seize the opportunity to fill the void left by the United States on the world stage. Trump’s “withdrawal” puts into question the future of global public health responses and climate goals, but also leaves a leadership vacuum that China may try to fill. Chinese President Xi Jinping and Russian President Vladimir Putin emphasized their continued alliance in a video call hours after Trump’s inauguration. Meanwhile, Chinese Vice Premier Ding Xuexiang emphasized China’s commitment to tackling climate change at the annual meeting of the World Economic Forum in Davos, Switzerland, on Tuesday, saying that “China has always been a staunch supporter of genuine multilateralism”.

China cut import tariffs on hundreds of goods this month as Trump threatened to impose higher tariffs on China, Canada and Mexico, among others. Regardless of the motivation, other countries may be strengthening their ties with China while the US is distancing itself. After all, U.S. isolationism means that other countries will have to choose between alliances with the U.S. or some multi-polar option – which could include the BRICS countries, of which China and Russia are both members. The role of the United States and China in the international community over the next four years is not yet clear.

Domestic and Diplomatic Tensions

On his first day in office, Trump signed an executive order imposing a 25% tariff on Canada and Mexico, had a heated discussion with the Danish Prime Minister about Greenland’s sovereignty, and immediately threatened the President of Colombia over the deportation of illegal immigrants, etc., which shows that the US, along with other countries, will be forced by Trump to pursue a domestic policy that Trump believes is necessary to make the US strong again, and which will inevitably bring about conflicts in the US’s relations with other countries. Trump has also made it clear that he does not take these diplomatic relations seriously, and I believe that this will soon bring about a drastic and rapid change in global political and economic cooperation.

It is safe to say that the world will soon be in a position to reposition itself.

Avoiding a full-blown global conflict

As Trump promised during his campaign, if he wins the election, he will not send Americans to fight abroad and will do his utmost to avoid the outbreak of World War III. In the early days of his presidency, Trump has issued a series of executive decrees to overthrow his predecessor on the domestic front, and he has also been vocal on the diplomatic front.

A few days ago, Trump has issued a warning that he will impose high tariffs and further sanctions on Russia if Vladimir Putin does not end the war in Ukraine. He wrote on his social media platform, Truth Social, that by pushing for a resolution to the war he was doing Russia and its president a ‘very big favor’. Trump has previously said he would reach a solution to the issue of a full-scale invasion by Russia in February 2022 within a day. Russia has not yet responded to those comments, but recently senior Russian officials said there was little chance Moscow would deal with the new U.S. administration. Trump has also hinted that he is prepared to join forces with China to end Russia’s war on Ukraine as a way to increase pressure on Russian President Vladimir Putin to negotiate a truce. Weeks before Putin’s 2022 invasion of Ukraine, the two leaders declared that there was no ceiling on Sino-Russian friendship, with China serving as Moscow’s diplomatic and economic lifeline in the wake of sweeping sanctions against Russia imposed by the United States and its allies.

On Israel’s Gaza war, which has been going on for more than a year, Trump described the Gaza Strip as a “demolition site” after Israel’s war with Hamas. He said he was considering proposing a ‘Gaza clean-up plan’, calling on Egypt and Jordan to take in Palestinians from Gaza and allow Palestinians to ‘live a quiet life’ in order to realize peace in the Middle East. But the proposal has been rejected by Hamas, the Palestinian militant organization that controls the Gaza Strip. Israel denies any plans to force Gazans to move, but some far-right members of the Israeli government openly support a mass exodus of Gazans from Palestinian territory. A week ago, a ceasefire agreement was reached, which led to the release of some Israeli hostages by Hamas in exchange for Israel’s release of imprisoned Palestinian prisoners.

As a result of Trump’s isolationist approach, attitudes towards American power and its global role have changed: The United States is no longer seen as a global defender of its values and as a defender of the liberal international order. The fact that Trump did not mention allies or friends in his inaugural speech shows that he still prioritizes domestic affairs. He has made it clear on several occasions that he wants Europe to spend more on defense, and the threat of tariffs adds more uncertainty to the transatlantic relationship, but it could also be an impetus for positive change. Over the next four years, perhaps the United States will join other powers in a multipolar world, each taking responsibility for its own interests and seeking to build new relationships in a more transactional world for long-term peace and development.

Editorial Department, Sameway Magazine

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