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From the Mystery of “Sheikh of Dubai

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Hong Kong has been slipped into the limelight again. A few months ago it was Lionel Messi, now it’s the so-called “Sheikh of Dubai”. Some time ago, a noble “Sheikh of Dubai” named His Highness Sheikh Ali Al Maktoum visited Hong Kong, and right away he made a big move – he wanted to invest 500 million US dollars in Hong Kong to set up a family office! After his visit to Hong Kong last December, he decided to set up a family office, his first overseas presence. If it goes well, it will be the first overseas family office of the Dubai royal family. But just when everyone thought that the “Sheikh of Dubai” was coming to Hong Kong with a bag full of money, things suddenly took a turn for the worse.

 

“I’ll be back in May!”

Originally, the Sheikh said he had invested US$500 million in the project and was received by the Hong Kong government with high standards, and the Chief Executive, Mr. John Lee Ka Chiu, also met with him in person. However, before the scheduled launching ceremony of the family office, the Sheikh suddenly had to leave on important business, and he even sent a message through the air, “I’ll be back in May! The last person to say such a thing was Jia Yueting, who is building a car in the United States and will always claim return home next week. This sudden change has made people suspicious of his real identity and intentions. With the depth of the investigation, the media also gradually unveiled the real veil of Ali.

Through facial recognition technology, it was determined that Sheikh Ali bears a 100% resemblance to a singer named Alira. According to Alira’s online video interview, he said that his parents are pure Dubain, no Filipino blood, because he likes the kindness and enthusiasm of Filipinos, so he sings Filipino songs. From the tone of his voice and his English accent, he seems to be the same person as Sheikh Ali. Currently, Alira’s official website, Instagram, Facebook, YouTube, and TikTok homepage are all inaccessible.

In the Middle East, there are many Sheikhs, while Ali was not known in Hong Kong before. Some Hong Kong media even found that almost no one in the political and business circles in Dubai knows Sheikh Ali. The Sheikh’s family office website is less than a year old, and the address is in the middle class area of Dubai, far from the business center, and the address in Hong Kong is just a signboard instead of the name of the Sheikh’s family office. The Director of International Relations of the Sheikh’s Family Office is called William Tien, whose doctoral title comes from the “Humanitarian technologies innovation and deployment Honorary Doctor” awarded by Horizons University in France. After checking, this Horizons University was once exposed by the media as a pheasant university.

When things got to this point, a reporter asked the UAE Consulate General in Hong Kong, and the reply was: “It is confirmed that Sheikh Ali is from the ‘ruling family’ and can be addressed as a ‘sheikh’”, and is a distant relative of the current UAE Vice President, Muhammad Al-Maktoum. Hong Kong government people also responded to the news, said the Sheikh’s title is written on the passport, so the identity is real, I hope people do not guess, but also do not be nervous, after all, Hong Kong has not suffered any loss. In that case, he is not a fake Sheikh, but he is just not that close to reality. Has Hong Kong been “tricked” or not? Will the “Sheikh of Dubai” come back in May? It’s hard to tell if it’s true or not, so we can only wait and see what happens.

However, in handling this incident, Hong Kong government officials seem to be inexperienced in the process of “scaffolding” (i.e., using public relations tactics to create visibility and recognition in order to gain higher public recognition), and are unable to distinguish the real from the fake and differentiate the powerful innovators from those who are just bubbles but not powerful bigwigs. Without verifying the backgrounds of the people concerned, CE John Lee has been utilized as a cheerleader to promote his client, which can be regarded as a display of incompetence.

 

The Mysteries of Truth and Falsehood

A lot of people in Dubai are Sheikhs, just as Liu Bei said he was the descendant of King Jing of Zhongshan in the period of Three Kingdoms, but a lot of people have some Han lineage, Liu Bei’s thin lineage did not bring much dividend; it was a bit useful after he went to Jingzhou. And it is in this kind of gray area, true or false, real or false, so that the outside world can not see clearly, so that there is an opportunity to create momentum, take advantage of the situation, for their own profit. It must be said that the “Sheikh of Dubai” incident nowadays inevitably reminds us of another past incident – the media-hyped “His Holiness the White Horse Osei”, Wu Dayong, nearly a decade ago.

In 2015, “His Holiness Baima Osei” Wu Dayong held a grand sitting ceremony for actor Zhang Tielin in Hong Kong, and gave Zhang Tielin the Dharma name, Dharma vestments, Dharma equipment and other items. In his personal website and external propaganda, Baima Osei even claimed that Naomi Xinxiong Rinpoche and Moza Rinpoche of the Kadu Monastery in Sichuan had certified him as a living Buddha. However, the occasion, the program, and even the robes he wore were all said to be not in line with Tibetan Buddhist religious rituals.

The microblogging credentials of Wu Dayong were even more bluffing – “Chairman of the World Trade Organization Foundation”. This was the home base of His Holiness Baima Osei, and all his activities were organized in the name of this organization. Formerly known as the WTO Business Facilitation Association, the organization was established in Hong Kong in 2001 and was renamed as the United World Trade Foundation around 2013, which is a non-profit organization. Apart from “promoting Buddhism” on various occasions, Ng Dayong’s other important job is to run his businesses, which are mainly divided into two parts, one is the “Global Tianquan Project” and the other is called “Alpha Brain Development”. Although promoted as a high-tech and environmentally friendly technology, professionals are not optimistic about its application in the real world.

In the end, people with a little common sense and experience are not alerted to the fact that a Hong Kong person has been certified as the Dharma King of Tibetan Buddhism, which cannot be regarded as a limitation of ability and knowledge. On the contrary, most of the Melbourne Chinese expatriates who are willing to be touted by the Chinese in their community are doing so for the sake of profit and losing their conscience to deceive the Chinese in their community. As for the politicians who utilized their public office status to tout, they were obviously paving the way for their own future. There is a former Speaker of the Upper House in Victoria who was willingly invited by His Holiness Baima Osei many times to make appearances in Melbourne, Hong Kong and other places, obviously hoping to gain benefits for himself in the process.

However, despite being exposed in China, His Holiness has been able to repackage himself as a Malaysian Dato’ and an environmental entrepreneur, and continues to be active around the world, which shows that he has a solid backing, and is also recognized by the Chinese government. This is not just a scaffolding activity to get money, but a higher level of “scaffolding”.

 

Higher level of “scaffolding

In addition to monetary returns, “scaffolding” can also have other goals, including politics, money laundering, and money transfers, etc. These goals are not simply to obtain money, but may be a means to splash money, which is not easy to be discovered by ordinary people.

Every time His Holiness came to Melbourne, he would give a feast to the community and free hospitality to the expatriates, as well as a large number of gifts to those who participated in the support. In fact, the participants knew that there was no free lunch in this world, but they believed that they might be able to benefit from it, so they were willing to be cheated. His Holiness has indeed connected many Melbourne expatriates to many enterprises and social organizations in China, and some have even been invited to visit and attend the National Day activities. It is evident that His Holiness Baima Osei’s activities in Melbourne are believed to be closely related to China’s efforts to unify the overseas Chinese. I remember that at one of His Holiness’s events in Melbourne, the guest speaker was Mr. Lu Wenduan, who is currently the Vice Chairman of the All-China Federation of Overseas Compatriot’s Associations, which shows what kind of power His Holiness Baima Osei has in his hands.

After the passage of the Anti-Foreign Interference Act in Australia in 2018, it is believed that the Australian government will be concerned about the active participants are also likely to be targeted by the Australian Intelligence Agency, whether the parties involved can be considered innocent of being implicated, can not be determined. What is certain is that His Holiness was packaged and supported in Melbourne, and this did form the basis of his activities in many countries in the following years, building up the united front for China.

 

How to avoid being dragged into the shed?

Exaggeration, internationalization, authority and public service have always been the self-packaging techniques of His Holiness Baima Osei. He has been called “the single most influential spiritual wisdom teacher in the world. As is standard for all “masters”, the activities he participates in or organizes are of a public service nature, and the words “global” and “humanity” often appear. It is hard not to think that this is an ulterior motive to deceive the world and make money under the banner of Buddhism. This is the way things are in the world, trying to hide the truth. “Although His Holiness the Baima Osei has been dormant for many years, incidents of a similar nature have never been far from the public eye. Just like the current Sheikh of Dubai, he is investing 500 million US dollars in artificial intelligence, construction, electric vehicles, tourism and financial technology, which is quite like “never stop until you are surprised”. After the eyeballs were drawn and a whirlwind of public opinion was stirred up, who actually paid the bill for whom?

 

Excessive Worship of Authority

Whether it is the current “Sheikh of Dubai” mystery, or the Holiness Baima Osei scam, in fact, can not avoid the so-called title, high economic and social status of the worship of people – worship of authority is a relatively common social mentality, in the heart of the depths of almost everyone more or less some worship of authority complex. However, if this kind of complex is overdone, it may create an unhealthy atmosphere in the society. For example, when one hears about a “prince” or “guru” somewhere, he or she will flock to him or her without doing any research, and with the support of the official authorities, the public, who are seriously lacking in information sources, will be deceived.

If a person worships authority too much, he will easily become a superstitious believer in authority, and then imitate it and follow its example. This is not uncommon in Chinese society, which worshiped the emperor nearly two years ago. It is for this reason that all kinds of “guru” scams are emerging in China nowadays. Social psychologists have pointed out that society itself is a form of imitation. One of the rules is that people of low status tend to imitate people of high status. In other words, authority becomes an easy object for people to imitate, especially in times of excessive authority worship. This is known as the “Imitation of Authority Effect”. Fraudsters use this effect to fool people by packaging themselves through authoritative figures.

If we want to see through the nature of the scam, the core of the scam is to “get rid of the charm”. “Disenchantment” is an important concept put forward by sociologist Max Weber, which was originally used to describe the process by which people continuously remove from their life practices the knowledge and ethics of religious worldviews and ethics that are of a witchcraft or superstitious nature. The disenchantment of the world is also an important judgment made by Max Weber on the process of modernization. For China in the process of modernization, the “disenchantment” of authority has not been completed thoroughly enough.

In a country or a society, people are always prone to accept certain concepts and believe in the existence of certain phenomena, and there must be a social psychology behind them. Putting down the filters and worship of authority, high economic and social status, titles, etc., requires the whole society to reach a consensus and continue to improve the quality and judgment of all citizens. More importantly, the official government, which represents the authority, needs to be more self-respecting, and strictly examine the facts of all kinds of news and set a good example of “getting rid of the charm”.

 

Article/Editorial Department (Sameway Magazine)

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U.S. Tax Policy Reversals: The Future of Cross-Border E-Commerce is Uncertain

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U.S. President Donald Trump signed a presidential executive order on February 1 that imposed additional tariffs on goods imported from Mexico, Canada, and China, specifying that small-dollar imports of less than 800 U.S. dollars would also be included in the scope of the tax. The move is believed to target Chinese e-commerce companies such as Temu and Shein, which have taken advantage of the duty-free policy on small-value imports to rapidly expand their share of the U.S. market. The latest news is that Trump has signed another executive order temporarily freezing tariffs on low-cost packages from China so that specific arrangements can be made. The White House did not specify how long the administration plans to delay the tariffs.

Fast Fashion Brand SHEIN Dominates Overseas Markets with Low Prices

Chinese e-commerce is pervasive

Temu has been expanding overseas since September 2020, and ECDB (e-commerce database) figures show an exponential increase in web traffic and app downloads in May 2023 compared to April. Not only Temu, but also Shein, Aliexpress, and JD have taken their domestic competition to the global market, creating a wave of Chinese e-commerce platform shopping around the world. In the midst of the Russian-Ukrainian war and the inflationary impact of the new Covid-19 pandemic in Europe and the United States, low-cost products have become more attractive to European and American consumers, and have even relieved them of their tight wallets.

In the U.S., Temu bills itself as a 2022 Boston-based, Delaware-registered business that ships products directly from manufacturers and suppliers. According to industry analysis, Temu’s primary operator is its Chinese parent company, Pinduoduo, which was founded in Guangdong in 2019. Leveraging Pinduoduo’s experience in grabbing the market with low prices in China, Temu has not only rapidly built up its user base in Europe and the U.S. through extensive advertising and referrals from friends, but has even attracted consumers who boycotted Amazon because they thought it was a monopoly e-commerce company. On the other hand, Shein is a cross-border B2C Internet enterprise focusing on women’s fast fashion, which was founded in October 2008 with the goal of “enjoying the beauty of fashion for everyone”. Shein’s business focuses on women’s fast fashion, and it has entered major markets such as North America, Europe, the Middle East, Southeast Asia and South America, and directly serves consumers in more than 150 countries around the world, with an APP that covers more than 50 languages globally, and owns 11 private labels. 2020, during the outbreak of the New Crown epidemic, the apparel industry was hit hard, and Zara announced that its revenue had been cut by half in February-April, and it decided to close 1,200 stores. Zara announced that its revenues would be almost halved from February to April and decided to close 1,200 stores. At the same time, Shein’s sales exceeded $40 billion in the first half of 2020, and with a total valuation of more than $15 billion in E-round financing, it has become the apparel brand that is most likely to challenge Zara’s leading position.

One of the secrets of these e-commerce companies’ “pie in the sky” approach to overseas markets is their ability to understand and take advantage of local laws. The costs of cross-border e-commerce include marketing, customer acquisition, cost of goods, and transportation. Currently, Temu and Shein are taking advantage of the Universal Postal Agreement to utilize free parcel post and tariff exemptions to significantly reduce costs. In the U.S., for example, if the value of imported goods is less than $800, duty-free measures apply (the De Minimis rule); the De Minimis rule has been used by Temu, Shein, and other Chinese low-cost e-commerce companies that have been growing rapidly in the U.S. and elsewhere in recent years. These companies deliver goods directly from Chinese factories and warehouses to U.S. consumers through air transportation and other means, realizing non-taxable sales and thus suppressing prices. Compared with U.S. e-commerce companies such as Amazon, which have built warehouses and logistics networks within the U.S., Chinese e-commerce companies have stronger price competitiveness. Trump’s latest tariff policy has changed the status quo.

Building warehouses in the U.S., in addition to increased customs declaration fees and tariffs, but also additional transportation costs, and inventory and management logistics costs, it is clear that operating costs will increase significantly.

 

Seeking survival in the midst of uncertainty

Trump’s policy is a bit like the wolf coming to the rescue. Today he says he will levy taxes, but tomorrow he says he will not do so for the time being. Just when the media are clamoring that cross-border e-commerce overnight, the U.S. tariff policy has changed again – Trump signed an executive order that will continue to allow low-cost product parcels from China to enter the U.S. tariff-free for the time being. The U.S. will continue to provide “de minimis” tariff exemptions for goods from China until the Department of Commerce “establishes adequate systems to fully and expeditiously process and collect tariff revenues”. This change is a win for Chinese e-commerce platforms such as Temu and Shein, which ship directly to the U.S. and are very popular with cost-conscious shoppers, and a relief for U.S.-based consumers, who face higher costs on retail goods shipped from China.

According to statistics, approximately 4 million small-dollar packages valued at less than $800 are shipped from China to the U.S. every day. While this may not be a “big deal” in the huge volume of U.S.-China economic and trade transactions, the pain of eliminating the small-dollar exemption could easily and quickly be transmitted to the nerve endings of U.S. society, given that most of these packages consist of items that American citizens and businesses need on a daily basis, such as low-priced apparel, toys, and electronics, as well as production necessities such as screws and valves, and so on. Perhaps this immediate impact on people’s livelihoods is the main reason behind the policy’s hasty braking.

Nevertheless, Chinese cross-border e-commerce companies such as Temu and Shein are still trembling in fear of Trump’s unpredictable style of governance. In the future, in the face of unpredictable tariff policy changes, cross-border e-commerce large enterprises will choose to enter local warehouses to reduce tariffs, but a group of cross-border e-commerce ordinary sellers are complaining that because of the lack of ability to large-volume warehousing, it will be even more affected in the future. In particular, if the United States takes the lead, will Europe and Japan follow suit? There is a trend in the European Union to remove the exemption for goods under 150 euros, and Japan has a tax-free policy for parcels under 1,000 yen in value. If the whole world adjusts the tax exemption policy for small parcels, the future days of ordinary cross-border e-commerce sellers in China will definitely not be as good as before. In response to the uncertainty of U.S. trade policy, Shein and Temu have opened distribution centers in the U.S. that allow sellers to ship their goods to the U.S. and store them in local warehouses, from which they are shipped to U.S. consumers. As they have become the largest and most monopolized supply platforms, these changes will of course drive up the price of goods, but in the absence of strong competition, it is believed that these companies are still quite capable of facing new challengers.

 

Who pays the price?

With the slogan “Shop like a Billionaire”, Temu is using an extremely low pricing strategy that is killing it in overseas markets. Against the backdrop of shipping overseas, Temu sells sneakers for RMB 45, glasses for RMB 13, sunglasses for RMB 8, cell phone holders for RMB 9, drones for RMB 110, and handheld vacuum cleaners for RMB 40, which is an unbelievably low price. In fact, this comes from the plight of China’s foreign trade since 2022: due to the dynamic zero and “de-risking” of China’s foreign trade suffered a super-expected decline, domestic enterprises have a large amount of inventory backlog. This backlog of inventory is better than rotting in warehouses, no matter how low the price is, as long as the payback cycle is fast. This, coupled with high inflationary pressures in Western societies after 2023, has led to a huge increase in consumer demand for cheaper goods. Against this backdrop, Temu has become the world’s second largest e-commerce company after Amazon, and behind its glittering results are dealers who are crying out for help. Shein, the same fast-fashion brand as Temu, also offers ridiculously cheap clothing. In this supply chain, a large number of laborers working in textile factories in Panyu, Guangzhou, are being squeezed – companies are squeezing social justice and the rule of law to keep costs down, and leaving all the costs to suppliers and employees.

The emergence of this phenomenon was very similar to the oppression of workers’ rights by capitalists after the Industrial Revolution. Workers migrated from the countryside to the cities, leaving the land that provided the basic living conditions, and had to rely on their labor to earn a living, without the ability to bargain with the capitalists. Eventually, social instability evolved over a long period of time, resulting in a slight improvement for workers in developed countries through the enactment of labor protection legislation by the government. Cross-border e-commerce like Temu and Shein, where the benefits go to the company and the costs are passed on to the suppliers and workers, is very unlikely to happen in developed countries. However, the same cannot be said for populous countries such as China or India.

 

Product Quality and Intellectual Property

Consumers may order from these Chinese e-commerce platforms to save money, but product quality is a growing concern in many countries. In addition, counterfeiting is another issue that has been cited as a major market disruptor for low-cost products in China – the protection of anonymity and low thresholds for use on the internet have made e-commerce platforms the best place to sell counterfeits, and Shein’s history of plagiarism is legion, with international brands such as Ralph Lauren, Levi’s, and Zara, as well as Chinese Taobao, being some of the best sellers. Shein has a history of copying everything from international brands such as Ralph Lauren, Levi’s, and Zara to popular clothing on Taobao in China, and has even been accused by the Mexican Ministry of Culture of directly copying the workmanship and patterns of the traditional Mexican embroidery, Huipil. In the face of these lawsuits, Shein seems to be unaffected by the controversy, claiming that the infringing goods were designed independently by the merchants, and that the liability and compensation are borne by the merchants, not by Shein, and that Shein’s huge profits are shared by the entire community.

 

Personal data becomes a commodity

What’s more, the security of personal data is a matter of great concern. Not many people are aware that when a person makes a purchase on an online platform or uses a service (such as enjoying a TikTok video or one of China’s most popular dramas), the user not only receives the service, but also becomes part of the collective data collected by the platform. These data can be used to analyze various human behaviors, and to know and predict their activities and reactions in other areas. The platforms can also use the feedback to change the services they provide to the users or the products they recommend, thus controlling the users to stay on the platforms. Therefore, if these cross-border e-commerce companies become significant suppliers of shopping to people in other countries, it can be argued that they also become a way for China to influence other countries.

For example, Temu collects more information than is necessary for online shopping, including personal biometrics (such as fingerprints) and other data. The difference between China and the West in terms of data ownership is that the West uses data through accountability systems, but Chinese companies and governments are very vague about how they will use consumer data, and you don’t know how the data you leave behind will be used.

 

Conclusion

Temu and Shein are two cross-border platforms that have long been under the scrutiny of Western governments due to their “over-success” in penetrating Western societies and their enormous potential to influence society. Plus, they have long been criticized for labor exploitation in their supply chains, prompting investigations into their ethical sourcing practices. Ironically, while countries like Europe and the United States are pointing fingers and blaming China for its human rights situation, their people are consuming and enjoying products produced by forced labor and low wages; especially at a time of rampant inflation, consumers in the Western world will “vote with their feet” and make their own choices whether to boycott or to comply.

Trump’s order to cancel the tariff exemption for small packages today has attracted global attention as to how much it will affect these companies, and whether it will lead to a new direction of development in the globalization of cross-border e-commerce, so let’s wait and see.

Article/Editorial Department Sameway Magazine

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Trump Shows the True Colors of a Dictator

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Dictators Elected by Democracy

Before and after World War I, countries around the world that had been governed by authoritarian empires moved towards becoming constitutional monarchies or democratic republics, recognizing that the power to govern came from the people and was returned to the people in the form of democracy. The Czar of Russia, the Emperor of the Qing Dynasty, and the Sultan of the Ottoman Empire all disappeared from history. However, more than a hundred years later, in the name of democracy, there are still a lot of dictators in the world who rule their countries according to their own personal preferences, and also influence the peace and development of the world under the banner of national security or hegemony. Hitler and Mussolini, who led to the Second World War, were both national leaders elected by the people of their countries on a one-person-one-vote basis. It can be said that people can democratically elect dictators and rule them with totalitarian power.

Today, after Trump’s strong governance of the United States from 2017 to 2020, he has become the president of the United States again, and it seems that he has used the power given to him by the Americans without any reservation, both at home and abroad, and he has shown his true colours of a great dictator.

Given Trump’s ambition and temperament, he would like to be a “dictator”, and he is envious of those powerful political figures in the world who are in control of their power and who are not subject to any rule, but it is a pity that America’s “democratic system”, “separation of powers”, and “historical tradition” have made it difficult for him to fulfill his ambitions. However, he always wants to try to break through the barriers and have a good time. For example, a few days ago, Trump claimed that he planned to allow the US to “take over” and “own” Gaza and resettle its residents in the process. Instead of being silenced by the outcry, Trump once again said he was “committed to buying and owning Gaza” and said he might hand over parts of the territory to other countries in the Middle East to rebuild. No matter how absurd Trump’s statements are, they still have repercussions and political consequences because Trump is the President of the United States – the most powerful man in the world.

There is no doubt that the U.S. Constitution gives the President enormous power to make executive orders to govern the internal affairs of the United States. But the use of these executive orders also allows the US president to exert great influence over the rest of the world. Trump’s claims before his inauguration that he would “take back” the Panama Canal in order to protect the security of the United States, that he would “buy” Greenland from a disagreeing Denmark, or that he would demand or “invite” Canada to become the 51st state of the United States by way of tariffs, have surprised the world, and Trump’s mindset seems to be that he has the power to rule over any country in the world.

Trump’s latest astonishing statement is that the century-old endless dispute between Israel and the Palestinians in the Middle East over land sovereignty can be permanently resolved by the US “taking over and rebuilding” the crumbling Gaza Strip, which he is convinced the Palestinians want. Such fantasies emphasize Trump’s inner egotist.

/Trump’s Comprehensive Victory and Return

Potential for more chaos

In recent days, the international community has criticized President Donald Trump’s recent comments that the U.S. would “take over” the Gaza Strip, and has objected to the relocation of Palestinians from the Gaza Strip to other countries. Hamas (Palestinian Islamic Resistance Movement) called his remarks “absurd and reflective of his profound ignorance of Palestine and the region”; and its Politburo member Izzat Rashek condemned Trump’s remarks about “buying and owning” the Gaza Strip, stating that the Gaza Strip is “not real estate to be bought and sold” but is an integral part of Palestine, and that it is not appropriate to deal with the Gaza Strip with the mentality of a real estate developer, but with the mentality of an American real estate developer, who has been in charge of the Gaza Strip. It is an integral part of Palestine, and approaching it with a real estate developer’s mentality will only lead to failure.

Many Palestinians in Gaza might consider leaving if given the chance, but even if a million left, as many as 1.2 million would remain. Obviously, the United States – the new owner of what Trump has called “the Riviera of the Middle East” – will have to use force to expel them. This idea is also expected to cause a backlash within the US after its disastrous intervention in Iraq in 2003. Moreover, it would put an end to any lingering hope for a two-state solution. That hope is that the century-long conflict could end with the creation of an independent Palestinian state alongside Israel. In the past, Israel’s Netanyahu government was adamantly opposed to this idea, and over the years of failed peace negotiations, “two states for two peoples” became an empty slogan.

One high-level Arab source even told the media that in the short term, Trump’s surprise announcement could weaken Gaza’s fragile ceasefire. This is because the lack of a plan for the future governance of Gaza has become a fault line in the agreement. Many Palestinians already believe that Israel is using its war on Hamas to destroy Gaza and expel its inhabitants. This is part of their charge that Israel is committing genocide – and now that Trump has offered a plan, they may think that Trump is adding bullets to Israel’s plan. Undoubtedly, Trump’s plan creates enormous uncertainty, injecting more instability into one of the world’s most volatile regions.

 

A Major Shock to the International Order

Unlike traditional dictators, today’s dictators usually rise in democratic political environments. The United States is not naturally immune to dictators. During World War II, dictatorship was fashionable among the American elite. Eleanor Roosevelt once suggested to her husband that the country might need a “benevolent dictator” to lead it out of the Great Depression. This was not quelled until after Pearl Harbor. Robert Kagan, who has served as a foreign policy adviser to a number of Republicans, has written for the Washington Post that there is a clear path to dictatorship in the United States, and that path is getting shorter every day. Given Trump’s intuition, past behavior, and control of the Republican Party, his second term in office is barely a month old and has already shown the world that he is further weakening democracy.

By proposing to ‘own’ the Gaza Strip and carry out so-called ‘redevelopment’ after ‘permanently’ relocating the Palestinians, Trump has once again demonstrated his alarming global hegemonic stance. Behind this statement is not only indifference to the fate of the people of Gaza and further oppression of the Palestinian people, but also a new manifestation of U.S. global hegemony and a naked challenge to the international order and regional stability. Trump’s use of US power to establish an “American-style” order on Palestinian land will undoubtedly exacerbate the already complicated political situation in the Middle East, and will further demonstrate his ambitions.

The Gaza Strip is a scenic area on the Mediterranean coast, and Trump apparently believes that if he can move its inhabitants out, he can rebuild the region to America’s advantage. The point is not whether the idea is feasible, but that Trump’s America, as the world’s current superpower, thinks so and wants to incorporate into the United States any place that is profitable, be it Canada, Greenland, Gaza, or Panama. The United Nations has been gradually weakened over the last two decades and if Trump moves forward in this manner, there will be nothing left but an empty shell in this period. The same fate may befall international law and treaties as a human legacy.

Trump Announces Plan to Take Over Gaza, Shocking the International Community

The Long fight between Democracy and Dictatorship

Democracy, which gives power to the people, aligns the interests of the rulers and the ruled, and brings freedom, justice and equality, is considered by many to be a political panacea. Many people believe that democracy is a political panacea. Regrettably, ever since the birth of democracy, there have been endless doubts about it, the most typical one being “Hitler was also elected by the German people one vote at a time”. Democracy is by no means indestructible. The defeat of democracy in the ancient Greek city-state of Athens by the authoritarian regime of Sparta notwithstanding, the third wave of democratization has seen a return to authoritarianism. Some important countries have seen the emergence of powerful political figures with authoritarian overtones in their democracies. Apart from Vladimir Putin, there are also the likes of Modi in India, Erdogan in Turkey, and Orban in Hungary, who have been re-elected several times and practiced authoritarian rule internally. Some other countries have simply staged coups to overthrow their elected governments and practiced military dictatorship, such as Myanmar. In recent years, in developed countries such as Europe, a number of far-right regimes have come to power.

Since the Obama years, the two-party politics in the United States have gradually become polarized and torn internally. In the four years of Trump and Biden, this phenomenon has become more and more obvious, and has gradually become an extreme confrontation, and the dysfunction and disorder of the American democracy has worsened. The New York Review of Books has published an article pointing out that the United States is already a “nation of two”, with the Republican Party and the Democratic Party leading two sharply opposed national groups, each forming a federal government, and the United States of America has become a “divided nation of the United States of America”.

Due opposition is, of course, part of a democratic system of government, and only in this way can the ruling party be checked and balanced. However, opposition for the sake of opposition often paralyzes government operations and prevents effective policy agendas from moving forward. This is the dilemma of American democracy today, and it is also the common dilemma of human beings who have yet to find a viable path in the development of civilization. Donald Trump has once again won the presidential election, and the Republican Party is still dominant in the House of Representatives and the Senate. With no congressional constraints and no pressure to be re-elected, Trump has undoubtedly created a perfect opportunity for his “one voice”.

In the evolution of human civilization, “democracy” is relatively the least bad system, and history has also shown us that “democracy” can also elect “dictatorial” leaders, and has brought about global disasters in history, as in the case of Germany, where the Nazi Party was elected as the ruling party by popular vote. In recent years, from the UK’s referendum to leave the European Union, to the election of Donald Trump as president of the United States, to the rise of the far-right in Germany after the election ……, the biggest crisis in the world today may not be the financial crisis or global warming, but rather the hearts and minds of the people – the world’s growing desperation for the seemingly unsustainable model of capitalism, and with it, their loss of faith in the “voting” system of democracy. After all, the effectiveness of democracy is based on its ability to work. After all, the effectiveness of democracy is based on the rationality of the electorate, but the absurdity is that expecting the electorate to vote on the basis of their rational decisions is a near-impossible task. Now we have come to a fork in the road – the hard-earned foundations of America’s founding fathers may prevent Trump from turning the United States into a dictatorship, but with Trump’s consistent disregard for the norms of democracy, it is undeniable that America’s democracy will be jeopardized, and the world will become a much more dangerous place. Probably the only lesson mankind has learned from history is that it is impossible to learn any lessons from history.

Article/Editorial Department, Sameway Magazine

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The Second Trump Era Begins in a Big Way

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On January 20, Donald Trump was sworn in as the 47th president of the United States. In his inaugural address, he promised to usher in a new “golden age” for the United States, a speech that was both promising and contradictory, highlighting some of the opportunities and challenges that the new president will face in his second term. A series of executive orders were signed immediately after the inauguration. After Trump’s return to power, he led a team with a detailed implementation strategy and an aggressive agenda. His own rhetoric remains as unpredictable as ever, and may represent a new policy or just a temporary distraction. The second Trump era has truly begun.

Trump lays out his vision for a new ‘golden age’

Trump opened his 30-minute speech with the statement “America’s Golden Age is about to begin,” declaring that the administration’s top priority is to create a “proud, prosperous, and free nation. From political reform, economic policy, national security, foreign strategy to social culture, Trump’s inaugural speech outlined a more radical MAGA vision, emphasizing the “restoration of U.S. sovereignty” and the strengthening of the “authority of the executive”. At the center of the new “Golden Age” vision may be a leaner and tougher government, which not only marks the return of Trump’s MAGA political agenda, but also signals a major shift in the direction of U.S. policy.

Since taking office, Trump has issued a series of executive orders. Overall, the executive orders continue Trump’s previous campaign policy ideas. They dealt with immigration, environmental, and diversity initiatives, and kicked off his presidency with a strong use of power, signaling that he was about to make a dramatic reversal of existing policies. The series of executive actions were designed to roll back many of President Biden’s most important domestic policies, primarily in the areas of climate and immigration, as well as to reintroduce Trump’s agenda, which would kick-start drilling and mining for natural resources and fundamentally upend the U.S.’s global role as a refuge for refugees and immigrants.

It is worth noting that on his first day in office, Trump signed an executive order announcing that the U.S. is once again withdrawing from the Paris Climate Accord, reaffirming the current administration’s “America First” policy. The move will see the largest carbon emitter in history pull out of global efforts to combat climate change for the second time in less than a decade. The Paris Agreement was signed in 2015, in which governments agreed to limit global warming to no more than 1.5 degrees Celsius above pre-industrial levels in order to avoid the worst effects of climate change. This decision by the Trump administration will leave the U.S. as one of the few non-signatories to the Paris Agreement in the world, along with countries like Iran, Libya, and Yemen. In addition to withdrawing from the Paris Agreement, Trump has also announced that he is withdrawing again from the WHO, a statement that has significant implications for the organization.

WHO will lose arguably its most important member and by far its largest donor. The U.S. has given $1.284 billion to the WHO between 2022 and 2023, hundreds of millions more than Germany, the second largest donor, and the WHO holds an annual general meeting every five years to discuss the important agenda, member country contributions, and membership applications. Trump has already expressed his displeasure at the fact that the U.S., with a smaller population than China, is responsible for more than twice as much funding. However, more than 80% of WHO’s funding comes from voluntary donations from member countries and charitable organizations. The U.S. is indeed the largest contributor in this area, while China’s contributions are so low that Trump thinks the U.S. is being cheated. It is also true that China and developing countries have often joined forces to promote the WHO’s agenda without taking US interests into account in many of its decisions, which makes assessing the WHO’s “benefits” to the US in terms of “influence” a poor calculation. However, the original purpose of the WHO is to take care of the needs of small countries, is it not the responsibility of big countries to do so? It is only that today China has become a “powerful country”, and has been able to offer all kinds of benefits to the developing countries in the WHO to gain their support, which has led to Trump’s dissatisfaction with the WHO today.

Looking ahead to the next four years, the two withdrawals are likely to be just a prelude, and Trump is likely to withdraw from organizations such as the United Nations Relief and Works Agency for Palestine Refugees in the Near East (UN Relief and Works Agency) and the United Nations Population Fund (UNFPA), etc. After all, Trump has the experience of the past four years, and his withdrawal from the group will be more targeted. At the same time, the international organizations in which the U.S. has little interest even if it does not withdraw from them for the time being will probably “switch”, i.e., shift their center of gravity to another group, so that the so-called big group will be hollowed out.

 

Opportunity for China’s “rise” to the top

The new U.S. administration has reiterated its intention to build a prosperous economy with “America First”, and the contours of the “New Economics 2.0” have emerged. For Trump’s old rival China, from the time he officially won the election to his inauguration, he has been making intensive use of the previous 3-month transition period to cope with the situation. Since the end of September and the beginning of October last year, China has been launching a series of policies to expand domestic demand and stimulate the economy, as well as allowing the Renminbi to depreciate sharply to stabilize trade and stockpile gold. In addition, China is moving closer to and improving relations with Japan, and is no longer at loggerheads with India and Australia. It is clear that Beijing’s strategy is to get closer to the three members of the Quadrilateral Security Dialogue between the US, Japan, India and Australia. But from a strategic perspective, these countries will not suddenly fall into the Chinese camp with the arrival of Donald Trump, and their alliance is unlikely to be weakened.

The newly appointed U.S. Secretary of State, Marco Rubio, even held his first call with Chinese Foreign Minister Wang Yi, a member of the Political Bureau of the Central Committee of the Communist Party of China (CPC), in a “direct ball game” on Friday, emphasizing that the U.S. has “serious concerns” about China’s coercive actions against Taiwan, while Wang stressed China’s principled stance on Taiwan and asked the U.S. side to “deal with it with caution”. Obviously, this is the first step in the U.S.-China exchange, where both sides are exploring each other’s bottom line and drawing out each other’s red lines first. The reality is that despite Taiwan President Lai Ching-te’s recent trip, which included a visit to the U.S., the situation in the Taiwan Strait has calmed down a bit compared to the past.

As Trump announces plans to withdraw from various international organizations and agreements, China, on the other hand, may gradually position itself as a global leader and seize the opportunity to fill the void left by the United States on the world stage. Trump’s “withdrawal” puts into question the future of global public health responses and climate goals, but also leaves a leadership vacuum that China may try to fill. Chinese President Xi Jinping and Russian President Vladimir Putin emphasized their continued alliance in a video call hours after Trump’s inauguration. Meanwhile, Chinese Vice Premier Ding Xuexiang emphasized China’s commitment to tackling climate change at the annual meeting of the World Economic Forum in Davos, Switzerland, on Tuesday, saying that “China has always been a staunch supporter of genuine multilateralism”.

China cut import tariffs on hundreds of goods this month as Trump threatened to impose higher tariffs on China, Canada and Mexico, among others. Regardless of the motivation, other countries may be strengthening their ties with China while the US is distancing itself. After all, U.S. isolationism means that other countries will have to choose between alliances with the U.S. or some multi-polar option – which could include the BRICS countries, of which China and Russia are both members. The role of the United States and China in the international community over the next four years is not yet clear.

 

Domestic and Diplomatic Tensions

On his first day in office, Trump signed an executive order imposing a 25% tariff on Canada and Mexico, had a heated discussion with the Danish Prime Minister about Greenland’s sovereignty, and immediately threatened the President of Colombia over the deportation of illegal immigrants, etc., which shows that the US, along with other countries, will be forced by Trump to pursue a domestic policy that Trump believes is necessary to make the US strong again, and which will inevitably bring about conflicts in the US’s relations with other countries. Trump has also made it clear that he does not take these diplomatic relations seriously, and I believe that this will soon bring about a drastic and rapid change in global political and economic cooperation.

It is safe to say that the world will soon be in a position to reposition itself.

 

Avoiding a full-blown global conflict

As Trump promised during his campaign, if he wins the election, he will not send Americans to fight abroad and will do his utmost to avoid the outbreak of World War III. In the early days of his presidency, Trump has issued a series of executive decrees to overthrow his predecessor on the domestic front, and he has also been vocal on the diplomatic front.

A few days ago, Trump has issued a warning that he will impose high tariffs and further sanctions on Russia if Vladimir Putin does not end the war in Ukraine. He wrote on his social media platform, Truth Social, that by pushing for a resolution to the war he was doing Russia and its president a ‘very big favor’. Trump has previously said he would reach a solution to the issue of a full-scale invasion by Russia in February 2022 within a day. Russia has not yet responded to those comments, but recently senior Russian officials said there was little chance Moscow would deal with the new U.S. administration. Trump has also hinted that he is prepared to join forces with China to end Russia’s war on Ukraine as a way to increase pressure on Russian President Vladimir Putin to negotiate a truce. Weeks before Putin’s 2022 invasion of Ukraine, the two leaders declared that there was no ceiling on Sino-Russian friendship, with China serving as Moscow’s diplomatic and economic lifeline in the wake of sweeping sanctions against Russia imposed by the United States and its allies.

On Israel’s Gaza war, which has been going on for more than a year, Trump described the Gaza Strip as a “demolition site” after Israel’s war with Hamas. He said he was considering proposing a ‘Gaza clean-up plan’, calling on Egypt and Jordan to take in Palestinians from Gaza and allow Palestinians to ‘live a quiet life’ in order to realize peace in the Middle East. But the proposal has been rejected by Hamas, the Palestinian militant organization that controls the Gaza Strip. Israel denies any plans to force Gazans to move, but some far-right members of the Israeli government openly support a mass exodus of Gazans from Palestinian territory. A week ago, a ceasefire agreement was reached, which led to the release of some Israeli hostages by Hamas in exchange for Israel’s release of imprisoned Palestinian prisoners.

As a result of Trump’s isolationist approach, attitudes towards American power and its global role have changed: The United States is no longer seen as a global defender of its values and as a defender of the liberal international order. The fact that Trump did not mention allies or friends in his inaugural speech shows that he still prioritizes domestic affairs. He has made it clear on several occasions that he wants Europe to spend more on defense, and the threat of tariffs adds more uncertainty to the transatlantic relationship, but it could also be an impetus for positive change. Over the next four years, perhaps the United States will join other powers in a multipolar world, each taking responsibility for its own interests and seeking to build new relationships in a more transactional world for long-term peace and development.

 

Editorial Department, Sameway Magazine

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