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Documents reveal almost 145,000 Australians will lose support for autism under NDIS reforms

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Almost 145,000 Australians receiving support for autism on the national disability insurance scheme (NDIS) are expected to be removed by the end of the decade, internal estimates show, as the federal government moves ahead with plans to narrow the focus of the “diluted” $52bn scheme toward those with significant and complex needs.

From 2028, almost two-thirds of the 241,000 participants set to lose access to the NDIS will be aged 18 or under, health department documents released to Guardian Australia under freedom of information laws show.

The changes are part of the Albanese government’s endeavour to get the NDIS “back on track” financially and are expected to pass when parliament returns next month despite fierce criticism from advocates and politicians. The government estimates the $52bn-a-year scheme will more than double in cost to $117bn a year in a decade’s time without intervention.

People with autism are the fastest-growing cohort of the NDIS, making up 42% of the entire scheme. The majority (68%) of autistic participants who were given access to the scheme in the quarter ending in December 2025 were under 14. The health department expects 241,000 NDIS participants will eventually be shifted off the scheme by June 2031 following the introduction of the functional capacity test, to keep the number of participants at about 600,000. During that period, an additional 105,000 will be stopped from entering the scheme.

When asked by Guardian Australia if there were any planned programs for teenage Australians with autism, a government spokesperson did not address the question directly. The NDIS minister, Mark Butler, has repeatedly said the scheme is only intended for people with “significant and permanent disability”.

The Thriving Kids program, jointly funded by federal and state governments, will begin offering support in October to children under nine with mild developmental delays and autism who are shifted off the NDIS.

A parliamentary human rights committee’s report in June looked at the government’s proposed changes to wind back the size of the disability funding lifeline for many Australians, warning they could be retrogressive and limit human rights for some. In a submission to a parliamentary inquiry into the bill, the grassroots autism advocacy group Autism Aspergers Advocacy Australia warned a functional capacity test for autistic people would be “especially problematic”, as no one has created a tool for functional assessment of autistic subjects though many have tried, and so there is no reason at all to expect that the NDIS will succeed.

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Fitzroy North vegan cafe falls victim to firebombing

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Within three months of beginning to serve customers, early on Monday morning 12 October, the cafe And Bodega run by Ashish Sharma and Manali Purohit was severely damaged in a suspected arson attack that gutted the tobacco shop next door that had opened in recent weeks.

The day after the firebombing, about $5,000 worth of technology and equipment was stolen from the burnt-out cafe. When the couple entered the shop after the robbery, Sharma says it felt as if their “dream had been ripped away”. It comes amid a spate of firebombings targeting tobacconists across Melbourne, with hundreds hit since late 2023.

Emergency services were called to respond to reports of an explosion on St Georges Road at about 3.40am on Monday. Police investigators believe one or multiple offenders forced entry into the tobacco shop and set it alight. The tobacconist was completely destroyed, while And Bodega and other neighbouring businesses were damaged, police said in a statement. The Victorian Coalition this week said the state government’s new closure powers “had barely made a dent” and vowed that if elected next month it would bolster laws and increase police presence to close down illegal retailers.

The couple have set up a crowdfunding campaign to raise funds for repairing and replacing equipment, paying outstanding staff and supplier costs and planning a new home for And Bodega. Purohit, who grew up in Mumbai and trained as a pastry chef in India, says the couple have also received offers from fellow small businesses to donate portions of their profits to the couple, host fundraisers and drop off ice-cream.

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Australian industry reliant on gas for ‘foreseeable future’

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The resources minister, Madeleine King, says Australian industry will be reliant on gas for the “foreseeable future”, and that the national gas reservation scheme will push down power prices.

But she did not put a price tag on the cost of gas under the proposal – as the former opposition leader Peter Dutton once did – nor predict when households and businesses would start to see that financial relief.

In an address to the National Press Club on Wednesday, King said keeping gas affordable for households and businesses was a critical part of the scheme’s primary focus. She expected the scheme would “push down” gas prices without crashing the market. The national gas reservation scheme will force gas companies to set aside 20% of exports for domestic use, and is expected to come into effect from January 2028. It will give the Australian Energy Regulator the power to force companies to meet a target of 110% of projected demand each year. It will also limit ministerial discretion and replace the Turnbull-era domestic gas security mechanism.

The minister said gas was central to heating homes, keeping manufacturing industries running, processing critical minerals and rare earths domestically, and supporting the rollout of renewables. When asked whether she had a timeline to phase out Australia’s reliance on gas, King said it would continue to play an important role unless a viable replacement was found.

The shadow resources minister, Susan McDonald, said “numerous questions” remained over the design and viability of the scheme. McDonald didn’t identify particular concerns but said the bill’s greatest risk was the “capitulation of Labor to pressure from the Greens political party and noisy activists”.

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Labor condemned for bill to cut private health insurance rebate

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Labor’s bid to cut the private health insurance rebate for over-65s has been blocked in parliament, with the Greens insisting they will withhold support unless pensioners receive a carve-out from the new rules.

The proposed changes, which would take effect from April 2027, would save the federal budget $3bn. It marks another defeat for a key cost-saving measure after the government was forced to back down on its plan to cap allied health payments for veterans which would have saved $748m over three years. People who are 65 or over currently receive a larger rebate on their premium, with the rebate higher for those 70 and over.

The Greens, Coalition and crossbench senators teamed up in the Senate on Wednesday to block Labor’s bill. In a rare move, the bill was discharged from the upper house, meaning it will need to be reintroduced if Labor tries to push ahead.

The Greens leader, David Shoebridge, said the party would only offer its support for the changes if the government excluded pensioners. Almost 80,000 older Australians are expected to ditch their private health cover by 2028-29 as a result of the Albanese government’s proposal, according to health department modelling released under freedom of information laws.

The chief executive of the Council on the Ageing Australia, Patricia Sparrow, also rejected the planned savings being linked to aged care funding commitments. She explained that older Australians shouldn’t have to choose between protecting their health and paying for everyday essentials, nor should they be asked to choose between affordable healthcare and a properly funded aged care system.

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