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U.S. Tax Policy Reversals: The Future of Cross-Border E-Commerce is Uncertain

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U.S. President Donald Trump signed a presidential executive order on February 1 that imposed additional tariffs on goods imported from Mexico, Canada, and China, specifying that small-dollar imports of less than 800 U.S. dollars would also be included in the scope of the tax. The move is believed to target Chinese e-commerce companies such as Temu and Shein, which have taken advantage of the duty-free policy on small-value imports to rapidly expand their share of the U.S. market. The latest news is that Trump has signed another executive order temporarily freezing tariffs on low-cost packages from China so that specific arrangements can be made. The White House did not specify how long the administration plans to delay the tariffs.

Fast Fashion Brand SHEIN Dominates Overseas Markets with Low Prices

Chinese e-commerce is pervasive

Temu has been expanding overseas since September 2020, and ECDB (e-commerce database) figures show an exponential increase in web traffic and app downloads in May 2023 compared to April. Not only Temu, but also Shein, Aliexpress, and JD have taken their domestic competition to the global market, creating a wave of Chinese e-commerce platform shopping around the world. In the midst of the Russian-Ukrainian war and the inflationary impact of the new Covid-19 pandemic in Europe and the United States, low-cost products have become more attractive to European and American consumers, and have even relieved them of their tight wallets.

In the U.S., Temu bills itself as a 2022 Boston-based, Delaware-registered business that ships products directly from manufacturers and suppliers. According to industry analysis, Temu’s primary operator is its Chinese parent company, Pinduoduo, which was founded in Guangdong in 2019. Leveraging Pinduoduo’s experience in grabbing the market with low prices in China, Temu has not only rapidly built up its user base in Europe and the U.S. through extensive advertising and referrals from friends, but has even attracted consumers who boycotted Amazon because they thought it was a monopoly e-commerce company. On the other hand, Shein is a cross-border B2C Internet enterprise focusing on women’s fast fashion, which was founded in October 2008 with the goal of “enjoying the beauty of fashion for everyone”. Shein’s business focuses on women’s fast fashion, and it has entered major markets such as North America, Europe, the Middle East, Southeast Asia and South America, and directly serves consumers in more than 150 countries around the world, with an APP that covers more than 50 languages globally, and owns 11 private labels. 2020, during the outbreak of the New Crown epidemic, the apparel industry was hit hard, and Zara announced that its revenue had been cut by half in February-April, and it decided to close 1,200 stores. Zara announced that its revenues would be almost halved from February to April and decided to close 1,200 stores. At the same time, Shein’s sales exceeded $40 billion in the first half of 2020, and with a total valuation of more than $15 billion in E-round financing, it has become the apparel brand that is most likely to challenge Zara’s leading position.

One of the secrets of these e-commerce companies’ “pie in the sky” approach to overseas markets is their ability to understand and take advantage of local laws. The costs of cross-border e-commerce include marketing, customer acquisition, cost of goods, and transportation. Currently, Temu and Shein are taking advantage of the Universal Postal Agreement to utilize free parcel post and tariff exemptions to significantly reduce costs. In the U.S., for example, if the value of imported goods is less than $800, duty-free measures apply (the De Minimis rule); the De Minimis rule has been used by Temu, Shein, and other Chinese low-cost e-commerce companies that have been growing rapidly in the U.S. and elsewhere in recent years. These companies deliver goods directly from Chinese factories and warehouses to U.S. consumers through air transportation and other means, realizing non-taxable sales and thus suppressing prices. Compared with U.S. e-commerce companies such as Amazon, which have built warehouses and logistics networks within the U.S., Chinese e-commerce companies have stronger price competitiveness. Trump’s latest tariff policy has changed the status quo.

Building warehouses in the U.S., in addition to increased customs declaration fees and tariffs, but also additional transportation costs, and inventory and management logistics costs, it is clear that operating costs will increase significantly.

 

Seeking survival in the midst of uncertainty

Trump’s policy is a bit like the wolf coming to the rescue. Today he says he will levy taxes, but tomorrow he says he will not do so for the time being. Just when the media are clamoring that cross-border e-commerce overnight, the U.S. tariff policy has changed again – Trump signed an executive order that will continue to allow low-cost product parcels from China to enter the U.S. tariff-free for the time being. The U.S. will continue to provide “de minimis” tariff exemptions for goods from China until the Department of Commerce “establishes adequate systems to fully and expeditiously process and collect tariff revenues”. This change is a win for Chinese e-commerce platforms such as Temu and Shein, which ship directly to the U.S. and are very popular with cost-conscious shoppers, and a relief for U.S.-based consumers, who face higher costs on retail goods shipped from China.

According to statistics, approximately 4 million small-dollar packages valued at less than $800 are shipped from China to the U.S. every day. While this may not be a “big deal” in the huge volume of U.S.-China economic and trade transactions, the pain of eliminating the small-dollar exemption could easily and quickly be transmitted to the nerve endings of U.S. society, given that most of these packages consist of items that American citizens and businesses need on a daily basis, such as low-priced apparel, toys, and electronics, as well as production necessities such as screws and valves, and so on. Perhaps this immediate impact on people’s livelihoods is the main reason behind the policy’s hasty braking.

Nevertheless, Chinese cross-border e-commerce companies such as Temu and Shein are still trembling in fear of Trump’s unpredictable style of governance. In the future, in the face of unpredictable tariff policy changes, cross-border e-commerce large enterprises will choose to enter local warehouses to reduce tariffs, but a group of cross-border e-commerce ordinary sellers are complaining that because of the lack of ability to large-volume warehousing, it will be even more affected in the future. In particular, if the United States takes the lead, will Europe and Japan follow suit? There is a trend in the European Union to remove the exemption for goods under 150 euros, and Japan has a tax-free policy for parcels under 1,000 yen in value. If the whole world adjusts the tax exemption policy for small parcels, the future days of ordinary cross-border e-commerce sellers in China will definitely not be as good as before. In response to the uncertainty of U.S. trade policy, Shein and Temu have opened distribution centers in the U.S. that allow sellers to ship their goods to the U.S. and store them in local warehouses, from which they are shipped to U.S. consumers. As they have become the largest and most monopolized supply platforms, these changes will of course drive up the price of goods, but in the absence of strong competition, it is believed that these companies are still quite capable of facing new challengers.

 

Who pays the price?

With the slogan “Shop like a Billionaire”, Temu is using an extremely low pricing strategy that is killing it in overseas markets. Against the backdrop of shipping overseas, Temu sells sneakers for RMB 45, glasses for RMB 13, sunglasses for RMB 8, cell phone holders for RMB 9, drones for RMB 110, and handheld vacuum cleaners for RMB 40, which is an unbelievably low price. In fact, this comes from the plight of China’s foreign trade since 2022: due to the dynamic zero and “de-risking” of China’s foreign trade suffered a super-expected decline, domestic enterprises have a large amount of inventory backlog. This backlog of inventory is better than rotting in warehouses, no matter how low the price is, as long as the payback cycle is fast. This, coupled with high inflationary pressures in Western societies after 2023, has led to a huge increase in consumer demand for cheaper goods. Against this backdrop, Temu has become the world’s second largest e-commerce company after Amazon, and behind its glittering results are dealers who are crying out for help. Shein, the same fast-fashion brand as Temu, also offers ridiculously cheap clothing. In this supply chain, a large number of laborers working in textile factories in Panyu, Guangzhou, are being squeezed – companies are squeezing social justice and the rule of law to keep costs down, and leaving all the costs to suppliers and employees.

The emergence of this phenomenon was very similar to the oppression of workers’ rights by capitalists after the Industrial Revolution. Workers migrated from the countryside to the cities, leaving the land that provided the basic living conditions, and had to rely on their labor to earn a living, without the ability to bargain with the capitalists. Eventually, social instability evolved over a long period of time, resulting in a slight improvement for workers in developed countries through the enactment of labor protection legislation by the government. Cross-border e-commerce like Temu and Shein, where the benefits go to the company and the costs are passed on to the suppliers and workers, is very unlikely to happen in developed countries. However, the same cannot be said for populous countries such as China or India.

 

Product Quality and Intellectual Property

Consumers may order from these Chinese e-commerce platforms to save money, but product quality is a growing concern in many countries. In addition, counterfeiting is another issue that has been cited as a major market disruptor for low-cost products in China – the protection of anonymity and low thresholds for use on the internet have made e-commerce platforms the best place to sell counterfeits, and Shein’s history of plagiarism is legion, with international brands such as Ralph Lauren, Levi’s, and Zara, as well as Chinese Taobao, being some of the best sellers. Shein has a history of copying everything from international brands such as Ralph Lauren, Levi’s, and Zara to popular clothing on Taobao in China, and has even been accused by the Mexican Ministry of Culture of directly copying the workmanship and patterns of the traditional Mexican embroidery, Huipil. In the face of these lawsuits, Shein seems to be unaffected by the controversy, claiming that the infringing goods were designed independently by the merchants, and that the liability and compensation are borne by the merchants, not by Shein, and that Shein’s huge profits are shared by the entire community.

 

Personal data becomes a commodity

What’s more, the security of personal data is a matter of great concern. Not many people are aware that when a person makes a purchase on an online platform or uses a service (such as enjoying a TikTok video or one of China’s most popular dramas), the user not only receives the service, but also becomes part of the collective data collected by the platform. These data can be used to analyze various human behaviors, and to know and predict their activities and reactions in other areas. The platforms can also use the feedback to change the services they provide to the users or the products they recommend, thus controlling the users to stay on the platforms. Therefore, if these cross-border e-commerce companies become significant suppliers of shopping to people in other countries, it can be argued that they also become a way for China to influence other countries.

For example, Temu collects more information than is necessary for online shopping, including personal biometrics (such as fingerprints) and other data. The difference between China and the West in terms of data ownership is that the West uses data through accountability systems, but Chinese companies and governments are very vague about how they will use consumer data, and you don’t know how the data you leave behind will be used.

 

Conclusion

Temu and Shein are two cross-border platforms that have long been under the scrutiny of Western governments due to their “over-success” in penetrating Western societies and their enormous potential to influence society. Plus, they have long been criticized for labor exploitation in their supply chains, prompting investigations into their ethical sourcing practices. Ironically, while countries like Europe and the United States are pointing fingers and blaming China for its human rights situation, their people are consuming and enjoying products produced by forced labor and low wages; especially at a time of rampant inflation, consumers in the Western world will “vote with their feet” and make their own choices whether to boycott or to comply.

Trump’s order to cancel the tariff exemption for small packages today has attracted global attention as to how much it will affect these companies, and whether it will lead to a new direction of development in the globalization of cross-border e-commerce, so let’s wait and see.

Article/Editorial Department Sameway Magazine

Photo/Internet

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Walking with the Solitary (1): The Lonely People

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Raymond Chow

My New Challenge

Over the past few decades, I’ve written numerous books and articles on a wide variety of topics. However, last October, I decided to write a book entirely different from anything I had done before, titled Solitary but Not Isolated. I chose to publish it through crowdfunding. Readers interested in supporting this book can visit the following webpage to learn more and help make it a reality.

I attended a rooftop school in Hong Kong for primary education (a unique feature of Hong Kong in the 1960s: temporary classrooms built on top of apartment blocks in resettlement areas to accommodate children who had moved into the district). Resources were extremely limited. In sixth grade, the school principal gave me and seven other students the opportunity to post our writings on the bulletin board every two weeks for the whole school to read. This was my first experience of writing for a public audience.

In secondary school at Queen’s College, the school published the annual magazine The Yellow Dragon, the earliest and longest-running secondary school annual in Hong Kong. My writings were never published there, though my photos occasionally appeared in reports of school activities. At university, I volunteered as editor for a scholarly publication by the Science Society called Exploration, but after two or three years it was discontinued as no one wished to continue it.

During university, I studied mathematics, which required little essay writing—mostly problem-solving. After entering the field of education, I wrote numerous articles on Hong Kong education that were published in newspaper columns. Later, through curriculum development and teacher training in Hong Kong, I had the rare opportunity to write and publish mathematics textbooks spanning from Grade 1 to Form 7—something unprecedented in Hong Kong.

After moving to Australia, I served as editor of the Christian publication Living Monthly, and eventually founded Sameway magazine, which continues today. From the first issue, I wrote the opening column Words of Sameway, and over 21 years, I have written a total of 745 pieces—a record of my life.

Yet writing Solitary but Not Isolated is something I never anticipated doing since I first learned about autism decades ago. Publishing this book is closely connected to my work with Sameway. I can only say this is a new challenge given by God, a chance to take Sameway to a new stage.

Those Who Love Solitude

Solitary but Not Isolated tells the story of a person with autism. Based on her experiences, the Happy Hands Organization has developed a bilingual training program to help autistic individuals transition from school to the workplace. Launched this year, the program aims to support others in similar circumstances.

Most people with autism do not actively seek social interactions. When they do engage with strangers, they may appear difficult to connect with or communicate with, often leading to social neglect or isolation. For parents and family, this creates a lifelong burden. Even those who complete secondary or tertiary education, despite having professional knowledge, often cannot fully utilize their abilities at work because of incomplete social understanding and lack of basic communication skills. Consequently, they are frequently relegated to jobs that do not match their abilities or are assigned work requiring minimal interaction.

Western society’s understanding of autism began with the lifestyle demands of modern life, emphasizing early social engagement and learning in school. Families, having fewer children, often pay close attention to each child’s development and have higher expectations. Over the decades, understanding of autism has evolved—from viewing it as a mental illness to recognizing it as a deviation from typical personality development. Yet how society should assist their growth remains uncertain.

Decades ago, Western focus was on “treating” autism. Research into genetic, environmental, or physical causes has made limited progress. Interventions to change solitary behaviors are also limited—for example, providing speech therapy in childhood or occupational therapy for daily living skills offers only partial support. While societal acceptance and support for autistic individuals have greatly increased, parents feel that more is needed when their children enter adult life and the workforce.

In short, those inclined toward solitude still face a gap in having equal opportunities to thrive socially and professionally.

Understanding Society and the World

Many autistic individuals focus intensely on specific interests, with little experience in social relationships or current events. As adults, this often leads others to perceive them as unaware of society, or even “odd.” In workplaces, where collaboration is essential, they may face exclusion. Many end up in solitary work with minimal social interaction.

Among Chinese communities, first- or second-generation immigrants with autism often face compounded challenges due to limited knowledge of society. Parents, unfamiliar with Australian systems, cannot fully guide their children, and these high-ability individuals rarely integrate with society, limiting opportunities to demonstrate their potential.

In 2024, ABC launched The Assembly, a TV interview program where host Leigh Sales trained 15 autistic individuals to conduct interviews and produce the show. Participants significantly increased their understanding of society and the world, and their communication and social skills improved greatly.

Last year, Sameway had the opportunity to train a bilingual autistic new immigrant, successfully helping her become a magazine editor. Meanwhile, the Happy Hands Organization developed a workplace adaptation program for bilingual, high-functioning autistic individuals. Through four to six months of training, this program offers these often-overlooked individuals a chance to adapt and develop in Australia.

Thus, Sameway is not only an information platform supporting immigrant communities but also provides a development space and opportunities for those with special needs. Readers interested can contact our magazine or the Happy Hands Organization for details.

The Loneliness of Immigrants

Many immigrants arrive in Australia as adults. They often lack opportunities to understand society deeply and, due to work and life commitments, rarely have the time to engage fully with their new environment or develop close relationships with Australians. Consequently, most live within Chinese communities with similar backgrounds. Passive personalities or limited social skills often lead to intense feelings of loneliness.

Leaving their original home and social networks creates a sense of marginalization similar to that experienced by some autistic individuals. Many immigrants are willing to understand and engage with their new society but face personal limitations and a lack of proactive governmental support, leaving them unable to integrate fully into Australian life.

Chinese immigrants, in particular, may rely heavily on long-term Chinese social media and information platforms, further isolating them from the broader society. This social isolation significantly affects their participation and engagement in Australian life.

The goal of Sameway is to assist immigrants in integrating into Australia, fostering participation and engagement in society. We hope that with continued support, we can go further and achieve more.

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Walk With the Needy

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During the Christmas and New Year period, “Sameway” relocated though only to a spot less than 100 meters across from their original office. It was a tiring task, but we have finally settled in, allowing us to take a longer break during the holiday.

However, the world still undergoes significant changes. The President of Venezuela has been forcibly taken to New York for trial, while the new leader of Venezuela is willing to govern in line with U.S. interests. The longstanding alliance between Europe and the U.S. has become history in light of the U.S. attempt to purchase Greenland. The “Board of Peace” established by Trump requests that nations place the keeping of global peace in his personal hands, but attendees at the invitation include authoritarian dictators who have initiated wars multiple times. The generation that has grown up advocating for global integration, respect for human rights, and peaceful coexistence is now at a lost and confused. Will the world revert to a chaotic state governed by the law of the jungle, where strong countries dominate weaker ones, or can humanity choose to move forward in civilization by learning mistakes from history? We truly have no sure answer.

However, it is a time where the rise of Trump and the increasing power of global far-right political forces, coupled with the internet and social media replacing traditional media as the main source of information for many people. This has led to a society overwhelmed with information and challenges in distinguishing truth from falsehood, which is equally as frightening as an era where information is blocked, preventing access to necessary knowledge.

In Australia, as a multicultural country, immigrants face significant difficulties in obtaining lifestyle information through mainstream media. I believe that to build Australia as a harmonious and cohesive society, the government must invest substantial resources to assist immigrant communities to establish high-quality and credible multicultural media, and to accelerate the integration of first-generation immigrants into society, allowing them to become a driving force in social development.

In the past year, we have strengthened the current affairs information provided on our website. In the coming year, we will focus on enhancing our information services for the Chinese community through our broadcasts and magazine publications. I hope you can support us in achieving the goal of promoting the development of the Chinese immigrant community.

Starting this year, in line with the REJOICE’s initiative for bilingual new immigrants with autism, I will be writing a brand-new column to explore this topic with the community as they navigate With the NDIS program. I hope this innovative program by the REJOICE will receive your support for promotion and development within the community.

Additionally, after three years of training aimed at encouraging seniors to use social platforms to expand their community engagement, we will take a further step this year by launching training courses to assist seniors in using artificial intelligence. Our goal is to help Chinese seniors in Australia stay up-to-date and enjoy a higher quality of life brought about by AI.

In the new year, let us work together to build a stronger local Chinese community.

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Entering Trump 2.0’s New World

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Since January 20, 2025, when Trump assumed the U.S. presidency once again, domestic issues in America have been frequent and complex, but the world cannot deny that his foreign policy has reshaped the global political landscape, ushering in a new era.

Over the past year, Trump has been extremely proactive in foreign affairs—from Greenland to Venezuela—demonstrating relentless ambition to expand U.S. influence abroad, even amid controversy and the risk of destabilizing other nations.

Prelude to 2025

Let’s briefly review Trump’s major foreign policy actions in 2025.

First, his involvement in the Gaza Strip cannot be overlooked. In February 2025, he publicly stated that the U.S. would play a more active, even leading, role in the region, supporting Israel’s security needs, including strengthening border defense and intelligence sharing. He also attempted to broker ceasefire talks in the U.S.’s name, coordinating Egypt, Qatar, and other countries as intermediaries. By October, Trump personally attended a multilateral meeting in Sharm El-Sheikh, pushing for a ceasefire agreement and reconstruction framework between Israel and Hamas.

While opinions on his approach were divided, with some critics arguing that direct intervention could heighten regional tensions, Trump nonetheless reaffirmed America’s influence and presence in Middle Eastern affairs.

Early in 2025, the Trump administration reviewed all foreign aid and temporarily halted military assistance to Ukraine, using it as leverage to push forward negotiations. By mid-March, following U.S.–Ukraine consultations, military and security support resumed, including air defense systems, drone technology, and financial assistance. The U.S. also advocated international sanctions against Russia, such as high-tech export restrictions and asset freezes. These actions demonstrated Trump’s support for strategic allies and further solidified U.S. influence in Europe.

While these events may seem unrelated, they set the stage for early 2026’s diplomatic developments.

The Venezuela Raid

Trump’s most notable action in January 2026 was the sudden capture (or abduction) of Venezuelan President Nicolás Maduro and his wife.

In fact, as early as December 1, 2025, Trump had called Maduro, demanding he step down. When Maduro refused, Trump publicly ramped up pressure in mid-to-late December, applying economic and military pressure—including blockades, intercepting suspicious ships, and bolstering military deployments—to isolate the Maduro government. He even hinted that further U.S. action might follow if Maduro continued to resist, signaling a preemptive warning.

The result: U.S. forces launched a large-scale operation codenamed “Absolute Determination”, storming Caracas, capturing Maduro and his wife, and transporting them to New York for trial. The justification cited Maduro and his inner circle’s involvement in drug trafficking and terrorism, including conspiracies to smuggle cocaine into the U.S. At the same time, Maduro’s government had close ties with China and Russia, who provided military and economic support, posing a threat to U.S. influence in the Western Hemisphere.

The operation was also seen as a move to block rival powers from gaining leverage in Venezuela. More importantly, given Venezuela’s vast oil reserves, Trump clearly aimed to reassert U.S. dominance in the hemisphere and secure economic benefits. For many Americans, the raid showcased U.S. military might, boosting Trump’s prestige and approval. True to form, Trump paid little attention to criticism, focusing instead on praise, and was visibly self-satisfied.

International reactions were strong. China and Russia immediately condemned the U.S. action, calling it a severe violation of Venezuelan sovereignty and international law. Iran and other nations with tense U.S. relations also criticized the operation as unilateralism under the guise of anti-drug and anti-terrorism efforts, destabilizing the region.

European responses were mixed. Some EU countries long critical of Maduro still expressed reservations about the U.S. bypassing international authorization for direct military action, emphasizing that even dealing with authoritarian regimes should follow international mechanisms. This tension revealed the strain Trump’s style places on traditional allies.

In Latin America, reactions were split: anti-Maduro governments and Venezuelan opposition privately supported the move as a chance to break political deadlock, while others feared overt U.S. military intervention might revive Cold War-era “Monroe Doctrine” fears, worsening regional security.

Currently, former Vice President Rodríguez serves as interim president of Venezuela, cooperating with the U.S. while maintaining loyalty to the domestic ruling class, keeping the country relatively stable. For Trump, the goal of preventing other powers from gaining influence in the Americas and securing economic gains was achieved. Many Americans saw the raid as a demonstration of military strength, reinforcing Trump’s image as a decisive leader.

Trump’s Greenland Gambit

Since 2025, Trump has repeatedly brought Greenland into the spotlight, making it one of the most challenging and controversial topics of his second term.

Greenland, the world’s largest island, is under Danish sovereignty but enjoys local autonomy. Its location between North America and Europe along the Arctic shipping route has made it strategically valuable. Previously overlooked due to extreme cold, climate change and melting ice have expanded Arctic navigation, increasing Greenland’s military and technological importance. The island also contains vast deposits of rare earth and critical minerals, essential for modern technology and defense systems.

Trump’s assertive approach clearly aimed to maximize U.S. influence over Greenland. In 2025, he publicly expressed interest in buying Greenland and urged negotiations to secure it, even hinting at military options. This escalated tensions with Denmark and Europe.

European reactions were unanimous: Greenlandic leaders stated the island is “not for sale”, and massive protests erupted in Greenland and Denmark. The UK prime minister warned Trump that high tariffs or aggression would be a grave mistake, while EU countries—including Denmark, France, Germany, and the UK—supported Danish sovereignty. Even European far-right parties, traditionally aligned with Trump, criticized his Greenland strategy as overt aggression, causing internal rifts.

At the 2026 Davos World Economic Forum, Trump and NATO Secretary-General Rutte reached a “preliminary framework” focusing on Arctic security cooperation rather than territorial control. Trump framed it as safeguarding U.S. military bases and economic interests, while Denmark retained final authority. However, Greenland’s government stressed it was not fully involved in negotiations, highlighting an ongoing tension. Analysts debate whether this is a tactical retreat or pragmatic compromise.

Even with the temporary easing of tensions, U.S.–Europe trust has been strained, showing how far-reaching Trump’s assertive diplomacy has become.

Iran Unrest and U.S. Pressure

From late December 2025, Iran experienced nationwide protests, initially triggered by economic collapse, currency devaluation, and skyrocketing living costs, evolving into broad dissatisfaction with the regime. The government’s harsh crackdown led to casualties and arrests on a scale unseen since the 1979 Islamic Revolution.

The U.S., which maintains heavy sanctions against Iran citing terrorism sponsorship and nuclear/military threats, seized this moment to intervene. Trump publicly announced deploying a fleet—including aircraft carriers and missile destroyers—to the Persian Gulf to deter further escalation. He emphasized a preference for avoiding force but warned of potential military action if the regime continued violent repression.

Trump also communicated with Iranian protesters via public statements and social media, encouraging demonstrations and denouncing government violence. He canceled all official diplomatic talks until Tehran ceased the crackdown. While some protesters hoped for U.S. support, the absence of direct action led to frustration and feelings of abandonment.

Iranian Revolutionary Guard leaders warned that any U.S. strike would be considered a full-scale war. Protests and anti-U.S. imagery reflected strong resistance. Intelligence reports indicating a temporary halt in state violence led Trump to consider pausing military actions while closely monitoring the situation, balancing threats with cautious observation.

Trump’s strategy combined military presence and public warnings to pressure Tehran, deter large-scale killings, and strengthen U.S. influence in the Middle East. Yet this high-risk approach also raised the possibility of miscalculations, where tensions could escalate unintentionally, making the U.S. a target for criticism and resistance.

The “Board of Peace”

Traditionally, the U.S. has been seen as the global big brother. But with China’s growing influence and global economic support programs, U.S. presidents often feel impatient with Beijing’s increasing UN sway. Trump, ambitious and assertive, sought to take matters further.

At the 2026 Davos Forum, he launched the “Board of Peace”, initially proposed to address Gaza peace but now expanded to serve as a broader global conflict mediation mechanism. The initiative leverages U.S. influence to create an alternative diplomatic platform and invites multiple countries to participate.

However, critics question whether it is more for show than genuine peacekeeping. The EU’s concern lies less with the stated goals and more with the lack of clarity: the legal status, decision-making process, funding, and international law accountability remain unspecified. Unlike multilateral bodies like the UN or OSCE, this U.S.-backed, president-driven mechanism risks becoming a coercive tool rather than a genuine mediator.

The EU fears it could undermine Europe’s long-standing role in Middle East diplomacy, forcing it from rule-maker to follower. China was excluded, reflecting Trump’s view of Beijing as a competitor, not a partner. The Board aims to present participation as a political statement, effectively creating a U.S.-led bloc in global conflict mediation.

For Australia, the Board is a hot potato. Prime Minister Albanese received an invitation but has not confirmed participation. Several NATO and EU countries have declined, while Canada was disinvited over disagreements on China policy. Thirty-plus leaders who accepted include war actors like Putin and Israel’s Netanyahu. How they could effectively promote peace remains questionable, and handling the invitation diplomatically will test Albanese’s political skill.

Trump’s Diplomatic Logic

Across Gaza, Ukraine, Venezuela, Greenland, Iran, and the Board of Peace, Trump’s strategy is consistent: proactive engagement, pressure, disruption of norms, and forcing allies and adversaries to recalculate. He eschews slow multilateral negotiations in favor of military, economic, and media leverage, coupled with highly personalized decision-making, shifting power quickly at the negotiating table.

To Trump, diplomacy is a continuous game of strategy, not merely maintaining order. He pushes situations to the edge, then retreats strategically to gain advantage. While controversial and eroding trust among allies, it successfully recenters U.S. influence.

Crucially, Trump applies pressure not only to adversaries but to allies, forcing them to demonstrate loyalty or strategic value. This increases U.S. bargaining leverage but consumes trust capital, making international relations more transactional and short-term, and setting the stage for future friction.

Costs and Risks of Assertive Diplomacy

Reliance on pressure and uncertainty may yield short-term results but risks long-term instability. Highly personalized, low-institutional approaches erode trust in rules, procedures, and multilateral cooperation. Misjudgments are more likely in opaque, high-stakes situations. Allies and adversaries may misread threats, escalating conflict even without provocation.

Trump is reshaping U.S. diplomacy from guardian of order to rewriter of order, providing tactical flexibility but weakening institutional credibility. Whether the U.S. can balance assertive pressure with sustained trust will determine its long-term global leadership.

Ultimately, Trump’s strategy may open new strategic space for the U.S. or provoke deeper backlash and confrontation. One thing is certain: the international stage in 2026 is no longer the old world, and Trump is the key variable driving this structural transformation.

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