Features
How a Deadly Flash Flood Exposed the Himalayas’ Climate Crisis
Published
1 month agoon
On August 26, a massive glacier and mountainside collapse struck the Himalayan region along the border between Nepal and Tibet, China. Huge volumes of ice, rock, soil and floodwater surged downstream through the river valleys at high speed, destroying roads, bridges, homes and hydropower infrastructure.
The disaster occurred in a high-altitude, mountainous area with extremely complex terrain, making rescue operations exceptionally difficult. As of August 31, the reported numbers of deaths and missing people in Nepal and Tibet were still rising rapidly, with figures varying between different sources. According to Reuters, the death toll had approached 800, while more than 3,000 people remained missing. Many of those missing were hydropower workers, local residents and travellers making pilgrimages to the Himalayas.
What makes this disaster particularly shocking is not only the scale of the destruction, but the fact that it occurred in an environment that is changing rapidly.
Scientists have long warned that global warming is making high-altitude regions increasingly unstable. Glacier retreat, thawing permafrost, changes in mountain structures, and the growing number of unstable glacial lakes may all increase the risk of landslides, ice avalanches and floods that were once relatively rare.
In other words, this is not a disaster that can simply be understood as “ice suddenly melting on the mountain.” It is more like a warning sign: when climate change begins to alter an entire mountain range, it is never only the ice on the mountains that is affected. The entire lifeline made up of mountains, rivers, farmland, cities, dams and people is affected as well.
And this lifeline connects nearly two billion people across Asia.
The “Third Pole” Is Losing Its Ice
When people talk about global warming, the Arctic and Antarctic are usually the first places that come to mind. Shrinking Arctic sea ice and collapsing Antarctic ice shelves have become some of the most recognisable images of climate change. But in another part of the world lies another vast frozen region.
Stretching from Afghanistan and Pakistan through India, China, Nepal and Bhutan, the Hindu Kush Himalaya contains the largest reserves of snow and ice outside the Arctic and Antarctic, and is therefore often referred to as the “Third Pole.”
These glaciers are not simply enormous blocks of ice sitting on mountains. They form a vast natural reservoir. Snow accumulates during winter and gradually melts during the warmer seasons, supplying water to rivers downstream. Many of Asia’s major rivers are connected to this high-mountain snow and ice system, including the Indus, Ganges, Brahmaputra, Mekong, Yangtze and Yellow rivers. This means that the ice in the Himalayas ultimately flows toward some of the most densely populated regions in Asia.
The problem is that this natural reservoir is shrinking. Research published in 2026 by the International Centre for Integrated Mountain Development (ICIMOD) shows that glacier loss across the Hindu Kush Himalaya has accelerated significantly since 2000, with the rate of ice loss now roughly twice what it was before 2000. Between 1990 and 2020, the region’s glacier area decreased by around 12%, while estimated ice volume fell by approximately 9%.
Even more concerning is that these changes are not happening at a steady rate. They are accelerating.
ICIMOD points out that only a small proportion of glaciers currently have long-term monitoring data that meet global standards. This means that although scientists already know conditions are worsening, there is still insufficient data to determine exactly how quickly changes are occurring in some areas. This is one reason why the crisis at the “Third Pole” can be easily overlooked.
Changes in the Arctic and Antarctic can be shown directly to the world through satellite images. But Himalayan glaciers are separated by mountain peaks thousands of metres high, narrow river valleys and remote terrain. As glaciers gradually become thinner, the changes often do not immediately attract global attention.
Until ice, rock and water suddenly come crashing down a valley together.
The Conditions for Mountain Collapse Are Changing
When discussing this disaster, it is also important to avoid an oversimplified explanation: not every flash flood can simply be described as being “caused by global warming.” Landslides and glacier collapses are usually the result of multiple interacting factors, including geological structure, rainfall, snowmelt, glacier fractures, rock stability and earthquakes.
Preliminary research into this disaster suggests that a massive collapse involving both glacier ice and bedrock produced a high-speed flow of ice, rock and soil, which eventually developed into a devastating flood. The collapse even generated seismic signals equivalent to a magnitude 5.2 earthquake.
But another issue deserves even greater attention.
Climate change is altering the underlying conditions in high-mountain regions. As temperatures rise and glaciers retreat, terrain that was once stabilised by ice and snow becomes increasingly exposed. Thawing permafrost may also weaken the stability of rocks and mountain slopes. At the same time, melting glaciers can create or enlarge glacial lakes, some of which are naturally dammed by loose glacial debris known as moraines.
If one of these natural dams breaks, enormous amounts of water can be released downstream within a very short period, creating what is known as a Glacial Lake Outburst Flood, or GLOF. Climate change may therefore not be the sole cause of any individual landslide, but it may be making the entire high-mountain environment increasingly fragile. And this growing vulnerability can ultimately be transmitted through rivers to places hundreds of kilometres away.
A Dangerous Paradox
One of the most easily misunderstood aspects of the Himalayan glacier crisis is that the phrase “melting glaciers” sounds as though it should mean there will be more water.
In the short term, that may indeed be true. As glaciers melt more quickly, more water flows into rivers. Some river basins may therefore enter what scientists call “Peak Water,” the stage at which glacier meltwater reaches its maximum level.
But glaciers are not unlimited reservoirs. As the volume of ice continues to shrink, there will eventually be less ice available to melt during the summer. Once glaciers retreat beyond a certain point, the amount of water rivers receive from them will actually begin to decline.
This creates a seemingly contradictory future: in the short term, there may be too much water; in the long term, there may not be enough.
This transition is especially important for rivers that depend heavily on glacier meltwater.
During dry and hot seasons, glacier meltwater often plays an important role in maintaining a stable base flow in rivers. As glaciers gradually disappear, river flows may become increasingly seasonal and extreme. Water levels may surge during the rainy season, while stable water supplies become scarce during the dry season. This means the problem facing the Himalayas is not simply the next flood.
The real long-term question is whether, once glaciers retreat beyond a critical point, people downstream will discover that the natural reservoir they have always relied on no longer holds enough water.
From Flash Floods to the Dinner Table
These hydrological changes will first affect mountain communities. Farmers need stable water supplies for irrigation, cities rely on rivers for drinking water, hydropower stations require consistent flows, while mountain roads, bridges and electricity transmission infrastructure are often built along river valleys. A single river can therefore support agriculture, cities, energy and transport at the same time.
When floods suddenly increase, farmland, roads and dams may be destroyed. When water levels fall during the dry season, agriculture and hydropower generation may also suffer. This is particularly important for food security across Asia.
The river systems of the Hindu Kush Himalaya support an enormous agricultural population. For downstream countries, the issue is not simply whether water exists, but when it arrives, how quickly it arrives, and whether it can be stored and used. If the rainy season and snowmelt period bring more floods, while the growing season or dry season experiences water shortages, agriculture may face both “too much water” and “too little water” at the same time.
The same is true for hydropower. The Himalayan region has enormous hydropower potential, and Nepal, India and Tibet in China have all invested heavily in related projects. However, hydropower plants are often located in narrow river valleys, which are themselves high-risk areas for flash floods, debris flows and landslides.
This disaster once again highlights the contradiction: humans hope to obtain lower-carbon energy through hydropower, yet as the high-mountain climate becomes more extreme, energy infrastructure designed according to historical hydrological data may face entirely new risks.
For Australia, This Is Not “Someone Else’s Disaster”
The Himalayas may seem so far from Australia that it is difficult to imagine any direct connection between the two. Australia does not have massive Himalayan-style glaciers, nor would the melting of a glacier in Nepal directly cause flooding in Australia.
But that does not mean Australia is unaffected. On the contrary, this disaster provides a clear example of why climate risks today can no longer be understood purely within national borders.
The First Connection Is Australia’s Place in the Indo-Pacific
Australia is itself an Indo-Pacific country. Climate disasters across South Asia, Southeast Asia and the Pacific can ultimately affect Australia through food, energy, trade, population movements and humanitarian crises.
When changes in Himalayan glaciers alter the amount of water flowing through Asian rivers, countries such as India, Nepal, Pakistan, Bangladesh and others may be affected first. But these countries are also important diplomatic, economic, trade and strategic partners for Australia. The Australian Government has long regarded climate change as an important security and development issue in the Indo-Pacific and has incorporated climate resilience, food security and water management into regional cooperation.
There is a very practical reason behind this: a climate disaster in one country does not necessarily remain within that country.
Declining agricultural production can affect commodity prices. Floods can damage ports and roads. Energy shortages can push up costs. Long-term water shortages may force people to leave their homes. Eventually, all of these changes can enter global supply chains.
The Second Connection Is That Australia Is Facing Its Own Climate Challenges
Australia’s challenges are, of course, completely different from those of the Himalayas. But they share one extremely important feature: water resources are becoming increasingly unstable.
Australia’s Bureau of Meteorology has stated that climate change is increasing drought risks in some regions. In southern Australia in particular, a warmer climate can make droughts more frequent or severe, while cool-season rainfall has declined in some areas over recent decades.
At the same time, Australia is also experiencing extreme rainfall and flooding. Data from the Australian Government’s State of the Environment report shows that the intensity of short-duration extreme rainfall has increased in some areas in recent years, while daily rainfall associated with thunderstorms has also increased compared with 1979.
Australia is therefore not simply moving from “water shortages” to “more water.” Instead, it may increasingly experience both extremes: long periods without enough rain, followed by too much rainfall in a very short period.
This has a certain similarity to the paradox of “flooding and long-term water shortages” now facing the Himalayas. The geography of the two regions is completely different, but the underlying problem is the same. Cities, farms, dams and transport systems were built around relatively stable historical climate conditions. Now, those historical averages themselves are becoming less reliable.
The Third Connection Is Australia’s Agriculture and Food Security
Australia is one of the world’s major agricultural exporters. On the surface, Australia could appear to be a “beneficiary” of a global water crisis. If other major agricultural producers experience declining output because of water shortages, demand for Australian exports could even increase.
But the situation is not so simple.
Australian agriculture itself depends heavily on water, and the global food market is an interconnected system. If densely populated agricultural regions in Asia are disrupted by changes to glaciers and rivers, global food prices and trade patterns may also be affected. The challenges facing Australian farmers would then extend beyond local water supply. Could global market prices fluctuate sharply? Will demand from Asian buyers change? Could certain agricultural products see higher demand because production has declined elsewhere? Could energy, fertiliser and transport costs be affected by climate disasters?
This is why climate change should not be understood as merely a local weather issue for Australian agriculture. It is also a global market issue.
The Fourth Connection Is Energy and Infrastructure
Australia is also rapidly expanding renewable energy. Low-carbon energy sources such as solar, wind and hydropower are seen as important parts of the energy transition. But climate change also reminds us that energy systems cannot focus only on “how to reduce carbon emissions.” They must also consider whether they can continue operating under extreme climate conditions.
Hydropower stations in the Himalayas may face flash floods and debris flows. Australia may face bushfires, heatwaves, floods, droughts and extreme storms. This means future energy infrastructure needs to meet two conditions at the same time: it must be low-carbon, and it must be resilient.
If an energy facility can reduce emissions but cannot withstand future extreme weather, then it may still become part of the climate risk itself.
This lesson is particularly important for Australia, because the country is currently at a critical stage of its energy-system transition.
The Fifth Connection Is That Australia Cannot Treat Climate Change as Only an Environmental Policy Issue
This may be the most important lesson the Himalayan disaster offers Australia. In the past, discussions of climate change in Australia have often focused on emissions reduction, energy policy and environmental protection. But the impacts of climate change have already extended far beyond environmental policy. They involve diplomacy, defence, agriculture, energy, infrastructure, migration, humanitarian assistance and national security.
Australian parliamentary research has identified climate change as an important security risk in the Pacific region, while the Australian Government continues to support climate adaptation and resilience in Pacific countries through regional cooperation.
The same logic can be extended to South Asia.
If the Himalayan water crisis continues to worsen, Australia may in the future face greater regional humanitarian assistance demands, more complicated diplomatic coordination and greater pressure in managing cross-border disasters.
And this is not simply a government issue. Australian society itself has deep connections with South Asia. A large number of Australian residents have South Asian backgrounds, and extensive family, business, education and tourism networks connect the two regions.
This disaster has already provided a very direct reminder of that connection. Although it occurred in the Himalayas, Australians were also among those reported missing or affected. As of August 31, the Australian Government was providing consular assistance and participating in related rescue and aid efforts, while Australian media reported that dozens of Australians were missing in the disaster. Climate risks, therefore, will only become increasingly globalised.
What We Really Need to Watch
Perhaps the most unsettling aspect of this disaster is not how many roads, bridges and homes it destroyed, but the fact that it gave us a brief glimpse of a world that is usually difficult to see.
Thousands of metres above sea level, glaciers are shrinking and mountains are changing. Yet when ice and rock suddenly collapse, the consequences may be felt by villages, cities, farmland and hydropower stations tens or even hundreds of kilometres away.
This is one of the most easily misunderstood aspects of climate change. It is not simply a change in global average temperature. It is a chain reaction: melting glaciers can create dangerous glacial lakes; a glacial lake outburst can become a flash flood; a flash flood can destroy hydropower stations and roads, affecting energy supplies and the economy; long-term glacier retreat can reduce dry-season water supplies; agricultural water shortages can turn into problems of food prices and supply; when people lose access to land and water, they may begin to migrate; and when rivers cross national borders, water resources can become issues of diplomacy and security.
All of this can begin with a small piece of ice at the top of a mountain.
What is happening in the Himalayas, therefore, should not be understood simply as a disaster in Nepal or Tibet. It is a glimpse of the changes taking place across the Third Pole. Ice is disappearing in the Arctic and Antarctic, while Asia’s high-mountain glaciers are also retreating at an accelerating rate. ICIMOD has warned that current glacier loss already poses a long-term threat to water security across Asia.
For Australia, perhaps the greatest lesson from this disaster is not whether Australia will experience the same kind of flash flood. Australia faces its own climate risks, including droughts, heatwaves, extreme rainfall, floods, bushfires and sea-level rise.
All of these risks are reminding us of the same thing: the climate of the past may not be the climate of the future.
When cities, agriculture, energy systems and national policies continue to be designed around what was considered “normal” over the past several decades, the greatest danger may not be a single extreme event, but the gradual transformation of extreme events into the new normal.
The ice in the Himalayas will not flow directly to Australia. But water crises, food risks, population movements, supply-chain disruptions and regional security challenges caused by climate change can cross national borders and eventually reach Australia.
That is why, when the world once again turns its attention to the flash floods in Nepal and Tibet, what we need to look at is not only what the floodwaters have swept away. We also need to look up at the mountain range that is gradually losing its ice and snow. Because when the “Third Pole” begins to melt, it is never just one mountain that changes.
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Imagine a Sunday afternoon in a living room in Richmond, Melbourne. An elder calls their grandchild to dinner in Hakka, mixing in a few Portuguese words, and the grandchild responds in English. This elder was born in East Timor, has Chinese ancestry, and now lives in Australia. If someone asked, “Where are you from?”, they would probably have to think for a moment before knowing where to begin: Hakka, Chinese, East Timorese, or Australian?
Hakka people are generally regarded as a linguistic and cultural group within the Han Chinese, yet for centuries they were often called “guests” by the Han Chinese around them. “Guest” means you are not someone who was originally from here; “home” means you have already put down roots. This contradiction is one of the most important aspects of Hakka history to understand. And when these “guests” migrate again to Australia, how do they redefine where they belong? This question is in fact also an issue that Australian society faces today.
If They Are All Han Chinese, Why Were They Still Divided into “Local” and “Guest”?
The most common account of Hakka history is that their ancestors migrated south from the Central Plains because of warfare, passing through Jiangxi and Fujian to Guangdong, before later moving overseas. But modern research reminds us that this was not a group of people with a pure lineage moving in an orderly fashion. Rather, it was a community that gradually formed through migration, language and competition over local resources.
In parts of southern China, those who settled earlier were known as the “locals” (Punti), while those who arrived later were called “guests”. Flat and fertile land was already controlled by established clans, so later arrivals could only develop the hilly and mountainous areas. As a result, they developed close clan organisations and fortified communal residences for defence. In the mid-19th century, Guangdong also saw large-scale armed conflicts between the “locals” and “guests”. This shows that even when people belong to the same Han Chinese group, differences in language and clan, and competition for the same land, can turn people into “us” and “them”.
When a place could no longer accommodate everyone, another option was to leave again. Hakka history describes a group of people who repeatedly became outsiders, and how, wherever they went, they built a home again.
Hakka People Were Already in Australia’s Goldfields
During the Australian gold rush of the 1850s, large numbers of Chinese people travelled from southern China to Victoria and New South Wales. By 1861, there were more than 38,000 Chinese people across Australia, accounting for about 3.3% of the non-Indigenous population. Today, it is easy to collectively describe them as “Cantonese”, but the Chinese communities at the time were actually highly diverse.
Most came from the Siyi (Taishan, Kaiping, Xinhui and Enping) and Sanyi areas of the Pearl River Delta in Guangdong, and spoke different Cantonese dialects. At the same time, there were also significant numbers of Hakka people. Historical records from Victoria’s goldfields show that Chinese miners spoke more than ten languages or dialects, with Hakka being one of them. Some Hakka people came from counties different from those of the Cantonese communities, and had differences in language, customs and clan networks. In fact, the existing “local–guest” tensions in southern China were sometimes also brought onto the goldfields, showing that even among Chinese people, internal boundaries still existed.
But what the colonial government and mainstream white society cared about was not whether you were Hakka, Siyi or Cantonese. To them, everyone was first and foremost “Chinese”. In 1855, Victoria began imposing an entry tax on Chinese people and established the Chinese Protectorate, placing Chinese people in designated camps for management. In 1861, serious anti-Chinese riots broke out at Lambing Flat in New South Wales, today known as Young. When the federation was established in 1901, the White Australia policy put exclusion into law.
This created a contrast in identity: in southern China, Hakka people were constantly reminded that they were different from the locals; in Australia, the outside society instead grouped everyone together, and into a group that was excluded. Internal boundaries that had originally been important suddenly became smaller in another country, but they did not disappear completely.
East Timorese Hakka: A Forgotten Part of History
By the latter half of the 20th century, Australia welcomed another particularly distinctive group of Hakka migrants: Chinese people from East Timor.
The history of Chinese people in East Timor can be traced back hundreds of years. Early Chinese merchants travelled to Timor through the sandalwood trade. Later, increasing numbers of Chinese people from southern China settled there, and Hakka people gradually became the main group within the local Chinese community. Before the Indonesian invasion in 1975, there were around 20,000 Chinese people in East Timor, many of them Hakka. They retained the Hakka language, Chinese festivals and family culture, but their places of birth, life experiences and social relationships had become closely connected with East Timor, forming an East Timorese Chinese community with its own history.
1975 was a turning point in the fate of this community. After Portugal ended its colonial rule, East Timor fell into political turmoil, and in December of the same year, Indonesian forces invaded. The Chinese community was severely affected. Some people were killed, property was destroyed, and large numbers of families fled. It is estimated that in the early stages of the invasion, several hundred Hakka people were killed in Dili alone.
Their escape routes were highly dispersed. Some first went to other parts of Indonesia; some travelled through Portugal, Macau or Taiwan before moving on to Australia; others arrived directly in Darwin by sea. After 1975, the first wave saw more than 2,500 East Timorese people, including large numbers of Hakka Chinese, arrive in Australia. Later, between 1979 and 1986, nearly 5,000 more people came to Australia through a special humanitarian program, most seeking to reunite with family members. They mainly settled in Sydney, while significant numbers also settled in Melbourne and Darwin. Areas around Richmond and Flemington in Melbourne gradually developed more visible communities.
These East Timorese Hakka migrants brought not only the Hakka language and Chinese culture, but also shared memories of war, exile and the independence movement. They established their own community organisations in Australia, worked to maintain their language and culture, and also actively participated in activities supporting East Timorese independence. Compared with other Chinese communities, they often placed greater emphasis on their distinctive identity as “East Timorese Hakka”, rather than simply integrating into the broader “Chinese” or “Chinese migrant” community.
This reminds us that “Hakka” has never necessarily been tied to a particular country or piece of land. What has truly been passed down is often language, family memory, and the community relationships that remain after repeated migrations.
Does the “Local–Guest” Divide Still Matter in Australia?
Australia’s Hakka people came at different times: pioneers of the gold rush, refugees from East Timor, and more recent international students and skilled migrants. Although they may all have Hakka backgrounds, they have not necessarily formed a unified Hakka community.
The reason lies in Australia itself. When survival is no longer dependent on “who arrived first” or “who is local”, this boundary loses its strongest foundation. Hakka people from the gold rush era gradually integrated into the broader Chinese and Australian societies over generations. East Timorese Hakka people formed closer communities through their shared language and experiences of exile, but the next generation likewise grew up in English-language education. In recent years, people with Hakka backgrounds have generally first entered the circles of new migrants or professionals.
Hakka people have not disappeared, but Hakka identity is becoming increasingly dispersed. Perhaps what is truly fading is not the Hakka people, but the boundary that once divided people into “locals” and “guests”.
However, saying that Australia has completely eliminated the distinction between locals and guests would be too optimistic. The original owners of this land are Indigenous peoples. From this perspective, all later arrivals, including Chinese people, are “guests” on this land. From the anti-Chinese discrimination of the gold rush era to the fact that some Asians are still told today to “go back to where you came from”, it shows that the question of “who counts as one of us” does not automatically disappear.
What the Hakka Story Can Teach Australia Today
Australia itself is a society made up of many migrant communities. Irish, Italian, Greek, Vietnamese, Lebanese, Chinese, Indian and other communities that arrived at different times have all faced similar questions: after how many generations does an outsider stop being an outsider? Can a person belong to several places at the same time?
Hakka history does not offer a simple answer. What is interesting is that the name “Hakka”, which originally carried the meaning of being an outsider, was ultimately actively embraced by many people. A name that was once used to say “you are not from here” became “this is who I am”.
Today’s Australia does not need different ethnic groups from around the world to each form new Hakka-like communities. What we need more is a set of shared Australian values accumulated over generations and genuinely embraced by newcomers. These values are not the cultures, customs or lifestyles of our places of origin, but the basic principles that every migrant publicly expresses their commitment to and support for when becoming a citizen: democracy and the rule of law, equality of opportunity, respect for others, and the ability to live together amid differences.
How Should Australian Society Respond to Different “Hakka”?
Looking back at these different “Hakka”, we find that there is almost no single common form. This reminds us that there is no single “Hakka community” that can be understood through one label. Likewise, there is no single “Chinese community” or “migrant community”.
The question is not a binary choice between “assimilation or preserving everything separately”. The lesson from Hakka history is that identities can overlap. The real question is: what connects people across these different identities?
Two Pillars: Shared Values and Intercultural Contact
The first pillar is shared Australian values. This does not require everyone to give up their existing languages and cultures, but rather a set of basic principles that everyone is willing to follow and that everyone is protected by: democracy and the rule of law, freedom of speech and religion, gender equality, respect for differences, and the “Fair Go” principle that everyone should have equal opportunities. Without a common framework, diversity can easily become everyone talking past one another. With it, Hakka people can speak Hakka while also saying: this is my country.
The second pillar is genuine intercultural contact between different communities. Going to school together, working together, volunteering and participating in community activities are often more effective than relying solely on slogans.
Intercultural Democracy
The concept of “intercultural democracy” being advocated today combines these two pillars: within a shared democratic and values-based framework, allowing different cultural communities not merely to coexist, but to genuinely interact with one another and participate together in public affairs.
Multiculturalism recognises and respects differences, and this is an important starting point. But if it stops at preserving communities separately, different groups may still remain unfamiliar with one another. Intercultural democracy needs to take one further step, allowing people from different backgrounds to discuss, decide and take responsibility together on an equal basis.
This is the direction that Australia needs to continue discussing today, and one that needs people to speak clearly about in parliament. When some people once again advocate for a “return to a single culture”, we need to remember that what can truly make society stable is not eliminating differences, but building a framework in which differences can coexist and move forward together.
Conclusion
The Hakka people’s centuries-long history of migration is a history of “how to go from being a guest to becoming one of the people who belong”. Australia does not need to repeat those costs.
When facing all kinds of newcomers and later arrivals, the answer is neither to make everyone the same nor to allow every group to build its own fortified village around itself. Instead, we need to establish two things: a set of Australian values that everyone follows together, and a social environment where different communities can genuinely meet, talk and work together. This is intercultural democracy.
In such a society, “local” and “guest” would no longer determine who has the right to stay, but would become roles of mutual respect. Everyone can be a guest in someone else’s home, and can also be a host in their own community, while becoming fellow travellers on this shared land.
If the centuries-long migration of the Hakka people tells us anything, it is perhaps this: “guest” and “home” were never necessarily two opposing things.
Features
Britain Talks Division: Could Australia Have Another Western Australia?
Published
2 weeks agoon
October 6, 2026If a place has its own government, parliament, as well as a unique history, culture and identity, could it one day choose to leave the country it belongs to?
This question has recently once again become a focus of British politics. On September 14, political leaders from Scotland, Wales and Northern Ireland held a summit and signed a joint memorandum, collectively putting forward demands for self-determination and calling for greater powers for each region to decide its own constitutional future.
These remarks may carry an element of political declaration, but the issue they reflect is not limited to the United Kingdom. When regional governments, parliaments and identities gradually take shape, where should the boundary of power between regions and the central government lie? If self-determination and independence are brought back onto the political agenda across the UK, could an Australian state one day also leave the federation?
Different Histories, Different Identities
To understand why the UK has seen this debate over independence and self-determination, it is first necessary to understand that the UK itself was not a country gradually built around a single nation and a single political centre. England, Scotland, Wales and Northern Ireland each have different histories, cultures and political identities.
Scotland was originally an independent kingdom, with its own legal system, educational traditions and political history. It was not until 1707 that it united with England to form the Kingdom of Great Britain. Wales, meanwhile, was conquered by England and incorporated into its rule at the end of the 13th century, and its language and cultural traditions also came under pressure. Northern Ireland was also occupied by England and experienced a long history of British rule, population movements, religious divisions and political conflict.
For Scotland, Wales and Northern Ireland, regional identity already has deep historical and cultural roots. Political demands for autonomy or independence have, to some extent, also been built on these existing identities. Regional identity did not suddenly emerge because of political disputes in recent years, but has long existed within society.
In other words, today’s UK is a country formed through the long-term political integration of different historical communities, and these histories themselves have shaped how local societies understand identity, power and central rule. When these identities come into conflict with the power of the central government, cultural policies or national identity, existing regional identities may further develop into political demands for autonomy, self-determination, or even independence.
Devolution
This history also influenced Britain’s later political system. Beginning in the 1990s, the UK introduced “devolution”, establishing regional parliaments and governments in Scotland, Wales and Northern Ireland and transferring some domestic powers back to the regions. Policies on education, healthcare and transport, among others, can in part be decided by local governments, while foreign affairs, defence and matters concerning the UK’s overall constitutional arrangements remain largely under the control of Westminster.
Devolution was originally intended to give regions greater autonomy, but it also made regional political identities more visible. Once regions had their own parliaments and governments and could handle many policies themselves, demands for further powers, and even political space to discuss independence, also increased. Scotland held an independence referendum in 2014. At the time, 55% of voters supported remaining in the UK, while 45% supported independence, but the issue of independence did not disappear as a result.
In recent years, nationalist parties in Scotland, Wales and Northern Ireland have gained greater political influence, bringing this constitutional debate back into focus. The political objectives of the three regions are not exactly the same. Scotland and Wales mainly debate independence, while Northern Ireland involves Irish reunification. But all three share one common demand: that the central government should further recognise the regions’ right to determine their own constitutional futures.
The Differences Between Local Autonomy in the UK and Australia
Looking back at Australia, we can also see a similar institutional arrangement. Scotland, Wales and Northern Ireland have their own parliaments and governments, while Australia’s states also have their own state governments and parliaments.
The key difference worth comparing is the position these regional governments occupy within the overall national system. Scotland, Wales and Northern Ireland have gained a certain degree of autonomy within the sovereign state of the UK through devolution. Australia’s six states, by contrast, are themselves important components of the federal system, with the powers of state governments divided and protected by the Australian Constitution. In other words, both sides have regional autonomy, but the historical and constitutional foundations that created this autonomy are different.
What makes Australia particularly distinctive is that, in addition to the federal and state levels, there are also local governments, creating three levels of government: federal, state and local. Each level is responsible for different areas of affairs, allowing political power to be distributed across different levels. For ordinary residents, issues such as education, healthcare and public transport can be handled by state governments, while local roads, planning and community services are handled by local governments. National matters such as defence, foreign affairs and immigration are handled by the federal government.
For an Australian state, moving from a federal system to a sovereign country would not simply mean expanding the powers of the state government slightly further. It would mean crossing an entire set of national-level institutional issues involving law, population, defence, foreign affairs, currency and borders.
Western Australia Once Considered Leaving Too
Compared with the UK, Australia has a shorter history. Before federation was established in 1901, the six states were originally separate British colonies, each with its own government and parliament, before later forming Australia through the federal system. Western Australia, in particular, once sought to leave the Australian Federation because of dissatisfaction with the federal system.
Western Australia was the last colony at the time to decide to join the federation. The gold rush in the late 19th century drove rapid population and economic growth, but Western Australia was geographically distant from the eastern states, and its economic structure and local interests were also different. The state had abundant mineral resources and vast areas of land. As resource development continued, Western Australia later became an important resource and export base for Australia. Iron ore, gold, natural gas and lithium remain important pillars of Western Australia’s economy today.
However, joining the federation did not eliminate the differences between Western Australia and the eastern states. In 1900, Western Australian voters voted in favour of joining the federation, but after federation was established, disputes over tariffs, resources and economic interests continued. Some Western Australians believed that Western Australia provided large amounts of resources and export revenue to the country, but federal policies did not necessarily adequately reflect local interests. As these grievances accumulated, the idea of leaving the federation regained attention in the 1920s, while the Great Depression further deepened dissatisfaction with the federal system among some Western Australians.
By 1933, this separatist sentiment finally reached the stage of a referendum. Western Australia held a referendum on April 8 on leaving the Australian Federation, with more than two-thirds of voters supporting separation. The Western Australian government subsequently sent a delegation to Britain to seek support, but the British side ultimately considered that Western Australia could not legally leave the federation without the approval of the Australian Parliament. Western Australia ultimately remained part of the Australian Federation.
Could Western Australia Become Independent Today?
Whether Western Australia could become an independent country today can be considered from four aspects: law, population, the economy, and identity.
(1) Law
To discuss whether Western Australia can leave Australia, we can first return to the establishment of the Australian Federation. Before 1901, Australia’s six states were still British colonies, each with its own government, parliament and legal system. They were not a unified country. As there was a need to handle matters such as defence, immigration and trade collectively, the colonies eventually chose to form a federation and establish Australia as a common country under the same system.
Once this federal system was established, whether a state could leave on its own was no longer simply a matter that could be decided within the state. The Australian Constitution does not specify how existing states can leave the federation. Instead, its opening provisions describe the Australian Commonwealth as “indissoluble”, meaning indivisible. In other words, the current Constitution does not provide a legal procedure for a state to independently withdraw from the federation.
If a state were to legally leave Australia, the Constitution would first have to be amended, and constitutional amendment requires a national referendum. In addition to receiving support from more than half of voters across Australia, a majority of voters in a majority of states would also have to support it. This arrangement in fact reflects the way the federation was originally established: since Australia was formed as a federation through the agreement of different colonies, changing the constitutional arrangements of the federation itself cannot be decided unilaterally by just one state.
Therefore, even if Western Australia held its own referendum and obtained majority support, a state-level vote alone would not be enough to complete secession. If Western Australia were genuinely to leave Australia, it would need not only the consent of Western Australians, but also the agreement of the entire federal political community to a change in the constitutional arrangements. Therefore, under the current system, it is not simple for an Australian state to move towards independence.
(2) Population
But assuming that this legal obstacle were genuinely resolved one day, would Western Australia have the basic conditions to become a country?
Population is one important factor. As of March 2026, Western Australia’s population was more than 3 million, while Australia’s total population was approximately 27.92 million. This in itself does not mean that it could not become a country, but the size of the population would directly affect the institutional costs it would have to bear after independence.
Functions currently handled by the federal government, including defence, foreign affairs, borders, immigration and some financial and administrative functions, would all need to be established and maintained by Western Australia itself after independence. Therefore, the real question concerning population is not simply “how many people are there?”, but whether this population size could support the institutions and public services required by a fully sovereign country.
(3) Economy
On the other hand, Western Australia does have a very strong economic foundation. According to the latest data from the Western Australian Government, Western Australia’s gross state product was approximately A$461.7 billion in 2024–25, accounting for around 17% of Australia’s economy. In the year to May 2026, Western Australia’s merchandise exports reached A$237.7 billion, accounting for 44.5% of Australia’s total merchandise exports.
But the question is how much of this economic strength could be directly converted into the capabilities of an independent country.
Western Australia’s current exports, businesses, labour market and financial system do not operate within the framework of an independent country. Large-scale resource exports require international trade arrangements, businesses would need to deal with new tax and regulatory systems, while residents would also have to deal with currency, banking, passports, borders and immigration issues that are currently handled uniformly under the federal system. Even if Western Australia retained the Australian dollar, maintained an open border with Australia, or signed a defence cooperation agreement with Australia, these arrangements would all have to be renegotiated rather than naturally continuing after independence.
(4) Identity
Beyond population and the economy, there is another factor that is more difficult to quantify: identity.
Unlike Scotland and Wales, although Western Australia has its own history, geographical environment and regional identity, this does not mean that Western Australians generally see themselves as a nation separate from Australia. Regional identity and Australian identity can coexist. Therefore, separatist demands that have emerged in Western Australia in the past may not necessarily have been based primarily on cultural or national identity. They can also be understood as dissatisfaction with the federal system, central government policies, and the distribution of interests between the states.
In other words, believing that “leaving Australia” would give Western Australia greater autonomy is different from believing that “Western Australia is a nation separate from Australia”. For a genuinely independent country, in addition to having its own government, economy and territory, there must also be sufficient political will for residents to accept a new national identity.
Western Australia today is not a place lacking the conditions for independence, but neither is it a place that could simply leave the Australian Federation after holding a single referendum. The real key would still require fundamental changes to both Australia’s constitutional system and Western Australia’s own political choices.
Three Levels of Government Provide Space Beyond Independence
Australia’s federal system actually provides a relatively important buffer.
The three-level government system has of course not eliminated conflicts between the central government and the regions, but it means that regions do not necessarily have to choose between “completely obeying the central government” and “leaving the country”. State governments already have certain legislative and policy powers. They can formulate state-level policies according to local needs, manage public services, and represent their states in negotiating fiscal and policy arrangements with the federal government.
For Western Australia or other states, this means that even if a state government believes that the distribution of resources under the federal system is unfair, it can still demand reform within the federal framework. Even if it believes that states should have greater autonomy, it can put forward demands for greater state powers. Local interests do not need to first be transformed into demands for independence in order to have political space for expression.
This is one of the important functions of a federal system: it does not require every region to be exactly the same, but within the same country, it allows different regions to retain a certain degree of autonomy.
The Australian Constitution establishes the basic framework of this system by dividing powers between the federal and state governments. The three levels of government then distribute different areas of public responsibility. This arrangement may not prevent all conflicts between the central government and the regions, but it at least provides different levels of political responses.
Therefore, if regional consciousness in an Australian state were to strengthen further in the future, the question would return to the federal system itself: can Australia’s existing federal system continue to accommodate the interests and demands of different regions, allowing regions the space to seek greater autonomy within the federal framework?
Countries Do Not Remain Unchanged, and Institutions Must Respond to Society
From a broader perspective, the UK’s experience is not only about Scotland, Wales or Northern Ireland. It also reflects a more universal question: the relationship between the state and society has never been fixed. Population movements, economic development, generational change, rising levels of education, and the gradual formation of regional identities can all change how society understands power, identity and autonomy. These changes do not necessarily lead directly to independence, but they may cause political arrangements that were once taken for granted to gradually come under renewed scrutiny.
This change does not exist only in the UK or federal countries. For other countries, and even centralised states such as China, how the relationship between the centre and the regions, and between the state and society, should be adjusted is also an issue that needs to be addressed. Central power can be very strong, but maintaining a stable community over the long term depends not only on laws and political institutions, but also on whether institutions can respond to the constantly changing needs of different regions and social groups.
Returning to Australia, the issue facing Western Australia today is still mainly about the distribution of power and interests within the federation, rather than the breakup of the country. But Western Australia already held a secession referendum a century ago, while self-determination debates have re-emerged in the UK today. Looking at these two histories together shows that the relationship between regions and the centre is not fixed. The integrity of a country can be established by laws and institutions, but for a community to remain together over the long term, institutions ultimately need to have the ability to respond to changes in society.
Features
Does a Decline in PISA Scores Mean Education Has Failed?
Published
3 weeks agoon
September 28, 2026Every few years, the global education community goes through a familiar “results day”. On September 8, the Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development (OECD) released the latest round of PISA 2025 results. More than 760,000 15-year-old students from 91 countries and economies took part in the assessment, making it the largest PISA to date.
For Australia, the results do not look particularly good. Australian students recorded an average score of 509 in science, 491 in reading and 478 in mathematics. Reading fell another 7 points from 2022, while mathematics fell by about 9 points, with both reaching their lowest levels since Australia first participated in PISA. Looking further back, Australia’s reading score has fallen from 528 in 2000 to 491, while mathematics has fallen from 524 in 2003 to 478. It is therefore natural that “Australian education is continuing to decline” would become a news headline.
But another set of figures is equally true: Australia’s scores in all three subjects remain above the OECD average. In 2025, the OECD averages were 482 for science, 461 for reading and 463 for mathematics. In Australia, 82% of students reached the basic proficiency level in science, 71% reached the basic level in mathematics and 77% reached the basic level in reading, all above the OECD averages.
So what exactly does PISA tell us about Australian education: that it is “very poor”, or that it is “actually not bad”? The answer may depend on what exactly we want to prove with this report card.
International Education Comparisons at the Political Level
Today, we are accustomed to seeing “global education rankings”, but putting students from different countries on the same test paper and comparing them has only a history of several decades.
In the late 1950s, the International Association for the Evaluation of Educational Achievement (IEA) began exploring the possibility of cross-national comparisons in education. In 1960, the IEA conducted a pilot study in 12 countries, testing the abilities of 13-year-old students in mathematics, reading, geography, science and other subjects. In 1964, it conducted the first International Mathematics Study, or FIMS.
The timing was not accidental. In 1957, the Soviet Union successfully launched the world’s first artificial satellite. For the United States at the time, this was not simply a setback in the space race. It was quickly understood as an education crisis. If the Soviet Union could be the first to put a satellite into space, did this mean that the United States had already fallen behind in its ability to train scientists, mathematicians and engineers?
The following year, the US Congress passed the National Defense Education Act, significantly increasing investment in mathematics, science, foreign languages and the development of talent in higher education. From then on, education became more directly connected to national security, technological competition and economic strength. Therefore, early international education comparisons cannot simply be understood as asking, “Which country’s children are smarter?” The larger question was actually whether our education systems could produce the people our countries would need in the future.
From 1980 to 1982, the IEA conducted the Second International Mathematics Study, or SIMS. In 1995, this developed into the larger Third International Mathematics and Science Study, later known as TIMSS, which has continued to this day. TIMSS still focuses on comparing students’ learning outcomes in mathematics and science, and is relatively closely aligned with the content taught in schools.
The Way We Assess Education Has Changed
In 2000, the OECD conducted PISA for the first time. Its biggest difference from TIMSS was not simply the addition of reading, but that it asked a different question.
TIMSS is closer to asking, “Have students learned the mathematics and science that schools are supposed to teach?” PISA, by contrast, deliberately does not fully follow the curriculum of any particular country. Instead, it tests whether 15-year-old students can apply what they have learned to unfamiliar and real-world situations, such as reading charts, evaluating information, solving problems and making inferences. In other words, PISA is not simply asking about the content of textbooks, but about students’ ability to apply knowledge.
This also reflects another shift behind international education comparisons. During the Cold War, countries were concerned about whether they had enough scientists to keep up with their rivals. In the era of globalisation, countries became more concerned about whether their young people could compete in a knowledge-based economy.
The scale of PISA therefore expanded rapidly. The first round involved 43 countries and economies. By 2022, there were 81, and in 2025 the number rose to 91. What began largely as an international comparison involving wealthy industrialised countries gradually became a global map of education. Once the whole world began using the same measuring stick, that measuring stick itself naturally acquired unprecedented political power.
Does Every Country Have an Education Crisis?
After PISA results are released, politicians, education organisations and the media often immediately ask: Where did we rank? Did we rise or fall?
One of the most famous examples is Germany. When the first PISA results were released in 2000, Germany’s results were below domestic expectations, creating what later became known as the “PISA shock”. This triggered years of education reform, including the development of national education standards, stronger support for disadvantaged and migrant students, and the establishment of more systematic education monitoring. This shows that PISA’s function has long gone beyond research.
A fall in rankings can be used by an opposition party to demonstrate government incompetence, by teacher organisations to demand more resources, or by a government to demonstrate that a particular reform is urgently needed.
Australia this year is a good example. The day after PISA was released, Education Minister Jason Clare had already linked the results to the government’s ongoing efforts in reading, phonics, mathematics curricula and school reform, and used improvements in England’s recent results as evidence supporting the direction of reform. This does not mean that these reforms lack a basis, but it reminds us that international rankings are never interpreted in a political vacuum.
The same Australian results can be presented as “reading and mathematics have reached historic lows”, or as “all three subjects remain above the OECD average”. Neither statement is wrong. The former emphasises the downward trend over two decades, while the latter emphasises Australia’s relative position in international comparisons.
Are East Asians Better at Taking Tests?
Whenever PISA results are released, another familiar discussion concerns East Asian education.
In 2025, the four participating Chinese regions and Singapore once again ranked near the top, while Japan, South Korea, Taiwan, Macao and Hong Kong also ranked near the top in several areas. Many people therefore explain this by saying that East Asia has been influenced by Confucian culture, places greater importance on study and examinations, and that students study more, attend more tutoring and are more accustomed to high-pressure examinations, giving them a natural advantage in large-scale international assessments. By contrast, Western countries such as Australia place greater emphasis on student autonomy, creativity and a freer form of education, putting them at a disadvantage in standardised tests.
This explanation is not entirely wrong. A number of Asian education systems, including Hong Kong, Singapore, Japan and Taiwan, have indeed had high-stakes public examinations for a long time. The OECD has also pointed out that high-stakes central examinations can affect school teaching and student behaviour. But attributing all of East Asia’s high scores to examination culture is also an oversimplification.
First, PISA itself is not a typical curriculum examination. It deliberately tests the ability to apply knowledge to new situations. In fact, when the OECD compared PISA and TIMSS, it found that countries’ relative performance in the two assessments was not completely the same. Some of the differences came from the content of the assessments, as well as the fact that PISA samples by age while TIMSS samples by grade.
Second, Singapore’s high scores cannot simply be explained by saying that it only selects elite students to sit the test. PISA requires participating jurisdictions to select a representative sample of 15-year-old students enrolled in school, rather than choosing only students from elite schools or top performers. Singapore’s small system, highly centralised policies, and the strong coordination between its curriculum, teacher training and assessment may all be factors more worthy of study when understanding its results than simply saying that “its students are better at taking tests”.
The same applies to Hong Kong. The gradual move from “elite education” towards a more universal education system is indeed part of Hong Kong’s education history, but it cannot therefore be directly claimed that the recent decline in PISA scores is “because elite students were taught in the past, while everyone goes to school now”. PISA itself is based on the population of 15-year-old students enrolled in school, and Hong Kong had already entered the era of universal basic education when it participated in PISA.
Population structure, curriculum reforms, learning time, examination systems, family resources, student motivation and even sampling methods may all affect the final scores. This shows that the illusion most easily created by international rankings is to compress a complex education system into a single number.
AI’s Fault
When PISA was released in 2022, COVID-19 was an unavoidable part of the background. Students in many countries experienced school closures and remote learning, while mathematics and reading scores across OECD countries also experienced historically unusual declines. But at the time, the OECD had already warned that declines in many countries had actually begun before the pandemic.
By 2026, a new explanation has emerged: AI. This PISA cycle is the first full-scale international assessment conducted after generative AI such as ChatGPT became widespread, so the OECD asked students in detail for the first time about how they use AI.
In Australia, 50% of 15-year-old students said they used AI chatbots to help with learning at least once a week, above the OECD average of 46%. Thirty-five per cent used AI to conduct initial research on new topics, 33% used it to summarise assigned reading, and 27% used it to draft homework. Only about 15% of Australian students said they almost never used AI for the learning tasks covered by PISA.
On the surface, the data seems to provide an easy story: “Students rely more on ChatGPT, so they are becoming worse at reading.” But PISA itself did not draw such a simple conclusion.
The data shows that students who used AI to summarise, conduct initial research or write tended to have lower average scores than those who did not use it at all. But the OECD specifically emphasised that this is a correlation and does not mean that AI itself caused lower scores. Students who already have greater learning difficulties may be more reliant on AI, or the key issue may not be “whether it is used” but “how it is used”.
Australia’s data reflects this point particularly well. Some 68.3% of Australian students said they had learned in class how to assess the quality of AI-generated information, above the OECD average of 62.6%. Among students who frequently use AI, those who had received this kind of AI literacy education generally performed better in science.
So the real question may not be “Should students use AI?” but whether students are treating AI as an answer machine that replaces thinking, or as a tool that helps them think.
PISA in the Age of AI
This is also the most noteworthy aspect of this year’s PISA. The OECD found that some of the reading abilities that have declined most significantly in recent years are precisely those that are most needed in the age of AI: comparing different sources of information, evaluating evidence, distinguishing facts from opinions, and making inferences when information is contradictory. Compared with 2018, the proportion of “hasty readers” who gave incorrect answers after reading quickly had almost doubled in 2025.
This makes something somewhat ironic.
When ChatGPT can write an article in seconds, and Google and AI can provide answers immediately, we might think that memorising knowledge and reading long texts are becoming less important. But the easier it becomes for AI to generate answers, the more people need to know: Is this answer trustworthy? What has it left out? Where is the evidence? When two claims contradict each other, which one should I believe?
These are precisely the abilities that PISA has been trying to measure for years.
PISA 2025 also introduced “Learning in the Digital World” for the first time, testing whether students can learn independently in digital environments, use computational tools, break down problems and adjust their problem-solving strategies. Australia scored 532 on the currently released computational problem-solving indicator, above the OECD score of 500, and performed relatively better on this measure than on its three traditional subjects. A complete analysis will not be released until 2027.
Therefore, PISA 2026 may have raised a question that is more important than rankings.
More than 60 years ago, international education comparisons emerged because Sputnik made countries concerned about whether their students could be trained to become the next generation of scientists and engineers. Today, the threat is no longer a satellite suddenly launched into space, but an artificial intelligence technology whose capabilities are changing almost every few months.
But the core question facing education has not really changed. We are still asking: Is what schools are teaching today enough to prepare the next generation for a completely different world?
So rather than simply asking whether Australia ranks 10th or 16th, or how many more points it has fallen, perhaps the more important questions are: Why have students’ reading and mathematics abilities been declining for two decades? Why have some education systems managed to improve against the trend? What types of technology use genuinely promote learning, and what types simply outsource thinking?
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