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Li Ka-shing’s port sale sparks heated debate

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Earlier this month, Cheung Kong Hutchison, controlled by the Li Ka-shing family, announced that it had reached an in-principle agreement with a consortium led by U.S.-based Blackrock to sell 80 percent of the assets of its CK Hutchison Port Group. The deal involves 43 ports and supporting logistics networks in 23 countries around the world, and is one of the largest port sales in the world in recent years. It is expected that the final agreement for the sale of Panama Ports will be signed by April 2nd. However, Beijing’s dissatisfaction may cast a shadow over the deal. With all the parties speaking out, the issue continues to attract strong attention and has become a new battleground in the U.S.-China wargame.

 

The uncertainty of the sale agreement

After US President Donald Trump threatened to repeal the Panama Canal transfer agreement due to Chinese manipulation, the issue of the right to operate this key international waterway has become a hotspot in US-China relations. A few days ago, Hong Kong’s richest man Li Ka-shing’s Cheung Kong Hutchison Holdings Ltd. has planned to sell its 43 overseas ports to a consortium led by BlackRock for US$19 billion, including the Panama Canal-related business, which Trump claimed “poses a national security problem for the U.S.”. Trump praised BlackRock after the deal was announced. Cheung Kong’s sale does not include its HPH Trust, which manages port facilities in Hong Kong, Shenzhen and other Chinese ports, including Yantian International and Hong Kong International Terminals.

The deal bears the mark of Li Ka-shing, the Hong Kong billionaire who has been dubbed “Superman” for building his vast business empire. Now, to avoid being drawn into a wider showdown between the U.S. and China, Li is looking to stay out of the line of fire by selling his business to a group of well-heeled U.S. investors for US$19 billion. However, a number of Chinese media outlets have recently published articles questioning Cheung Kong’s port deal, saying, “Don’t be naive, don’t be foolish,” and that “great entrepreneurs are all geniune patriots”, and questioning why CK Hutchison has so easily transferred so many of its important ports to “unsuspecting U.S. forces”. CK Hutchison responded to the skepticism by saying that the transaction was purely commercial in nature. It must be said that Li Ka-shing’s sale of global port assets other than China, especially the Panama port, once again demonstrates his precise grasp of capital market trends in the global geopolitical landscape.

It remains to be seen whether there will be any complications in the countdown to the signing of the agreement. The Hong Kong and Macao Affairs Office of the State Council of China has recently forwarded a number of commentaries to Ta Kung Pao, criticizing Li Ka-shing for “succumbing to U.S. pressure” and “betraying the interests of the country”. “The article “All Great Entrepreneurs are Geniune Patriots” begins with a series of five questions to CK Hutchison, including “In the face of right and wrong, how should an entrepreneur make choices and where should he lead his enterprise? The article said, “Great entrepreneurs are never cold-blooded speculators seeking profits, but passionate and proud patriots. Although the article did not name Li Ka-shing, it cited Henry Fok, Pao Yuk-kang, Tso Kwong-piu, Ko Lin, Ko Ching-ping and other deceased Hong Kong and Macau people who contributed to the country during the early period of the founding of the Communist Party of China (CPC) and after the reform and opening up of the country as a comparison group of Li Ka-shing, and emphasized that entrepreneurs have to have a spirit of “the greatness of the businessman is to serve the country for the sake of the people”. At a time when Beijing’s political pressure is escalating, CK Hutchison’s share price has fallen, underscoring the investment market’s heightened concern about Beijing’s involvement in geopolitical risks.

Who dares to invest?

Hong Kong’s richest man, Li Ka-shing, has built a multinational port business empire that has been able to expand, not only because it has gained trust from China, helping to promote important national strategic interests such as “One Belt, One Road”, but also because it has gained trust from the international community, proving that the group is not a spokesperson for China under Hong Kong’s unique position of “one country, two systems”. However, in recent years, with the entry into force of the Hong Kong National Security Law, the west sees Hong Kong as losing its autonomy, and it is difficult for Li Ka-shing’s multinational port business kingdom not to be viewed by the international community as a “Chinese enterprise” and become a target of attack by various countries.

According to a report by the Mercator Institute for China Studies in Germany, China has placed considerable emphasis on its global port presence, with 110 ports in 67 countries, and the roles of Chinese companies in these ports can be categorized into three types: operator/owner, developer, and funder. Among these ports, CKH owns or operates 78 ports in 37 countries, of which 33 are owned or operated by Chinese companies. The two ports that CKH intends to sell served 39% of the container ships in the Panama Canal last year, with the US being the largest user of the canal, accounting for 73% of the traffic. China was second with 21.4%. If CKH were to sell all of its overseas ports, it would mean an instant loss of 40 percent of this strategic node for China. The Chief Executive of the Hong Kong Special Administrative Region (HKSAR), Mr. Lee Ka-chiu, has already said that the concerns raised by Li Ka-shing’s deal “deserve to be taken seriously”.

Subtly, in the case of CK Hutchison’s port sale, it is different from the Chinese government’s direct statement and even intervention in the TikTok and Huawei’s Meng Wanzhou cases. This time, the Chinese government did not make a direct statement, but expressed its attitude through the official media department’s newspapers in Hong Kong, in order to incite nationalistic sentiments to flog a private enterprise. The fact that Li Ka-shing has not violated any laws or regulations, but has been subjected to a lot of pressure from public opinion, is questionable. At the same time, the fact that the government has not yet intervened directly shows that the Chinese top management may still be exploring and evaluating the situation. On the one hand, the matter is so big that it has to be taken care of, but on the other hand, since it is an offshore transaction of a foreign enterprise, it is not good to intervene. According to sources familiar with the matter, the Chinese authorities have begun to investigate the sale of Li Ka-shing’s overseas port business, and a number of departments, including the State Administration for Market Supervision, have been instructed by senior state leaders to examine whether there are any potential security loopholes or antitrust violations in this transaction.

In recent years, Hong Kong’s status as an international trading port has been facing serious challenges. Over the years, Hong Kong has become the world’s seventh-largest re-export port for goods by virtue of its independent tariff zone, with re-export trade supporting a quarter of Hong Kong’s economy. However, the Trump administration’s imposition of tariffs on Chinese goods and the inclusion of Hong Kong for the first time in the scope of the same tariffs have directly impacted this position. A few days ago, China’s official newspaper Ta Kung Pao commented that the agreement between CK Hutchison and BlackRock was “profit-oriented, forgetting righteousness in the face of profit,” and that it was related to “national interests and national justice. This kind of open contempt and warning to a private company in the media is reminiscent of “Cultural Revolution-style criticism” and will scare away many potential foreign investors. Beijing’s increasing interference in Hong Kong’s business community – pressuring business leaders to be patriotic through statements and visits by Chinese officials – suggests that it is becoming increasingly difficult for Hong Kong companies to dissociate themselves from Chinese politics.

 

Geopolitical Risks Create Increasing Uncertainty

In the face of the intensifying US-China game, companies are naturally more concerned about whether they will be more easily victimized by the geopolitical rivalry between the big powers. If companies want to operate or expand their business in the international market, they have to strengthen their ability to anticipate geopolitical risks. Li Tzar Kuoi, the son of Li Ka-shing and chairman of Cheung Kong Hutchison, said in a statement accompanying last week’s financial results that the business environment for Cheung Kong Hutchison this year could be “volatile and unpredictable”. With just a week to go before the scheduled date for signing the agreement, any attempt by Hong Kong or Beijing to block the deal would be extraordinary. Chinese companies often have to get permission from regulators to move money out of mainland China. CK Hutchison operates ports around the world, including in China, but none of the 43 ports involved in the BlackRock deal are in China. None of the 43 ports involved in the BlackRock deal are in China, and CKH’s shares are not listed on the mainland.

Since 2012, shortly after Xi Jinping took power, Li has sold many of his real estate investments in mainland China and reinvested most of his money in Europe. His actions have been widely criticized by Chinese nationalists, but from a financial perspective, it was smart. He managed to divest himself of these investments before the start of the Chinese real estate market crash in 2021, which has continued to deteriorate ever since. It has since been argued that this sale of overseas ports, like the one that foresaw the dramatic changes in China’s real estate market, was strategically far-sighted if analyzed purely from a business perspective, avoiding possible political risks while realizing an asset at a very attractive price and leaving the group with plenty of room for its future strategic deployment. However, all these are based on the foundation that the agreement can be signed smoothly.

As geopolitical tensions between the US and China intensify, access to information on the flow of goods through key waterways will be crucial in the event of a “supply chain war”. Trump has repeatedly advocated regaining control of the Panama Canal and surrounding areas for reasons including the threat posed by Chinese influence. U.S. media revealed that the White House has asked the Pentagon to provide military options to ensure U.S. “free access” to the canal. In addition, the Office of the U.S. Trade Representative’s proposal to levy high fees on Chinese-made ships has triggered tremors in the international shipping industry. China’s influence in the global port network has also seen more setbacks than advances over the years, with a net overall decline in the number of ports owned directly by China or operated by third parties. As a result, Beijing is bound to take action against Li Ka-shing’s agreement to sell these two important ports. This standoff is a test of how far China’s top leader, Xi Jinping, is willing to go in exercising control over Hong Kong’s commercial sector, and the U.S. will certainly not stand by and watch. The global supply chain and control of ports are developing into a major battleground for great powers, and the future is sure to be a smoldering one.

Years ago, when globalization was in full swing, not many people questioned which country a company belonged to, but now, with the dramatic changes in geopolitics and the global economic crisis, ideology has once again taken over the high ground of public opinion. For example

TikTok is incorporated in the U.S., with corporate headquarters in Los Angeles and Singapore, but is controlled by the board of directors of the Chinese company, TikTok. Even if public opinion glosses over it, TikTok is a global private company: 60% of its investors are global institutions, 20% of its shares are held by its founder, Yiming Zhang, and the other 20% are shared by all its employees; and three of its five board members are Americans. But it’s hard to explain in a few words the real money at stake behind the scenes. And like most major Chinese companies, the Communist Party of China (CPC) set up a party branch at Beatnik in 2014, which probably says a lot. As for Li Ka-shing’s Cheung Kong Hutchison, there is breathing room in today’s searing situation only because of its reliance on Hong Kong, the former Pearl of the Orient, which has evolved into a multinational enterprise through decades of Chinese investment. The deal puts Beijing on the horns of a dilemma, as any major move to jeopardize it could aggravate tensions between the Chinese government and the Trump administration. As you can imagine, there will be consequences to this port sale, and even if the deal is signed, Beijing will be ready to “settle scores in the fall,” and there will be more to come.

Article/Editorial Department Sameway Magazine

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Walking with the Solitary (1): The Lonely People

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Raymond Chow

My New Challenge

Over the past few decades, I’ve written numerous books and articles on a wide variety of topics. However, last October, I decided to write a book entirely different from anything I had done before, titled Solitary but Not Isolated. I chose to publish it through crowdfunding. Readers interested in supporting this book can visit the following webpage to learn more and help make it a reality.

I attended a rooftop school in Hong Kong for primary education (a unique feature of Hong Kong in the 1960s: temporary classrooms built on top of apartment blocks in resettlement areas to accommodate children who had moved into the district). Resources were extremely limited. In sixth grade, the school principal gave me and seven other students the opportunity to post our writings on the bulletin board every two weeks for the whole school to read. This was my first experience of writing for a public audience.

In secondary school at Queen’s College, the school published the annual magazine The Yellow Dragon, the earliest and longest-running secondary school annual in Hong Kong. My writings were never published there, though my photos occasionally appeared in reports of school activities. At university, I volunteered as editor for a scholarly publication by the Science Society called Exploration, but after two or three years it was discontinued as no one wished to continue it.

During university, I studied mathematics, which required little essay writing—mostly problem-solving. After entering the field of education, I wrote numerous articles on Hong Kong education that were published in newspaper columns. Later, through curriculum development and teacher training in Hong Kong, I had the rare opportunity to write and publish mathematics textbooks spanning from Grade 1 to Form 7—something unprecedented in Hong Kong.

After moving to Australia, I served as editor of the Christian publication Living Monthly, and eventually founded Sameway magazine, which continues today. From the first issue, I wrote the opening column Words of Sameway, and over 21 years, I have written a total of 745 pieces—a record of my life.

Yet writing Solitary but Not Isolated is something I never anticipated doing since I first learned about autism decades ago. Publishing this book is closely connected to my work with Sameway. I can only say this is a new challenge given by God, a chance to take Sameway to a new stage.

Those Who Love Solitude

Solitary but Not Isolated tells the story of a person with autism. Based on her experiences, the Happy Hands Organization has developed a bilingual training program to help autistic individuals transition from school to the workplace. Launched this year, the program aims to support others in similar circumstances.

Most people with autism do not actively seek social interactions. When they do engage with strangers, they may appear difficult to connect with or communicate with, often leading to social neglect or isolation. For parents and family, this creates a lifelong burden. Even those who complete secondary or tertiary education, despite having professional knowledge, often cannot fully utilize their abilities at work because of incomplete social understanding and lack of basic communication skills. Consequently, they are frequently relegated to jobs that do not match their abilities or are assigned work requiring minimal interaction.

Western society’s understanding of autism began with the lifestyle demands of modern life, emphasizing early social engagement and learning in school. Families, having fewer children, often pay close attention to each child’s development and have higher expectations. Over the decades, understanding of autism has evolved—from viewing it as a mental illness to recognizing it as a deviation from typical personality development. Yet how society should assist their growth remains uncertain.

Decades ago, Western focus was on “treating” autism. Research into genetic, environmental, or physical causes has made limited progress. Interventions to change solitary behaviors are also limited—for example, providing speech therapy in childhood or occupational therapy for daily living skills offers only partial support. While societal acceptance and support for autistic individuals have greatly increased, parents feel that more is needed when their children enter adult life and the workforce.

In short, those inclined toward solitude still face a gap in having equal opportunities to thrive socially and professionally.

Understanding Society and the World

Many autistic individuals focus intensely on specific interests, with little experience in social relationships or current events. As adults, this often leads others to perceive them as unaware of society, or even “odd.” In workplaces, where collaboration is essential, they may face exclusion. Many end up in solitary work with minimal social interaction.

Among Chinese communities, first- or second-generation immigrants with autism often face compounded challenges due to limited knowledge of society. Parents, unfamiliar with Australian systems, cannot fully guide their children, and these high-ability individuals rarely integrate with society, limiting opportunities to demonstrate their potential.

In 2024, ABC launched The Assembly, a TV interview program where host Leigh Sales trained 15 autistic individuals to conduct interviews and produce the show. Participants significantly increased their understanding of society and the world, and their communication and social skills improved greatly.

Last year, Sameway had the opportunity to train a bilingual autistic new immigrant, successfully helping her become a magazine editor. Meanwhile, the Happy Hands Organization developed a workplace adaptation program for bilingual, high-functioning autistic individuals. Through four to six months of training, this program offers these often-overlooked individuals a chance to adapt and develop in Australia.

Thus, Sameway is not only an information platform supporting immigrant communities but also provides a development space and opportunities for those with special needs. Readers interested can contact our magazine or the Happy Hands Organization for details.

The Loneliness of Immigrants

Many immigrants arrive in Australia as adults. They often lack opportunities to understand society deeply and, due to work and life commitments, rarely have the time to engage fully with their new environment or develop close relationships with Australians. Consequently, most live within Chinese communities with similar backgrounds. Passive personalities or limited social skills often lead to intense feelings of loneliness.

Leaving their original home and social networks creates a sense of marginalization similar to that experienced by some autistic individuals. Many immigrants are willing to understand and engage with their new society but face personal limitations and a lack of proactive governmental support, leaving them unable to integrate fully into Australian life.

Chinese immigrants, in particular, may rely heavily on long-term Chinese social media and information platforms, further isolating them from the broader society. This social isolation significantly affects their participation and engagement in Australian life.

The goal of Sameway is to assist immigrants in integrating into Australia, fostering participation and engagement in society. We hope that with continued support, we can go further and achieve more.

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Walk With the Needy

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During the Christmas and New Year period, “Sameway” relocated though only to a spot less than 100 meters across from their original office. It was a tiring task, but we have finally settled in, allowing us to take a longer break during the holiday.

However, the world still undergoes significant changes. The President of Venezuela has been forcibly taken to New York for trial, while the new leader of Venezuela is willing to govern in line with U.S. interests. The longstanding alliance between Europe and the U.S. has become history in light of the U.S. attempt to purchase Greenland. The “Board of Peace” established by Trump requests that nations place the keeping of global peace in his personal hands, but attendees at the invitation include authoritarian dictators who have initiated wars multiple times. The generation that has grown up advocating for global integration, respect for human rights, and peaceful coexistence is now at a lost and confused. Will the world revert to a chaotic state governed by the law of the jungle, where strong countries dominate weaker ones, or can humanity choose to move forward in civilization by learning mistakes from history? We truly have no sure answer.

However, it is a time where the rise of Trump and the increasing power of global far-right political forces, coupled with the internet and social media replacing traditional media as the main source of information for many people. This has led to a society overwhelmed with information and challenges in distinguishing truth from falsehood, which is equally as frightening as an era where information is blocked, preventing access to necessary knowledge.

In Australia, as a multicultural country, immigrants face significant difficulties in obtaining lifestyle information through mainstream media. I believe that to build Australia as a harmonious and cohesive society, the government must invest substantial resources to assist immigrant communities to establish high-quality and credible multicultural media, and to accelerate the integration of first-generation immigrants into society, allowing them to become a driving force in social development.

In the past year, we have strengthened the current affairs information provided on our website. In the coming year, we will focus on enhancing our information services for the Chinese community through our broadcasts and magazine publications. I hope you can support us in achieving the goal of promoting the development of the Chinese immigrant community.

Starting this year, in line with the REJOICE’s initiative for bilingual new immigrants with autism, I will be writing a brand-new column to explore this topic with the community as they navigate With the NDIS program. I hope this innovative program by the REJOICE will receive your support for promotion and development within the community.

Additionally, after three years of training aimed at encouraging seniors to use social platforms to expand their community engagement, we will take a further step this year by launching training courses to assist seniors in using artificial intelligence. Our goal is to help Chinese seniors in Australia stay up-to-date and enjoy a higher quality of life brought about by AI.

In the new year, let us work together to build a stronger local Chinese community.

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Entering Trump 2.0’s New World

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Since January 20, 2025, when Trump assumed the U.S. presidency once again, domestic issues in America have been frequent and complex, but the world cannot deny that his foreign policy has reshaped the global political landscape, ushering in a new era.

Over the past year, Trump has been extremely proactive in foreign affairs—from Greenland to Venezuela—demonstrating relentless ambition to expand U.S. influence abroad, even amid controversy and the risk of destabilizing other nations.

Prelude to 2025

Let’s briefly review Trump’s major foreign policy actions in 2025.

First, his involvement in the Gaza Strip cannot be overlooked. In February 2025, he publicly stated that the U.S. would play a more active, even leading, role in the region, supporting Israel’s security needs, including strengthening border defense and intelligence sharing. He also attempted to broker ceasefire talks in the U.S.’s name, coordinating Egypt, Qatar, and other countries as intermediaries. By October, Trump personally attended a multilateral meeting in Sharm El-Sheikh, pushing for a ceasefire agreement and reconstruction framework between Israel and Hamas.

While opinions on his approach were divided, with some critics arguing that direct intervention could heighten regional tensions, Trump nonetheless reaffirmed America’s influence and presence in Middle Eastern affairs.

Early in 2025, the Trump administration reviewed all foreign aid and temporarily halted military assistance to Ukraine, using it as leverage to push forward negotiations. By mid-March, following U.S.–Ukraine consultations, military and security support resumed, including air defense systems, drone technology, and financial assistance. The U.S. also advocated international sanctions against Russia, such as high-tech export restrictions and asset freezes. These actions demonstrated Trump’s support for strategic allies and further solidified U.S. influence in Europe.

While these events may seem unrelated, they set the stage for early 2026’s diplomatic developments.

The Venezuela Raid

Trump’s most notable action in January 2026 was the sudden capture (or abduction) of Venezuelan President Nicolás Maduro and his wife.

In fact, as early as December 1, 2025, Trump had called Maduro, demanding he step down. When Maduro refused, Trump publicly ramped up pressure in mid-to-late December, applying economic and military pressure—including blockades, intercepting suspicious ships, and bolstering military deployments—to isolate the Maduro government. He even hinted that further U.S. action might follow if Maduro continued to resist, signaling a preemptive warning.

The result: U.S. forces launched a large-scale operation codenamed “Absolute Determination”, storming Caracas, capturing Maduro and his wife, and transporting them to New York for trial. The justification cited Maduro and his inner circle’s involvement in drug trafficking and terrorism, including conspiracies to smuggle cocaine into the U.S. At the same time, Maduro’s government had close ties with China and Russia, who provided military and economic support, posing a threat to U.S. influence in the Western Hemisphere.

The operation was also seen as a move to block rival powers from gaining leverage in Venezuela. More importantly, given Venezuela’s vast oil reserves, Trump clearly aimed to reassert U.S. dominance in the hemisphere and secure economic benefits. For many Americans, the raid showcased U.S. military might, boosting Trump’s prestige and approval. True to form, Trump paid little attention to criticism, focusing instead on praise, and was visibly self-satisfied.

International reactions were strong. China and Russia immediately condemned the U.S. action, calling it a severe violation of Venezuelan sovereignty and international law. Iran and other nations with tense U.S. relations also criticized the operation as unilateralism under the guise of anti-drug and anti-terrorism efforts, destabilizing the region.

European responses were mixed. Some EU countries long critical of Maduro still expressed reservations about the U.S. bypassing international authorization for direct military action, emphasizing that even dealing with authoritarian regimes should follow international mechanisms. This tension revealed the strain Trump’s style places on traditional allies.

In Latin America, reactions were split: anti-Maduro governments and Venezuelan opposition privately supported the move as a chance to break political deadlock, while others feared overt U.S. military intervention might revive Cold War-era “Monroe Doctrine” fears, worsening regional security.

Currently, former Vice President Rodríguez serves as interim president of Venezuela, cooperating with the U.S. while maintaining loyalty to the domestic ruling class, keeping the country relatively stable. For Trump, the goal of preventing other powers from gaining influence in the Americas and securing economic gains was achieved. Many Americans saw the raid as a demonstration of military strength, reinforcing Trump’s image as a decisive leader.

Trump’s Greenland Gambit

Since 2025, Trump has repeatedly brought Greenland into the spotlight, making it one of the most challenging and controversial topics of his second term.

Greenland, the world’s largest island, is under Danish sovereignty but enjoys local autonomy. Its location between North America and Europe along the Arctic shipping route has made it strategically valuable. Previously overlooked due to extreme cold, climate change and melting ice have expanded Arctic navigation, increasing Greenland’s military and technological importance. The island also contains vast deposits of rare earth and critical minerals, essential for modern technology and defense systems.

Trump’s assertive approach clearly aimed to maximize U.S. influence over Greenland. In 2025, he publicly expressed interest in buying Greenland and urged negotiations to secure it, even hinting at military options. This escalated tensions with Denmark and Europe.

European reactions were unanimous: Greenlandic leaders stated the island is “not for sale”, and massive protests erupted in Greenland and Denmark. The UK prime minister warned Trump that high tariffs or aggression would be a grave mistake, while EU countries—including Denmark, France, Germany, and the UK—supported Danish sovereignty. Even European far-right parties, traditionally aligned with Trump, criticized his Greenland strategy as overt aggression, causing internal rifts.

At the 2026 Davos World Economic Forum, Trump and NATO Secretary-General Rutte reached a “preliminary framework” focusing on Arctic security cooperation rather than territorial control. Trump framed it as safeguarding U.S. military bases and economic interests, while Denmark retained final authority. However, Greenland’s government stressed it was not fully involved in negotiations, highlighting an ongoing tension. Analysts debate whether this is a tactical retreat or pragmatic compromise.

Even with the temporary easing of tensions, U.S.–Europe trust has been strained, showing how far-reaching Trump’s assertive diplomacy has become.

Iran Unrest and U.S. Pressure

From late December 2025, Iran experienced nationwide protests, initially triggered by economic collapse, currency devaluation, and skyrocketing living costs, evolving into broad dissatisfaction with the regime. The government’s harsh crackdown led to casualties and arrests on a scale unseen since the 1979 Islamic Revolution.

The U.S., which maintains heavy sanctions against Iran citing terrorism sponsorship and nuclear/military threats, seized this moment to intervene. Trump publicly announced deploying a fleet—including aircraft carriers and missile destroyers—to the Persian Gulf to deter further escalation. He emphasized a preference for avoiding force but warned of potential military action if the regime continued violent repression.

Trump also communicated with Iranian protesters via public statements and social media, encouraging demonstrations and denouncing government violence. He canceled all official diplomatic talks until Tehran ceased the crackdown. While some protesters hoped for U.S. support, the absence of direct action led to frustration and feelings of abandonment.

Iranian Revolutionary Guard leaders warned that any U.S. strike would be considered a full-scale war. Protests and anti-U.S. imagery reflected strong resistance. Intelligence reports indicating a temporary halt in state violence led Trump to consider pausing military actions while closely monitoring the situation, balancing threats with cautious observation.

Trump’s strategy combined military presence and public warnings to pressure Tehran, deter large-scale killings, and strengthen U.S. influence in the Middle East. Yet this high-risk approach also raised the possibility of miscalculations, where tensions could escalate unintentionally, making the U.S. a target for criticism and resistance.

The “Board of Peace”

Traditionally, the U.S. has been seen as the global big brother. But with China’s growing influence and global economic support programs, U.S. presidents often feel impatient with Beijing’s increasing UN sway. Trump, ambitious and assertive, sought to take matters further.

At the 2026 Davos Forum, he launched the “Board of Peace”, initially proposed to address Gaza peace but now expanded to serve as a broader global conflict mediation mechanism. The initiative leverages U.S. influence to create an alternative diplomatic platform and invites multiple countries to participate.

However, critics question whether it is more for show than genuine peacekeeping. The EU’s concern lies less with the stated goals and more with the lack of clarity: the legal status, decision-making process, funding, and international law accountability remain unspecified. Unlike multilateral bodies like the UN or OSCE, this U.S.-backed, president-driven mechanism risks becoming a coercive tool rather than a genuine mediator.

The EU fears it could undermine Europe’s long-standing role in Middle East diplomacy, forcing it from rule-maker to follower. China was excluded, reflecting Trump’s view of Beijing as a competitor, not a partner. The Board aims to present participation as a political statement, effectively creating a U.S.-led bloc in global conflict mediation.

For Australia, the Board is a hot potato. Prime Minister Albanese received an invitation but has not confirmed participation. Several NATO and EU countries have declined, while Canada was disinvited over disagreements on China policy. Thirty-plus leaders who accepted include war actors like Putin and Israel’s Netanyahu. How they could effectively promote peace remains questionable, and handling the invitation diplomatically will test Albanese’s political skill.

Trump’s Diplomatic Logic

Across Gaza, Ukraine, Venezuela, Greenland, Iran, and the Board of Peace, Trump’s strategy is consistent: proactive engagement, pressure, disruption of norms, and forcing allies and adversaries to recalculate. He eschews slow multilateral negotiations in favor of military, economic, and media leverage, coupled with highly personalized decision-making, shifting power quickly at the negotiating table.

To Trump, diplomacy is a continuous game of strategy, not merely maintaining order. He pushes situations to the edge, then retreats strategically to gain advantage. While controversial and eroding trust among allies, it successfully recenters U.S. influence.

Crucially, Trump applies pressure not only to adversaries but to allies, forcing them to demonstrate loyalty or strategic value. This increases U.S. bargaining leverage but consumes trust capital, making international relations more transactional and short-term, and setting the stage for future friction.

Costs and Risks of Assertive Diplomacy

Reliance on pressure and uncertainty may yield short-term results but risks long-term instability. Highly personalized, low-institutional approaches erode trust in rules, procedures, and multilateral cooperation. Misjudgments are more likely in opaque, high-stakes situations. Allies and adversaries may misread threats, escalating conflict even without provocation.

Trump is reshaping U.S. diplomacy from guardian of order to rewriter of order, providing tactical flexibility but weakening institutional credibility. Whether the U.S. can balance assertive pressure with sustained trust will determine its long-term global leadership.

Ultimately, Trump’s strategy may open new strategic space for the U.S. or provoke deeper backlash and confrontation. One thing is certain: the international stage in 2026 is no longer the old world, and Trump is the key variable driving this structural transformation.

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