The Eve of the Federal Election is a Delicate One

This is an election year in Australia. April 12, the date previously recognized by the outside world, is no longer likely to be the date of the election. With at least 33 days between the announcement of the election and the official vote, there are only three possible election dates left: May 3rd, May 10th and May 17th. The general election must be held no later than May 17, and the campaign must last at least 33 days. To vote on May 3, Albanese must announce the election no later than Monday, March 31; to vote on May 10, he must announce it no later than Monday, April 7. By convention, Election Day is usually announced on a Sunday. If the election is not announced by April 7, then May 17 will be the only election date. As the federal election draws nearer, the latest opinion polls show Labor narrowly ahead of the Coalition.

Election is approaching and the race is tight

The latest YouGov poll shows that Labor and the Coalition are now tied, and the election has officially entered the heat of battle. Just two weeks ago, Labor was narrowly ahead of the Coalition 51% to 49%, thanks to Prime Minister Albanese’s response to Tropical Storm Alfred and the government’s support for Ukraine. But now, the situation has been completely leveled. In terms of the first-past-the-post vote, Labor’s support remains unchanged at 31%, while the Coalition’s support has risen by 1 percentage point to 37%, which is growing steadily. However, on the question of “who is more suitable to be the Prime Minister”, Albanese is still ahead of Dutton, at 45% to 40%, but Dutton has overtaken him in terms of voter satisfaction. As for the other minor parties, first-party support for the Greens and One Nation have both dropped by half a point to 13% and 7% respectively, while the independents have also dropped by one point to 8%.

Previously it was significant increases in support for the Albanese government in Queensland, Victoria, South Australia and Tasmania that tilted the overall result in Labor’s favor, giving it a narrow advantage. This advantage did not last long. Meanwhile, the Roy Morgan poll also suggests that the election may be a hung parliament, with the winner needing the support of smaller parties and independents to form a government, as the two parties are so close in support. Leader of the Opposition Peter Dutton has said that if Labor were to go into government as a minority party, it would increase inflation through higher taxes and spending. Dutton has emphasized throughout the election that under a Labor government, Australia’s inflation rate has been consistently higher than in most major developed economies, that household and small business budgets have been squeezed to the limit, and that the Coalition would aim to repair the damage done to the Australian economy by the Labor government in Albania, where living standards have suffered the worst of the developed world under Labor. Under Labor, Australia’s living standards have suffered the biggest decline of any developed country. Albanese responded that inflation was falling.

The poll was conducted between March 14 and 19, with 1,500 voters participating, and has a margin of error of 3.4%. It comes as Labor prepares to deliver its fourth federal budget next Tuesday, which suggests it will run a deficit after consecutive surpluses. The fiscal outlook had prompted many to predict the government would call a general election before the budget, but the onset of Storm Alfred forced Albanese to postpone plans to call an early election. Under Australia’s constitution, a federal election must be held on or before May 17, and Albanese is expected to announce a date within days of the budget.

Struggle for a middle-of-the-road vote

The Australian Financial Review has summarized the results of the last three polls to show that the Coalition has made significant progress in Victoria since the last election, but will need to increase its support in NSW and WA if it is to have a chance of forming a government after the next election. Figures show that in the key state of Victoria, policing is approaching the importance of housing as one of the most important issues for voters, second only to cost of living pressures. For the Coalition, Victoria is the most promising place to grab seats. The Coalition currently holds only 10 of Victoria’s 39 seats, and the Labor government’s declining popularity in recent years has given the Coalition a chance. It is only in the past month that the Coalition’s upward momentum has stalled. The reasons for this include a series of blunders by Mr. Dutton, the government’s new policies, and growing unease within the Coalition.

Albanese and Dutton’s joint appearances at three events over three consecutive weekends over the Lunar New Year period underscored their campaign to win over Australia’s Chinese voters, a key group that could play a significant role in the upcoming federal election. There are many reasons why former Prime Minister Morrison and his Coalition Party were ousted three years ago. One of them, rightly or wrongly, was the perception that the Alliance Party was anti-China. The Liberal Party’s analysis of the defeat found that in constituencies with a high concentration of Chinese voters, the swing away from the Liberal Party to other parties was significantly greater. This analysis found that in the 15 electorates with the highest number of Chinese-Australian voters, the swing in support between the two parties was 6.6%, compared to a 3.7% swing in other seats. The Liberal Party’s election analysis suggests that the party needs to prioritize rebuilding relationships with members of the Chinese Australian community. It’s no wonder that both parties are using festivals and celebrations to sway the Chinese vote, and even the popular Chinese social media platform Little Red Book has become a platform for politicians from both parties.

Of course, Chinese social media platforms prohibit political advertisements, but Little Red Book’s algorithm allows politicians to target users in a geographic area with messages that are seldom extremely pro-party. Australian politicians rarely talk about Australia-China relations on the Little Red Book. They celebrate Chinese New Year, engage with the Chinese immigrant community, and sometimes attend community events, but they hardly ever talk about Australia-China relations. Even if they do post relevant information, it’s unlikely to spread very far because politicians’ accounts have recently been secretly blocked. While the MPs’ accounts are still visible to existing followers, new users seem unable to find them. This means that interactions with users and the growth of fans of politicians across the political spectrum on the platform are at a standstill. How this ultimately affects the outcome of the election can only be inferred from the results.

Variables remain

The economic pressures of the last two years have wiped out the accumulated wealth of millions of Australians, particularly in outer-city and remote electorates. A single interest rate cut may boost Labor’s morale, but it’s unlikely to ease the deep economic pain experienced by voters who will decide the election. For decades, pollsters around the world have used the question “is the country heading in the right or wrong direction” to measure voter attitudes to change. As the Australian federal election approaches, pessimism among Australian voters is on the rise.

Overall, Labor supporters are more optimistic than the rest of the electorate, with 56% saying the country is heading in the right direction, compared to 18% of Greens and 14% of Coalition voters. Not only is pessimism deepening among the elderly, but dissatisfaction is also spreading among the young people Labor is trying to win over. Regardless of who is in power, this is not a mess that any professional politician would be willing to take on.

As Cyclone Alfred moved towards Queensland, Albanese abandoned his campaign for the April 12 election. The postponement of the election has hampered the Coalition’s momentum in the same way that a delayed battle affects a soldier’s morale and motivation – it’s all over again. The 30-day campaign was ready to go, every moment carefully planned, the Coalition candidates with their propaganda policies in place, and the ammunition to crush the Labor or Blue-Green candidates. But at the moment, Dutton’s team is at a standstill, unsure of where to point their sights. By contrast, the current government still has all the major levers. In addition to the internal concerns, the two parties are now facing an even bigger variable in the international community – the geopolitical turmoil and great uncertainty caused by the U.S. government’s frequent punches since Trump took office in January of this year. Trump is dismantling the alliances that have kept the peace and safeguarded Western freedoms. This represents a major challenge for Albanese and Dutton.

Today, Australian voters are increasingly anxious, both because of the cost of living and because of ‘Trump anxiety’ and global turbulence. Over the past few years, Australians have been pressured by economic uncertainty, and now even their long-dependent US ally is no longer stable. This will have a direct impact on public attitudes towards defense spending, as well as the most practical questions: will it affect jobs? Will it drive up prices? All of this adds to social anxiety. Ultimately, the person who responds most effectively to these compounded anxieties is the one most likely to win the next federal election. For both Albanese and Dutton, how they balance the need to preserve Australia’s sovereignty and independence with the need to maximize the US-Australia alliance will undoubtedly play an important role in determining the winner of this election.

Federal budget proposes tax cuts to win re-election

On March 25th, the Treasurer delivered his fourth budget in office, and one of the most surprising, but not surprising, features was the tax cuts he introduced, which will reduce income tax by $17 billion over the next year, or an average of $5 less per week per taxpayer. Treasurer Jim Chalmers said that although this would leave a $47 billion shortfall in the budget and push Australia’s external debt to $789 billion by 2028-29, it was the government’s determination to ride out the rising cost of living with its citizens. The Coalition is in a dilemma as it disagrees with the tax cut proposal, but it cannot promise that it will not propose tax cuts at the election. The Labor Party’s move to reduce tax is only a symbolic way to reduce the burden of Australians, but it does not actually solve the problem. However, it is believed that it will generally gain the support of the public, and increase their support in the election. If the Liberal Party is adamantly against it, it will be ignoring the people’s suffering. However, it is not easy to put forward a proposal that can specifically solve the problems faced by the low-income group, and it will not be able to take care of the dissatisfaction of the whole nation.

However, the Budget’s optimistic and positive outlook on the world economy may not be able to convince the majority of Australians. If the opposition party wants to continue to reduce its support to the government, it is believed that it will continue to sell the instability in the world, and only the Coalition party can have a strong leadership to lead Australians to face the crisis.

Obviously, the Labor government will be pushing for the budget to be passed by the parliament, implementing the policies that have been put forward in the past few months, and speeding up the process in the hope of getting a mandate from the voters, and at least three more years in power. It is believed that whether the Labor Party can make progress or not will be known in the coming one or two weeks when the budget is debated in the parliament.

Article/Editorial Sameway Magazine

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