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COVID-19 Around the World

A dilemma with “zero covid” case

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Melbourne is emerging from its fourth lockdown of the pandemic, and many locals and businesses have been left wondering how many more they can take.

 As Australia’s vaccine rollout continues to accelerate, questions are being raised about how we can gradually move away from a world of zero tolerance for outbreaks.

And with a series of restrictions still in place, the recent lockdown has once again raised questions about the responses to outbreaks of COVID in the future, and whether it is time to tolerate some cases rather than zero.

Margie Danchin, an immunisation researcher at Murdoch Children’s Research Institute, said public support for lockdown is shifting, particularly in Melbourne.

“Portions of the community at the moment really want zero COVID, but other people are getting to the point where they are willing to accept a few cases in the community,” she told 7.30 of ABC.

“I can understand why the decision was made to have a snap lockdown in Victoria, but I think we now need to be looking at how this can be nuanced and how to do it better moving forward.

“I think for the foreseeable future, we do need to learn to live with COVID, but the sooner that we can increase vaccination coverage, the less we will have of these snap lockdowns.”

 

/ Margie Danchin , Murdoch Children’s Research Institute

 

Zero COVID is it achievable?

In the middle of last year, the National Cabinet reaffirmed the goal of having no community transmission – effectively zero COVID – when the Prime Minister and premiers declared that “the goal remains suppression of COVID-19 until a point in time a vaccine or effective treatments are available, with the goal of no local community transmission.”

This decision is what’s underpinned many of the calls by state health officials to go into strict lockdown, and to keep the borders closed. 

In the first few months of the pandemic, the purpose of lockdowns was to “flatten the curve”, to buy time for the healthcare system to prepare, and for contact tracing to get up to scratch.

We did so well at that, we overshot the mark.

“We stumbled our way to COVID zero,” said Brendan Crabb from the Burnet Institute.

“We found ourselves with an aggressive suppression strategy, leading unexpectedly to elimination in a bunch of states and territories.

“Through that recognition, [we] crept our way to a collective view that Australia really could eliminate community transmission.”

 

/ Brendan Crabb from the Burnet Institute

 

What is our goals 

Zero COVID is great in the short term — it has meant Australia has avoided the unnecessary and calamitous death tolls seen in places like the US, UK and India. But it will make it harder for Australia to exit the pandemic compared to other countries, according to the World Health Organisation.

Dr Michael Ryan, the Executive Director of the WHO Health Emergencies Programme, recently acknowledged the awkwardness that “zero COVID” countries like Australia now face as they ponder the transition from hermithood to a post-pandemic world.

“It is difficult decision now for many countries who have managed to keep a very low or a zero-COVID strategy in place for so long to open up again, with the possbilities – and in fact, the probability – that disease may be reimported from other countries in which the disease is not under control,” he said.

 

/ Dr Michael Ryan, the Executive Director of the WHO Health Emergencies Programme

 

/ James Merlino, Acting Premier of Victoria

 

Mr Merlino, Acting  Premier of Victoria, wasn’t prepared to put a number on what percentage of the population should be vaccinated before he’d take lockdowns off the table in future outbreaks.

“Every jump in the percentage of our population that is vaccinated, either fully vaccinated or at least having their first dose, is a step forward,” he said.

“At the moment, 2-3 per cent of our population is fully vaccinated, and less than a quarter have received a first dose.

But as the pandemic rages around the world, and pressure mounts to speed up the vaccination campaign and re-open borders, should our political leaders be starting the conversation about how much risk we are prepared to take?

 

A delicate balance

Leigh Sales put the issue to Scott Morrison a month ago when she asked: “Are political leaders going to have to have an honest conversation with Australians about what living with risk looks like?”

He responded: “That’s exactly the conversation that Australia’s government leaders are having through the National Cabinet.”

Apart from the occasional devastating hole in hotel quarantine, the biggest hole seems to be the lack of national coherence as the varying state strategies for dealing with outbreaks suggest.

 

/ Leigh Sales put the issue to Scott Morrison

 

/ NSW Premier Gladys Berejiklian

 

New South Wales Premier Gladys Berejiklian preferred to use localised lockdowns rather than shutting down an entire city or state.

“You shouldn’t burden your citizens any more than you need to,” Ms Berejiklian. 

 

” You shouldn’t instill fear to the extent where you take rights away from people unless you absolutely have to.”

 

She has been praised by her constituents for that approach, but so too have premiers who have achieved zero cases using harsher methods.

New South Wales Premier Gladys Berejiklian has been an outlier sticking to a consistent theme of keeping as much of the state open as possible.

 

Her way isn’t the only way

The ease with which WA Premier Mark McGowan and Queensland Premier Annastacia Palaszczuk were re-elected off the back of strict approaches to keeping COVID out of their states — especially through closed borders — shows that most of the public have been strongly in favour of strong measures to get to zero COVID. 

 

/  WA Premier Mark McGowan

 

/  Queensland Premier Annastacia Palaszczuk

 

And of course, that’s been shown by the public support for Victoria’s political leaders, despite 140 days of lockdowns in Melbourne compared to an average of six in other cities.

 

But how sustainable is our hard-earned “freedom”? And how does the business community now feel about it?

“The reality is we have to live with COVID. COVID is global. We cannot stay on an island forever trying to bat it away,” said Innes Willox, the head of Australian Industry Group.

 

/  Innes Willox, the head of Australian Industry Group

 

The Melbourne outbreak has highlighted an important questions that our political leaders still don’t seem prepared to answer just yet.

What percentage of our population needs to be vaccinated before we have reached “herd immunity” and lockdowns can be taken off the table? And do the states need to be in agreement on this figure?

That might be one for the next National Cabinet meeting.

 

 

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COVID-19 Around the World

Weekly news at a glance

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(Worldwide) Covid positive kids separated from parents in Shanghai

A hospital in Shanghai is sending COVID-positive children and parents to different quarantine facilities, an online debate has revealed. Unverified images of children, three-to-a-cot, being tended to by workers in hazmat suits circulated on the WeChat social media platform.

The centre accused of housing the children, the Shanghai Public Health Clinical Centre in the city’s Jinshan district, took to the social media site to debunk the rumours, but in doing so confirmed the existence of the quarantine site.

It added it had organised for more paediatric workers and would strengthen communication with the children’s parents in the wake of criticism from parents whose children have been housed in the facility.

 

(Worldwide) U.S. drops COVID testing for air travelers

In one of the most anticipated travel developments this year, the US Centers for Disease Control and Prevention is poised to lift its requirement for travelers to test negative for Covid-19 before entering the United States, CNN learned on Friday.

The measure has been in place since January 2021. The move is likely to encourage travelers around the world to plan a summer vacation in the States and encourage more US travelers to venture abroad knowing they’re less likely to get stranded overseas with a positive test. Air travel has been far from smooth this season so far.

 

(Worldwide) Face of Hospitality in the Post-Covid World

Studies show that consumer spending on discretionary items like travel, eating out, entertainment etc would stay low and focus would stay on the basics like groceries, internet and mobile services etc. This indicates that there is still time for the hospitality industry to reach its glory of the pre-pandemic times. Similarly, those businesses that depend on the travel and tourism sector are likely to suffer the lul.

Hotels depend heavily on the revenue they generate from business travelers. But, given the current scenario, that too will take time to recover. With the death of many organizations that funded such business travel, it is likely that about 5-10% of it would never return. This makes it imperative that the businesses keep a close watch on the trends that determine the future of the hospitality and tourism industry and plan accordingly.

 

(AUS) Tutors in high demand, but doubts on program for next year

The state government’s 480 million dollar coronavirus catch-up tutoring program has been compromised by teacher shortages, due to COVID and influenza. The program aimed to benefit all government and low-fee private schools in helping students whose learning stalled during the pandemic.

According to Andrew Dalgleish, president of the Victorian Principals Association, most schools were forced to replace sick staff with the tutors to take whole classes. Victorian government awaits a final report before considering if it will recommit to the program.

 

(AUS) COVID-19 vaccine booster available for at-risk children aged 12 to 15

Children aged 12 to 15 years, who are severely immunocompromised and children with a disability, are eligible for a COVID-19 booster vaccine from this week. The Australian Technical Advisory Group on Immunisation has recommended extending eligibility for the Pfizer booster to about 120-thousand children.

Those eligible must have received their second dose at least three months ago, be severely immunocompromised, have a disability, or complex health conditions which increase the risk of severe COVID-19. Children who are NOT considered at-risk, who have received two vaccine doses, are still considered to be well protected against severe disease.

 

(AUS) Free flu vaccinations for Victoria

Free flu vaccinations are available to anyone aged 6 months and over until 30 June. Everyone aged 6 months and older is recommended to get the flu vaccine, especially people aged 65 years and over, people at higher risk of serious illness of complications from flu, pregnant women and children under 5 years.

The COVID-19 vaccine does not protect you against flu, you still need to get the flu vaccine. The best protection for families and communities this winter is to get vaccinated against both flu and COVID-19.

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COVID-19 Around the World

Covid in North Korea

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Top North Korean officials discussed revising anti-epidemic restrictions on Sunday as they assessed the situation over the country’s first acknowledged COVID-19 outbreak was “improving”, state media reported.

A politburo meeting guided by leader Kim Jong Un “made a positive evaluation of the pandemic situation being controlled and improved across the country and discussed the issues of continuously stabilising and improving the overall anti-epidemic situation,” said KCNA news agency.

North Korea reported no new deaths among fever patients for a second consecutive day, and said 89,500 more people showed fever symptoms on Sunday.

That is down from nearly 400,000 about 11 days ago.

The isolated country has been fighting an unprecedented COVID wave since declaring a state of emergency and imposing a nationwide lockdown this month, fuelling concerns about lack of vaccines, medical supplies and food.

Efforts to strengthen anti-epidemic measures were being taken across North Korea, including collecting rain water, examining virus-resistant medicines and setting up quarantine places, KCNA said.

Many outside experts say North Korea is clearly understating its fatality rate to prevent any political damage to Kim at home.

They say North Korea should have suffered many more deaths because its 26 million people are largely unvaccinated against COVID-19 and it lacks the capacity to treat patients with critical conditions.

Others suspect North Korea might have exaggerated its earlier fever cases to try to strengthen its internal control of its population.

Since its May 12 admission of the Omicron outbreak, North Korea has only been announcing the number of patients with feverish symptoms daily, but not those with COVID-19, apparently because of a shortage of test kits to confirm coronavirus cases in large numbers.

But many outside health experts view most of the reported fever cases as COVID-19, saying North Korean authorities would know how to distinguish the symptoms from fevers caused by other prevalent infectious diseases.

The outbreak has forced North Korea to impose a nationwide lockdown, isolate all work and residential units from one another and ban region-to-region movements.

The country still allows key agricultural, construction and other industrial activities, but the toughened restrictions have triggered worries about its food insecurity and a fragile economy already hit hard by pandemic-caused border shutdowns.

Some observers say North Korea will likely soon declare victory over COVID-19 and credit it to Kim’s leadership.

Yang Un-chul, an analyst at the private Sejong Institute in South Korea, said the North’s recently elevated restrictions must be dealing a serious blow to its coal, agricultural and other labour-intensive industrial sectors.

But he said those difficulties won’t likely develop to a level that threatens Mr Kim’s grip on power, as the COVID-19 outbreak and strengthened curbs have given him a chance to boost his control of his people.

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COVID-19 Around the World

Shanghai ease Covid isolation

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A partial reopening of stores and offices in Beijing on Sunday was welcomed by a weary populace and struggling shopkeepers eager for life to return to normal. Coupled with a gradual easing of restrictions in Shanghai, it signalled the worst was over in the twin outbreaks in China’s most prominent cities.

More people have been allowed out of their homes, and more businesses are permitted to reopen, although most residents remain largely confined to their housing compounds, with shops mainly limited to deliveries.

Restaurants remain closed in Beijing, except for takeout and delivery, and many people in Shanghai still can only go out with special passes and for a limited time period, even as the number of new cases has plummeted. Shanghai aims to essentially end its lockdown from Wednesday after relaxing restrictions over the past week. 

Shanghai officials urged continued vigilance, even though the vast majority of its 25 million residents live in areas that are in the lowest-risk “prevention” category.

“Wear masks in public, no gathering and keep social distance,” Shanghai Municipal Health Commission’s deputy director, Zhao Dandan, told a daily news conference.

China reports 362 new cases

On Friday, Shanghai’s suburban Fengxian district cancelled a requirement for residents to have a pass to go out.

The state-run Shanghai Securities News reported modest steps towards a return to normality for the financial sector, with the more-than-10,000 bankers and traders who have been living and working in their offices since the start of lockdown gradually returning home.

On Saturday, the country reported 362 daily COVID-19 cases, down from 444 a day earlier. In Beijing, new Friday infections fell to 24 from 29.

While Shanghai officials reported one community-level case in the Songjiang district, they expressed confidence in the steps they were taking to trace and control the infection chain.

“If these measures are implemented effectively, we can prevent a rebound of the epidemic, even if there are sporadic cases, so don’t worry,” Shanghai Centre for Disease Control and Prevention’s deputy director, Sun Xiaodong, said.

Beijing officials say outbreak ‘effectively under control’

In Beijing, new cases have trended lower for six days, with no fresh infections outside of quarantine areas reported on Friday.

The outbreak that began on April 22 is “effectively under control”, a city government spokesman told a news conference.

Starting on Sunday, shopping malls, libraries, museums, theatres and gyms will be allowed to reopen — with limits on the numbers of people allowed — in the eight of Beijing’s 16 districts that have seen no community cases for seven consecutive days.

Two of the districts will end work-from-home rules, while public transportation will largely resume in three districts, including Chaoyang, the city’s largest.

While nationwide case numbers are improving, China’s strict adherence to its “zero-COVID” strategy has devastated the world’s second-largest economy and rattled global supply chains.

The lockdowns and other restrictions under China’s “zero-COVID” strategy have increasingly frustrated residents as they see other countries ease up and re-open their borders. 

Some have resisted and staged protests at apartment complexes and university dormitories, in an authoritarian country where people think twice about speaking out publicly because of possible repercussions.

Officials tend to err on the side of caution under a system that readily punishes them for lax enforcement if outbreaks flare up or come back.

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