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Geelong Oil Refinery Blaze May Impact Australia’s Petrol Production ‘for some time’

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Energy Minister Chris Bowen has warned an ongoing fire at one of Australia’s two operational oil refineries may impact petrol supply “for some time”, as the government continues to grapple with the global oil crisis triggered by the Middle East war.

The blaze at Viva Energy Refinery in Geelong broke out just after 11pm on Wednesday, with authorities called to the site after multiple reports of explosions and flames. Mr Bowen said it appeared to be an accident at this stage and that there were no suspicious circumstances, while adding that the refinery is continuing to produce diesel and jet fuel “at reduced levels” due to safety precautions, with petrol production likely to be most impacted.

Simultaneously, Prime Minister Albanese will visit Malaysia on Thursday as part of a broader tour of some of Australia’s key fuel suppliers, having signed a joint statement with his counterpart vowing to work together to “strengthen energy supply chain resilience” during a stop in Brunei on Wednesday. But Saul Kavonic, an energy analyst with MST Financial, said the fire had complicated the government’s efforts to ensure continued fuel supply “just as the crunch point of the global fuel shortage is about to hit us”, increasing the risk of fuel shortages and the need for stronger demand management measures to be taken earlier.

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Permanent Migration Intake Maintained at 185,000

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New Federal Budget Focuses on Deficit Reduction and Tax Reform

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Federal Treasurer Jim Chalmers last night (Tuesday) delivered his fifth federal budget, stating that its central objective is to address “intergenerational inequality.” The government aims to gradually improve the nation’s fiscal position over coming years through spending cuts and tax reforms, though several measures have triggered strong criticism from the business and property sectors.

The budget forecasts a deficit of A$31.5 billion for the next financial year, A$2.8 billion lower than previously projected. However, the federal government does not expect to return to surplus until the 2034–35 financial year. Australia’s public debt is also forecast to rise to A$982 billion by the end of the current financial year. Chalmers said the government plans to save A$63.8 billion through spending restraint, with the largest component coming from reforms to the National Disability Insurance Scheme (NDIS), expected to save A$37.8 billion over four years.

The budget also outlines five major economic strategies, including strengthening economic resilience, easing cost-of-living pressures, boosting productivity, reforming the tax system, and reducing inflationary pressures through spending restraint.

Housing and tax reform emerged as one of the budget’s key focuses. The government announced that from July next year, negative gearing tax concessions for residential property will apply only to newly built homes. At the same time, the current 50% capital gains tax discount will be abolished and replaced with a system based on inflation-adjusted gains. In addition, the minimum effective capital gains tax rate will rise to 30%, with trusts to be subject to the same arrangement from the following year.

The government estimates the measures could reduce projected housing price growth by around 2% over coming years and create approximately 75,000 additional home ownership opportunities over the next decade. However, Opposition treasury spokesperson Angus Taylor said the Coalition does not support the reforms, arguing they would weaken investment incentives and potentially reduce housing supply by 35,000 homes over the next decade, further driving up rents.

The government also introduced tax relief measures, including a A$250 “working tax offset” for more than 13 million taxpayers. By 2028, the average worker is expected to receive more than A$2,800 in tax cuts.

Beyond fiscal and tax reforms, the government confirmed an additional A$53 billion in defense spending over the next decade, alongside A$10 billion to strengthen fuel security. It also unveiled a new productivity plan aimed at attracting investment and boosting wages.

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Government budget emphasises “hard road of reform”

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The Australian federal government will release its new budget tonight, with Labor describing it as a fiscal plan that takes the “hard road of reform”, focusing on cost-of-living pressures, housing supply, and persistently rising inflation.

Treasurer Jim Chalmers said that although the budget does not forecast a return to surplus over the next four years, deficits are expected to narrow each year compared with the December update, indicating an improvement in the fiscal position. The earlier forecast projected a cumulative deficit of about A$143 billion between 2025/26 and 2028/29.

Prime Minister Anthony Albanese stressed that the budget will use tax adjustments and measures to boost housing supply to create a fairer environment for young Australians. He described it as a “major reform budget” aimed at strengthening economic resilience while addressing long-delayed structural issues.

The government is also expected to introduce tax changes, including higher taxes on property investors and trust income, to help fund major spending in defence, healthcare, and rail infrastructure. At the same time, a one-off tax cut of A$200–A$300 will be delayed until 2027 to avoid adding to short-term inflationary pressure.

On the spending side, the Treasury has identified about A$63.8 billion in savings, with the largest component being a planned A$35 billion reduction in the cost of the National Disability Insurance Scheme (NDIS). The government also emphasised that overall spending growth will remain subdued, at one of the lowest levels in nearly 35 years.

Commentary:

Labor’s earlier proposals to cut NDIS spending and adjust parts of the tax system have already drawn significant public criticism and scrutiny. It remains open to question whether this can truly be described as a “major reform budget”, or whether it is simply a limited fiscal tightening framed as structural reform.

Against the backdrop of rising support for One Nation following its victory in the Farrer by-election, growing voter polarisation, and increasing dissatisfaction with mainstream parties, Labor is facing mounting political pressure. The details announced in tonight’s budget will therefore be closely watched by both markets and the political sphere, shaping not only economic expectations but also public judgment of Labor’s governing competence and its future electoral prospects.

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