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The Eve of the Federal Election is a Delicate One

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This is an election year in Australia. April 12, the date previously recognized by the outside world, is no longer likely to be the date of the election. With at least 33 days between the announcement of the election and the official vote, there are only three possible election dates left: May 3rd, May 10th and May 17th. The general election must be held no later than May 17, and the campaign must last at least 33 days. To vote on May 3, Albanese must announce the election no later than Monday, March 31; to vote on May 10, he must announce it no later than Monday, April 7. By convention, Election Day is usually announced on a Sunday. If the election is not announced by April 7, then May 17 will be the only election date. As the federal election draws nearer, the latest opinion polls show Labor narrowly ahead of the Coalition.

 

Election is approaching and the race is tight

The latest YouGov poll shows that Labor and the Coalition are now tied, and the election has officially entered the heat of battle. Just two weeks ago, Labor was narrowly ahead of the Coalition 51% to 49%, thanks to Prime Minister Albanese’s response to Tropical Storm Alfred and the government’s support for Ukraine. But now, the situation has been completely leveled. In terms of the first-past-the-post vote, Labor’s support remains unchanged at 31%, while the Coalition’s support has risen by 1 percentage point to 37%, which is growing steadily. However, on the question of “who is more suitable to be the Prime Minister”, Albanese is still ahead of Dutton, at 45% to 40%, but Dutton has overtaken him in terms of voter satisfaction. As for the other minor parties, first-party support for the Greens and One Nation have both dropped by half a point to 13% and 7% respectively, while the independents have also dropped by one point to 8%.

Previously it was significant increases in support for the Albanese government in Queensland, Victoria, South Australia and Tasmania that tilted the overall result in Labor’s favor, giving it a narrow advantage. This advantage did not last long. Meanwhile, the Roy Morgan poll also suggests that the election may be a hung parliament, with the winner needing the support of smaller parties and independents to form a government, as the two parties are so close in support. Leader of the Opposition Peter Dutton has said that if Labor were to go into government as a minority party, it would increase inflation through higher taxes and spending. Dutton has emphasized throughout the election that under a Labor government, Australia’s inflation rate has been consistently higher than in most major developed economies, that household and small business budgets have been squeezed to the limit, and that the Coalition would aim to repair the damage done to the Australian economy by the Labor government in Albania, where living standards have suffered the worst of the developed world under Labor. Under Labor, Australia’s living standards have suffered the biggest decline of any developed country. Albanese responded that inflation was falling.

The poll was conducted between March 14 and 19, with 1,500 voters participating, and has a margin of error of 3.4%. It comes as Labor prepares to deliver its fourth federal budget next Tuesday, which suggests it will run a deficit after consecutive surpluses. The fiscal outlook had prompted many to predict the government would call a general election before the budget, but the onset of Storm Alfred forced Albanese to postpone plans to call an early election. Under Australia’s constitution, a federal election must be held on or before May 17, and Albanese is expected to announce a date within days of the budget.

Struggle for a middle-of-the-road vote

The Australian Financial Review has summarized the results of the last three polls to show that the Coalition has made significant progress in Victoria since the last election, but will need to increase its support in NSW and WA if it is to have a chance of forming a government after the next election. Figures show that in the key state of Victoria, policing is approaching the importance of housing as one of the most important issues for voters, second only to cost of living pressures. For the Coalition, Victoria is the most promising place to grab seats. The Coalition currently holds only 10 of Victoria’s 39 seats, and the Labor government’s declining popularity in recent years has given the Coalition a chance. It is only in the past month that the Coalition’s upward momentum has stalled. The reasons for this include a series of blunders by Mr. Dutton, the government’s new policies, and growing unease within the Coalition.

Albanese and Dutton’s joint appearances at three events over three consecutive weekends over the Lunar New Year period underscored their campaign to win over Australia’s Chinese voters, a key group that could play a significant role in the upcoming federal election. There are many reasons why former Prime Minister Morrison and his Coalition Party were ousted three years ago. One of them, rightly or wrongly, was the perception that the Alliance Party was anti-China. The Liberal Party’s analysis of the defeat found that in constituencies with a high concentration of Chinese voters, the swing away from the Liberal Party to other parties was significantly greater. This analysis found that in the 15 electorates with the highest number of Chinese-Australian voters, the swing in support between the two parties was 6.6%, compared to a 3.7% swing in other seats. The Liberal Party’s election analysis suggests that the party needs to prioritize rebuilding relationships with members of the Chinese Australian community. It’s no wonder that both parties are using festivals and celebrations to sway the Chinese vote, and even the popular Chinese social media platform Little Red Book has become a platform for politicians from both parties.

Of course, Chinese social media platforms prohibit political advertisements, but Little Red Book’s algorithm allows politicians to target users in a geographic area with messages that are seldom extremely pro-party. Australian politicians rarely talk about Australia-China relations on the Little Red Book. They celebrate Chinese New Year, engage with the Chinese immigrant community, and sometimes attend community events, but they hardly ever talk about Australia-China relations. Even if they do post relevant information, it’s unlikely to spread very far because politicians’ accounts have recently been secretly blocked. While the MPs’ accounts are still visible to existing followers, new users seem unable to find them. This means that interactions with users and the growth of fans of politicians across the political spectrum on the platform are at a standstill. How this ultimately affects the outcome of the election can only be inferred from the results.

 

Variables remain

The economic pressures of the last two years have wiped out the accumulated wealth of millions of Australians, particularly in outer-city and remote electorates. A single interest rate cut may boost Labor’s morale, but it’s unlikely to ease the deep economic pain experienced by voters who will decide the election. For decades, pollsters around the world have used the question “is the country heading in the right or wrong direction” to measure voter attitudes to change. As the Australian federal election approaches, pessimism among Australian voters is on the rise.

Overall, Labor supporters are more optimistic than the rest of the electorate, with 56% saying the country is heading in the right direction, compared to 18% of Greens and 14% of Coalition voters. Not only is pessimism deepening among the elderly, but dissatisfaction is also spreading among the young people Labor is trying to win over. Regardless of who is in power, this is not a mess that any professional politician would be willing to take on.

As Cyclone Alfred moved towards Queensland, Albanese abandoned his campaign for the April 12 election. The postponement of the election has hampered the Coalition’s momentum in the same way that a delayed battle affects a soldier’s morale and motivation – it’s all over again. The 30-day campaign was ready to go, every moment carefully planned, the Coalition candidates with their propaganda policies in place, and the ammunition to crush the Labor or Blue-Green candidates. But at the moment, Dutton’s team is at a standstill, unsure of where to point their sights. By contrast, the current government still has all the major levers. In addition to the internal concerns, the two parties are now facing an even bigger variable in the international community – the geopolitical turmoil and great uncertainty caused by the U.S. government’s frequent punches since Trump took office in January of this year. Trump is dismantling the alliances that have kept the peace and safeguarded Western freedoms. This represents a major challenge for Albanese and Dutton.

Today, Australian voters are increasingly anxious, both because of the cost of living and because of ‘Trump anxiety’ and global turbulence. Over the past few years, Australians have been pressured by economic uncertainty, and now even their long-dependent US ally is no longer stable. This will have a direct impact on public attitudes towards defense spending, as well as the most practical questions: will it affect jobs? Will it drive up prices? All of this adds to social anxiety. Ultimately, the person who responds most effectively to these compounded anxieties is the one most likely to win the next federal election. For both Albanese and Dutton, how they balance the need to preserve Australia’s sovereignty and independence with the need to maximize the US-Australia alliance will undoubtedly play an important role in determining the winner of this election.

 

Federal budget proposes tax cuts to win re-election

On March 25th, the Treasurer delivered his fourth budget in office, and one of the most surprising, but not surprising, features was the tax cuts he introduced, which will reduce income tax by $17 billion over the next year, or an average of $5 less per week per taxpayer. Treasurer Jim Chalmers said that although this would leave a $47 billion shortfall in the budget and push Australia’s external debt to $789 billion by 2028-29, it was the government’s determination to ride out the rising cost of living with its citizens. The Coalition is in a dilemma as it disagrees with the tax cut proposal, but it cannot promise that it will not propose tax cuts at the election. The Labor Party’s move to reduce tax is only a symbolic way to reduce the burden of Australians, but it does not actually solve the problem. However, it is believed that it will generally gain the support of the public, and increase their support in the election. If the Liberal Party is adamantly against it, it will be ignoring the people’s suffering. However, it is not easy to put forward a proposal that can specifically solve the problems faced by the low-income group, and it will not be able to take care of the dissatisfaction of the whole nation.

However, the Budget’s optimistic and positive outlook on the world economy may not be able to convince the majority of Australians. If the opposition party wants to continue to reduce its support to the government, it is believed that it will continue to sell the instability in the world, and only the Coalition party can have a strong leadership to lead Australians to face the crisis.

Obviously, the Labor government will be pushing for the budget to be passed by the parliament, implementing the policies that have been put forward in the past few months, and speeding up the process in the hope of getting a mandate from the voters, and at least three more years in power. It is believed that whether the Labor Party can make progress or not will be known in the coming one or two weeks when the budget is debated in the parliament.

 

Article/Editorial Sameway Magazine

Photo/Internet

 

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Walking with the Solitary (1): The Lonely People

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Raymond Chow

My New Challenge

Over the past few decades, I’ve written numerous books and articles on a wide variety of topics. However, last October, I decided to write a book entirely different from anything I had done before, titled Solitary but Not Isolated. I chose to publish it through crowdfunding. Readers interested in supporting this book can visit the following webpage to learn more and help make it a reality.

I attended a rooftop school in Hong Kong for primary education (a unique feature of Hong Kong in the 1960s: temporary classrooms built on top of apartment blocks in resettlement areas to accommodate children who had moved into the district). Resources were extremely limited. In sixth grade, the school principal gave me and seven other students the opportunity to post our writings on the bulletin board every two weeks for the whole school to read. This was my first experience of writing for a public audience.

In secondary school at Queen’s College, the school published the annual magazine The Yellow Dragon, the earliest and longest-running secondary school annual in Hong Kong. My writings were never published there, though my photos occasionally appeared in reports of school activities. At university, I volunteered as editor for a scholarly publication by the Science Society called Exploration, but after two or three years it was discontinued as no one wished to continue it.

During university, I studied mathematics, which required little essay writing—mostly problem-solving. After entering the field of education, I wrote numerous articles on Hong Kong education that were published in newspaper columns. Later, through curriculum development and teacher training in Hong Kong, I had the rare opportunity to write and publish mathematics textbooks spanning from Grade 1 to Form 7—something unprecedented in Hong Kong.

After moving to Australia, I served as editor of the Christian publication Living Monthly, and eventually founded Sameway magazine, which continues today. From the first issue, I wrote the opening column Words of Sameway, and over 21 years, I have written a total of 745 pieces—a record of my life.

Yet writing Solitary but Not Isolated is something I never anticipated doing since I first learned about autism decades ago. Publishing this book is closely connected to my work with Sameway. I can only say this is a new challenge given by God, a chance to take Sameway to a new stage.

Those Who Love Solitude

Solitary but Not Isolated tells the story of a person with autism. Based on her experiences, the Happy Hands Organization has developed a bilingual training program to help autistic individuals transition from school to the workplace. Launched this year, the program aims to support others in similar circumstances.

Most people with autism do not actively seek social interactions. When they do engage with strangers, they may appear difficult to connect with or communicate with, often leading to social neglect or isolation. For parents and family, this creates a lifelong burden. Even those who complete secondary or tertiary education, despite having professional knowledge, often cannot fully utilize their abilities at work because of incomplete social understanding and lack of basic communication skills. Consequently, they are frequently relegated to jobs that do not match their abilities or are assigned work requiring minimal interaction.

Western society’s understanding of autism began with the lifestyle demands of modern life, emphasizing early social engagement and learning in school. Families, having fewer children, often pay close attention to each child’s development and have higher expectations. Over the decades, understanding of autism has evolved—from viewing it as a mental illness to recognizing it as a deviation from typical personality development. Yet how society should assist their growth remains uncertain.

Decades ago, Western focus was on “treating” autism. Research into genetic, environmental, or physical causes has made limited progress. Interventions to change solitary behaviors are also limited—for example, providing speech therapy in childhood or occupational therapy for daily living skills offers only partial support. While societal acceptance and support for autistic individuals have greatly increased, parents feel that more is needed when their children enter adult life and the workforce.

In short, those inclined toward solitude still face a gap in having equal opportunities to thrive socially and professionally.

Understanding Society and the World

Many autistic individuals focus intensely on specific interests, with little experience in social relationships or current events. As adults, this often leads others to perceive them as unaware of society, or even “odd.” In workplaces, where collaboration is essential, they may face exclusion. Many end up in solitary work with minimal social interaction.

Among Chinese communities, first- or second-generation immigrants with autism often face compounded challenges due to limited knowledge of society. Parents, unfamiliar with Australian systems, cannot fully guide their children, and these high-ability individuals rarely integrate with society, limiting opportunities to demonstrate their potential.

In 2024, ABC launched The Assembly, a TV interview program where host Leigh Sales trained 15 autistic individuals to conduct interviews and produce the show. Participants significantly increased their understanding of society and the world, and their communication and social skills improved greatly.

Last year, Sameway had the opportunity to train a bilingual autistic new immigrant, successfully helping her become a magazine editor. Meanwhile, the Happy Hands Organization developed a workplace adaptation program for bilingual, high-functioning autistic individuals. Through four to six months of training, this program offers these often-overlooked individuals a chance to adapt and develop in Australia.

Thus, Sameway is not only an information platform supporting immigrant communities but also provides a development space and opportunities for those with special needs. Readers interested can contact our magazine or the Happy Hands Organization for details.

The Loneliness of Immigrants

Many immigrants arrive in Australia as adults. They often lack opportunities to understand society deeply and, due to work and life commitments, rarely have the time to engage fully with their new environment or develop close relationships with Australians. Consequently, most live within Chinese communities with similar backgrounds. Passive personalities or limited social skills often lead to intense feelings of loneliness.

Leaving their original home and social networks creates a sense of marginalization similar to that experienced by some autistic individuals. Many immigrants are willing to understand and engage with their new society but face personal limitations and a lack of proactive governmental support, leaving them unable to integrate fully into Australian life.

Chinese immigrants, in particular, may rely heavily on long-term Chinese social media and information platforms, further isolating them from the broader society. This social isolation significantly affects their participation and engagement in Australian life.

The goal of Sameway is to assist immigrants in integrating into Australia, fostering participation and engagement in society. We hope that with continued support, we can go further and achieve more.

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Walk With the Needy

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During the Christmas and New Year period, “Sameway” relocated though only to a spot less than 100 meters across from their original office. It was a tiring task, but we have finally settled in, allowing us to take a longer break during the holiday.

However, the world still undergoes significant changes. The President of Venezuela has been forcibly taken to New York for trial, while the new leader of Venezuela is willing to govern in line with U.S. interests. The longstanding alliance between Europe and the U.S. has become history in light of the U.S. attempt to purchase Greenland. The “Board of Peace” established by Trump requests that nations place the keeping of global peace in his personal hands, but attendees at the invitation include authoritarian dictators who have initiated wars multiple times. The generation that has grown up advocating for global integration, respect for human rights, and peaceful coexistence is now at a lost and confused. Will the world revert to a chaotic state governed by the law of the jungle, where strong countries dominate weaker ones, or can humanity choose to move forward in civilization by learning mistakes from history? We truly have no sure answer.

However, it is a time where the rise of Trump and the increasing power of global far-right political forces, coupled with the internet and social media replacing traditional media as the main source of information for many people. This has led to a society overwhelmed with information and challenges in distinguishing truth from falsehood, which is equally as frightening as an era where information is blocked, preventing access to necessary knowledge.

In Australia, as a multicultural country, immigrants face significant difficulties in obtaining lifestyle information through mainstream media. I believe that to build Australia as a harmonious and cohesive society, the government must invest substantial resources to assist immigrant communities to establish high-quality and credible multicultural media, and to accelerate the integration of first-generation immigrants into society, allowing them to become a driving force in social development.

In the past year, we have strengthened the current affairs information provided on our website. In the coming year, we will focus on enhancing our information services for the Chinese community through our broadcasts and magazine publications. I hope you can support us in achieving the goal of promoting the development of the Chinese immigrant community.

Starting this year, in line with the REJOICE’s initiative for bilingual new immigrants with autism, I will be writing a brand-new column to explore this topic with the community as they navigate With the NDIS program. I hope this innovative program by the REJOICE will receive your support for promotion and development within the community.

Additionally, after three years of training aimed at encouraging seniors to use social platforms to expand their community engagement, we will take a further step this year by launching training courses to assist seniors in using artificial intelligence. Our goal is to help Chinese seniors in Australia stay up-to-date and enjoy a higher quality of life brought about by AI.

In the new year, let us work together to build a stronger local Chinese community.

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Entering Trump 2.0’s New World

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Since January 20, 2025, when Trump assumed the U.S. presidency once again, domestic issues in America have been frequent and complex, but the world cannot deny that his foreign policy has reshaped the global political landscape, ushering in a new era.

Over the past year, Trump has been extremely proactive in foreign affairs—from Greenland to Venezuela—demonstrating relentless ambition to expand U.S. influence abroad, even amid controversy and the risk of destabilizing other nations.

Prelude to 2025

Let’s briefly review Trump’s major foreign policy actions in 2025.

First, his involvement in the Gaza Strip cannot be overlooked. In February 2025, he publicly stated that the U.S. would play a more active, even leading, role in the region, supporting Israel’s security needs, including strengthening border defense and intelligence sharing. He also attempted to broker ceasefire talks in the U.S.’s name, coordinating Egypt, Qatar, and other countries as intermediaries. By October, Trump personally attended a multilateral meeting in Sharm El-Sheikh, pushing for a ceasefire agreement and reconstruction framework between Israel and Hamas.

While opinions on his approach were divided, with some critics arguing that direct intervention could heighten regional tensions, Trump nonetheless reaffirmed America’s influence and presence in Middle Eastern affairs.

Early in 2025, the Trump administration reviewed all foreign aid and temporarily halted military assistance to Ukraine, using it as leverage to push forward negotiations. By mid-March, following U.S.–Ukraine consultations, military and security support resumed, including air defense systems, drone technology, and financial assistance. The U.S. also advocated international sanctions against Russia, such as high-tech export restrictions and asset freezes. These actions demonstrated Trump’s support for strategic allies and further solidified U.S. influence in Europe.

While these events may seem unrelated, they set the stage for early 2026’s diplomatic developments.

The Venezuela Raid

Trump’s most notable action in January 2026 was the sudden capture (or abduction) of Venezuelan President Nicolás Maduro and his wife.

In fact, as early as December 1, 2025, Trump had called Maduro, demanding he step down. When Maduro refused, Trump publicly ramped up pressure in mid-to-late December, applying economic and military pressure—including blockades, intercepting suspicious ships, and bolstering military deployments—to isolate the Maduro government. He even hinted that further U.S. action might follow if Maduro continued to resist, signaling a preemptive warning.

The result: U.S. forces launched a large-scale operation codenamed “Absolute Determination”, storming Caracas, capturing Maduro and his wife, and transporting them to New York for trial. The justification cited Maduro and his inner circle’s involvement in drug trafficking and terrorism, including conspiracies to smuggle cocaine into the U.S. At the same time, Maduro’s government had close ties with China and Russia, who provided military and economic support, posing a threat to U.S. influence in the Western Hemisphere.

The operation was also seen as a move to block rival powers from gaining leverage in Venezuela. More importantly, given Venezuela’s vast oil reserves, Trump clearly aimed to reassert U.S. dominance in the hemisphere and secure economic benefits. For many Americans, the raid showcased U.S. military might, boosting Trump’s prestige and approval. True to form, Trump paid little attention to criticism, focusing instead on praise, and was visibly self-satisfied.

International reactions were strong. China and Russia immediately condemned the U.S. action, calling it a severe violation of Venezuelan sovereignty and international law. Iran and other nations with tense U.S. relations also criticized the operation as unilateralism under the guise of anti-drug and anti-terrorism efforts, destabilizing the region.

European responses were mixed. Some EU countries long critical of Maduro still expressed reservations about the U.S. bypassing international authorization for direct military action, emphasizing that even dealing with authoritarian regimes should follow international mechanisms. This tension revealed the strain Trump’s style places on traditional allies.

In Latin America, reactions were split: anti-Maduro governments and Venezuelan opposition privately supported the move as a chance to break political deadlock, while others feared overt U.S. military intervention might revive Cold War-era “Monroe Doctrine” fears, worsening regional security.

Currently, former Vice President Rodríguez serves as interim president of Venezuela, cooperating with the U.S. while maintaining loyalty to the domestic ruling class, keeping the country relatively stable. For Trump, the goal of preventing other powers from gaining influence in the Americas and securing economic gains was achieved. Many Americans saw the raid as a demonstration of military strength, reinforcing Trump’s image as a decisive leader.

Trump’s Greenland Gambit

Since 2025, Trump has repeatedly brought Greenland into the spotlight, making it one of the most challenging and controversial topics of his second term.

Greenland, the world’s largest island, is under Danish sovereignty but enjoys local autonomy. Its location between North America and Europe along the Arctic shipping route has made it strategically valuable. Previously overlooked due to extreme cold, climate change and melting ice have expanded Arctic navigation, increasing Greenland’s military and technological importance. The island also contains vast deposits of rare earth and critical minerals, essential for modern technology and defense systems.

Trump’s assertive approach clearly aimed to maximize U.S. influence over Greenland. In 2025, he publicly expressed interest in buying Greenland and urged negotiations to secure it, even hinting at military options. This escalated tensions with Denmark and Europe.

European reactions were unanimous: Greenlandic leaders stated the island is “not for sale”, and massive protests erupted in Greenland and Denmark. The UK prime minister warned Trump that high tariffs or aggression would be a grave mistake, while EU countries—including Denmark, France, Germany, and the UK—supported Danish sovereignty. Even European far-right parties, traditionally aligned with Trump, criticized his Greenland strategy as overt aggression, causing internal rifts.

At the 2026 Davos World Economic Forum, Trump and NATO Secretary-General Rutte reached a “preliminary framework” focusing on Arctic security cooperation rather than territorial control. Trump framed it as safeguarding U.S. military bases and economic interests, while Denmark retained final authority. However, Greenland’s government stressed it was not fully involved in negotiations, highlighting an ongoing tension. Analysts debate whether this is a tactical retreat or pragmatic compromise.

Even with the temporary easing of tensions, U.S.–Europe trust has been strained, showing how far-reaching Trump’s assertive diplomacy has become.

Iran Unrest and U.S. Pressure

From late December 2025, Iran experienced nationwide protests, initially triggered by economic collapse, currency devaluation, and skyrocketing living costs, evolving into broad dissatisfaction with the regime. The government’s harsh crackdown led to casualties and arrests on a scale unseen since the 1979 Islamic Revolution.

The U.S., which maintains heavy sanctions against Iran citing terrorism sponsorship and nuclear/military threats, seized this moment to intervene. Trump publicly announced deploying a fleet—including aircraft carriers and missile destroyers—to the Persian Gulf to deter further escalation. He emphasized a preference for avoiding force but warned of potential military action if the regime continued violent repression.

Trump also communicated with Iranian protesters via public statements and social media, encouraging demonstrations and denouncing government violence. He canceled all official diplomatic talks until Tehran ceased the crackdown. While some protesters hoped for U.S. support, the absence of direct action led to frustration and feelings of abandonment.

Iranian Revolutionary Guard leaders warned that any U.S. strike would be considered a full-scale war. Protests and anti-U.S. imagery reflected strong resistance. Intelligence reports indicating a temporary halt in state violence led Trump to consider pausing military actions while closely monitoring the situation, balancing threats with cautious observation.

Trump’s strategy combined military presence and public warnings to pressure Tehran, deter large-scale killings, and strengthen U.S. influence in the Middle East. Yet this high-risk approach also raised the possibility of miscalculations, where tensions could escalate unintentionally, making the U.S. a target for criticism and resistance.

The “Board of Peace”

Traditionally, the U.S. has been seen as the global big brother. But with China’s growing influence and global economic support programs, U.S. presidents often feel impatient with Beijing’s increasing UN sway. Trump, ambitious and assertive, sought to take matters further.

At the 2026 Davos Forum, he launched the “Board of Peace”, initially proposed to address Gaza peace but now expanded to serve as a broader global conflict mediation mechanism. The initiative leverages U.S. influence to create an alternative diplomatic platform and invites multiple countries to participate.

However, critics question whether it is more for show than genuine peacekeeping. The EU’s concern lies less with the stated goals and more with the lack of clarity: the legal status, decision-making process, funding, and international law accountability remain unspecified. Unlike multilateral bodies like the UN or OSCE, this U.S.-backed, president-driven mechanism risks becoming a coercive tool rather than a genuine mediator.

The EU fears it could undermine Europe’s long-standing role in Middle East diplomacy, forcing it from rule-maker to follower. China was excluded, reflecting Trump’s view of Beijing as a competitor, not a partner. The Board aims to present participation as a political statement, effectively creating a U.S.-led bloc in global conflict mediation.

For Australia, the Board is a hot potato. Prime Minister Albanese received an invitation but has not confirmed participation. Several NATO and EU countries have declined, while Canada was disinvited over disagreements on China policy. Thirty-plus leaders who accepted include war actors like Putin and Israel’s Netanyahu. How they could effectively promote peace remains questionable, and handling the invitation diplomatically will test Albanese’s political skill.

Trump’s Diplomatic Logic

Across Gaza, Ukraine, Venezuela, Greenland, Iran, and the Board of Peace, Trump’s strategy is consistent: proactive engagement, pressure, disruption of norms, and forcing allies and adversaries to recalculate. He eschews slow multilateral negotiations in favor of military, economic, and media leverage, coupled with highly personalized decision-making, shifting power quickly at the negotiating table.

To Trump, diplomacy is a continuous game of strategy, not merely maintaining order. He pushes situations to the edge, then retreats strategically to gain advantage. While controversial and eroding trust among allies, it successfully recenters U.S. influence.

Crucially, Trump applies pressure not only to adversaries but to allies, forcing them to demonstrate loyalty or strategic value. This increases U.S. bargaining leverage but consumes trust capital, making international relations more transactional and short-term, and setting the stage for future friction.

Costs and Risks of Assertive Diplomacy

Reliance on pressure and uncertainty may yield short-term results but risks long-term instability. Highly personalized, low-institutional approaches erode trust in rules, procedures, and multilateral cooperation. Misjudgments are more likely in opaque, high-stakes situations. Allies and adversaries may misread threats, escalating conflict even without provocation.

Trump is reshaping U.S. diplomacy from guardian of order to rewriter of order, providing tactical flexibility but weakening institutional credibility. Whether the U.S. can balance assertive pressure with sustained trust will determine its long-term global leadership.

Ultimately, Trump’s strategy may open new strategic space for the U.S. or provoke deeper backlash and confrontation. One thing is certain: the international stage in 2026 is no longer the old world, and Trump is the key variable driving this structural transformation.

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